Pathwise super-replication via Vovk's outer measure

Since Hobson's seminal paper [D. Hobson: Robust hedging of the lookback option. In: Finance Stoch. (1998)] the connection between model-independent pricing and the Skorokhod embedding problem has been a driving force in robust finance. We establish a general pricing-hedging duality for financial derivatives which are susceptible to the Skorokhod approach. Using Vovk's approach to mathematical finance we derive a model-independent super-replication theorem in continuous time, given information on finitely many marginals. Our result covers a broad range of exotic derivatives, including lookback options, discretely monitored Asian options, and options on realized variance.Comment: 18 page

Molecular Carbon Chains and Rings in TMC-1

We present mapping results in several rotational transitions of HC3N, C6H, both cyclic and linear C3H2 and C3H, towards the cyanopolyyne peak of the filamentary dense cloud TMC-1 using the IRAM 30m and MPIfR 100m telescopes. The spatial distribution of the cumulene carbon chain propadienylidene H2C3 (hereafter l-C3H2) is found to deviate significantly from the distributions of the cyclic isomer c-C3H2, HC3N, and C6H which in turn look very similar. The cyclic over linear abundance ratio of C3H2 increases by a factor of 3 across the filament, with a value of 28 at the cyanopolyyne peak. This abundance ratio is an order of magnitude larger than the range (3 to 5) we observed in the diffuse interstellar medium. The cyclic over linear abundance ratio of C3H also varies by ~2.5 in TMC-1, reaching a maximum value (13) close to the cyanopolyyne peak. These behaviors might be related to competitive processes between ion-neutral and neutral-neutral reactions for cyclic and linear species.Comment: Accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal, part I. 24 pages, including 4 tables, 7 figures, and figure caption

A polymorphism in the 3' untranslated region of the gene encoding prostaglandin endoperoxide synthase 2 is not associated with an increase in breast cancer risk: a nested case-control study

INTRODUCTION: Prostaglandins are integral components in the cellular response to inflammation, promoting cellular proliferation and angiogenesis. The enzyme responsible for the conversion of arachidonic acid to prostaglandins in response to inflammation is prostaglandin endoperoxide synthase 2/cyclo-oxygenase 2 (PTGS2/COX2). Polymorphisms in the PTGS2 gene have been associated with various diseases, including inflammatory bowel disease and cancer of the lung, colorectum, and breast. METHODS: We genotyped the five most common polymorphisms (rs20417, rs5277, rs20432, rs5275, and rs4648298) in the Nurses' Health Study (1,270 cases, 1,762 controls) to test the hypothesis that polymorphisms in PTGS2 are associated with breast cancer risk, using logistic regression analyses. The Nurses' Health Study 2 (317 cases, 634 controls) and Harvard Women's Health Study (702 cases, 703 controls) were used to further examine putative associations. RESULTS: The rs5275 polymorphism in the 3' untranslated region of the PTGS2 gene was associated with a decrease in breast cancer risk. We therefore genotyped this single-nucleotide polymorphism in the Nurses' Health Study 2 and Harvard Women's Health Study. Similar results were observed in these subsequent analyses, with no statistically significant heterogeneity in risk estimates between studies. In pooled analyses, women homozygous for the T allele at rs5275 had a 20% lower risk of breast cancer than those homozygous for the C allele (odds ratio 0.80, 95% confidence interval 0.66 to 0.97). CONCLUSION: Although this polymorphism may be associated with a decrease in breast cancer risk among Caucasian women, we provide strong evidence that it is not associated with an increased risk of breast cancer

Haplotype analysis of common variants in the BRCA1 gene and risk of sporadic breast cancer

INTRODUCTION: Truncation mutations in the BRCA1 gene cause a substantial increase in risk of breast