A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression Analysis of Business Cycle Synchronization in East Asia and Implications for a Regional Currency Union

Debate continues over whether a monetary or currency union will be a viable alternative to the current exchange arrangements in East Asia. This paper adds to the literature by assessing the level of business cycle synchronization among 10 major East Asian economies which is considered a key precondition for a regional currency union. Unlike previous studies, this paper employs a factor-augmented vector autoregression model that characterizes a large set of 62 foreign and domestic variables simultaneously. Five common shocks are identified, and we examine how and to what extent these shocks affect each economy in the region. Empirical results indicate that the majority of East Asian economies exhibit similar responses to world and regional shocks. Of particular importance is the finding that individual gross domestic products (GDPs) are well synchronized in response to the two major determinants of world and regional GDP shocks. Overall, the evidence presents positively for consideration of a regional currency union in East Asia. Some suggestions are offered concerning steps to build a foundation towards the establishment of an East Asian currency union

Ectodysplasin target gene Fgf20 regulates mammary bud growth and ductal invasion and branching during puberty

Mammary gland development begins with the appearance of epithelial placodes that invaginate, sprout, and branch to form small arborized trees by birth. The second phase of ductal growth and branching is driven by the highly invasive structures called terminal end buds (TEBs) that form at ductal tips at the onset of puberty. Ectodysplasin (Eda), a tumor necrosis factor-like ligand, is essential for the development of skin appendages including the breast. In mice, Eda regulates mammary placode formation and branching morphogenesis, but the underlying molecular mechanisms are poorly understood. Fibroblast growth factor (Fgf) receptors have a recognized role in mammary ductal development and stem cell maintenance, but the ligands involved are ill-defined. Here we report that Fgf20 is expressed in embryonic mammary glands and is regulated by the Eda pathway. Fgf20 deficiency does not impede mammary gland induction, but compromises mammary bud growth, as well as TEB formation, ductal outgrowth and branching during puberty. We further show that loss of Fgf20 delays formation of Eda-induced supernumerary mammary buds and normalizes the embryonic and postnatal hyperbranching phenotype of Eda overexpressing mice. These findings identify a hitherto unknown function for Fgf20 in mammary budding and branching morphogenesis.Peer reviewe

Spreading Dynamics of Polymer Nanodroplets

The spreading of polymer droplets is studied using molecular dynamics simulations. To study the dynamics of both the precursor foot and the bulk droplet, large drops of ~200,000 monomers are simulated using a bead-spring model for polymers of chain length 10, 20, and 40 monomers per chain. We compare spreading on flat and atomistic surfaces, chain length effects, and different applications of the Langevin and dissipative particle dynamics thermostats. We find diffusive behavior for the precursor foot and good agreement with the molecular kinetic model of droplet spreading using both flat and atomistic surfaces. Despite the large system size and long simulation time relative to previous simulations, we find no evidence of hydrodynamic behavior in the spreading droplet.Comment: Physical Review E 11 pages 10 figure

Weekly vs. Every-3-Week Paclitaxel and Carboplatin for Ovarian Cancer

BACKGROUND A dose-dense weekly schedule of paclitaxel (resulting in a greater frequency of drug delivery) plus carboplatin every 3 weeks or the addition of bevacizumab to paclitaxel and carboplatin administered every 3 weeks has shown efficacy in ovarian cancer. We proposed to determine whether dose-dense weekly paclitaxel and carboplatin would prolong progression-free survival as compared with paclitaxel and carboplatin administered every 3 weeks among patients receiving and those not receiving bevacizumab. METHODS We prospectively stratified patients according to whether they elected to receive bevacizumab and then randomly assigned them to receive either paclitaxel, administered intravenously at a dose of 175 mg per square meter of body-surface area every 3 weeks, plus carboplatin (dose equivalent to an area under the curve [AUC] of 6) for six cycles or paclitaxel, administered weekly at a dose of 80 mg per square meter, plus carboplatin (AUC, 6) for six cycles. The primary end point was progression-free survival. RESULTS A total of 692 patients were enrolled, 84% of whom opted to receive bevacizumab. In the intention-to-treat analysis, weekly paclitaxel was not associated with longer progression-free survival than paclitaxel administered every 3 weeks (14.7 months and 14.0 months, respectively; hazard ratio for disease progression or death, 0.89; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.74 to 1.06; P=0.18). Among patients who did not receive bevacizumab, weekly paclitaxel was associated with progression-free survival that was 3.9 months longer than that observed with paclitaxel administered every 3 weeks (14.2 vs. 10.3 months; hazard ratio, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.40 to 0.95; P=0.03). However, among patients who received bevacizumab, weekly paclitaxel did not significantly prolong progression-free survival, as compared with paclitaxel administered every 3 weeks (14.9 months and 14.7 months, respectively; hazard ratio, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.83 to 1.20; P=0.60). A test for interaction that assessed homogeneity of the treatment effect showed a significant difference between treatment with bevacizumab and without bevacizumab (P=0.047). Patients who received weekly paclitaxel had a higher rate of grade 3 or 4 anemia than did those who received paclitaxel every 3 weeks (36% vs. 16%), as well as a higher rate of grade 2 to 4 sensory neuropathy (26% vs. 18%); however, they had a lower rate of grade 3 or 4 neutropenia (72% vs. 83%). CONCLUSIONS Overall, weekly paclitaxel, as compared with paclitaxel administered every 3 weeks, did not prolong progression-free survival among patients with ovarian cancer

Artificial Neural Network Inference (ANNI): A Study on Gene-Gene Interaction for Biomarkers in Childhood Sarcomas

Objective: To model the potential interaction between previously identified biomarkers in children sarcomas using artificial neural network inference (ANNI). Method: To concisely demonstrate the biological interactions between correlated genes in an interaction network map, only 2 types of sarcomas in the children small round blue cell tumors (SRBCTs) dataset are discussed in this paper. A backpropagation neural network was used to model the potential interaction between genes. The prediction weights and signal directions were used to model the strengths of the interaction signals and the direction of the interaction link between genes. The ANN model was validated using Monte Carlo cross-validation to minimize the risk of over-fitting and to optimize generalization ability of the model. Results: Strong connection links on certain genes (TNNT1 and FNDC5 in rhabdomyosarcoma (RMS); FCGRT and OLFM1 in Ewing’s sarcoma (EWS)) suggested their potency as central hubs in the interconnection of genes with different functionalities. The results showed that the RMS patients in this dataset are likely to be congenital and at low risk of cardiomyopathy development. The EWS patients are likely to be complicated by EWS-FLI fusion and deficiency in various signaling pathways, including Wnt, Fas/Rho and intracellular oxygen. Conclusions: The ANN network inference approach and the examination of identified genes in the published literature within the context of the disease highlights the substantial influence of certain genes in sarcomas

Compartmentalized Culture of Perivascular Stroma and Endothelial Cells in a Microfluidic Model of the Human Endometrium

The endometrium is the inner lining of the uterus. Following specific cyclic hormonal stimulation, endometrial stromal fibroblasts (stroma) and vascular endothelial cells exhibit morphological and biochemical changes to support embryo implantation and regulate vascular function, respectively. Herein, we integrated a resin-based porous membrane in a dual chamber microfluidic device in polydimethylsiloxane that allows long term in vitro co-culture of human endometrial stromal and endothelial cells. This transparent, 2-m porous membrane separates the two chambers, allows for the diffusion of small molecules and enables high resolution bright field and fluorescent imaging. Within our primary human co-culture model of stromal and endothelial cells, we simulated the temporal hormone changes occurring during an idealized 28-day menstrual cycle. We observed the successful differentiation of stroma into functional decidual cells, determined by morphology as well as biochemically as measured by increased production of prolactin. By controlling the microfluidic properties of the device, we additionally found that shear stress forces promoted cytoskeleton alignment and tight junction formation in the endothelial layer. Finally, we demonstrated that the endometrial perivascular stroma model was sustainable for up to 4 weeks, remained sensitive to steroids and is suitable for quantitative biochemical analysis. Future utilization of this device will allow the direct evaluation of paracrine and endocrine crosstalk between these two cell types as well as studies of immunological events associated with normal versus disease-related endometrial microenvironments

Essays on Sellers’ Incentive for Information Disclosure

This dissertation attempts to provide a framework for understanding information asymmetry in markets by verifying the economic incentives for sellers with low-quality products to fully disclose their types, through analytic models, experimental analysis, and market data analysis. This study achieves this goal by focusing on how risk intermediaries such as third-party certifications can reduce the perceived risk of customers and encourage sellers to voluntarily reveal weaknesses of their products or services. Essay 1 explains whether, when, and how a seller with a low-quality product can disclose quality information to enhance his profitability and also increase the market demand through an analytic model and lab experiments. Essay 2 confirms the predictions of Essay 1 by verifying the economic incentives to disclose low-quality information from the sales data of various collectible items, and also shows that revealing weaknesses helps sellers more when they are selling products of higher than average quality, and that this incentive for information disclosure differs across different market circumstances. Essay 3 explicitly investigates the effect of certifications of different qualities on various market outcomes through an analytic model and an economic experiment and finds that an inaccurate certification is worse than no certification for sellers but beneficial to buyers. This essay also shows that using certification and fully disclosing quality information is the best way to increase profit under information asymmetry. Overall, this dissertation aims to contribute to both academia and industry through presenting an important theoretical basis and empirical evidences regarding various market dilemmas under information asymmetry, as it is one of the first attempts to analyze the economic incentives for sellers with low-quality products to reveal their types and understand how to design an optimal certification system to solve adverse selection issues.Doctor of Philosoph

Explaining co-movements between equity and CDS bid-ask spreads

In this paper I show that the co-movements between bid-ask spreads of equities and credit default swaps vary over time and increase over crisis periods. The co-movements are strongly related to systematic risk factors and to the theoretical debt-to-equity hedge ratio. I document that hedging and asymmetric information, besides higher funding costs and market volatility risk, are driving factors of the commonality and are significantly priced in CDS bid-ask spreads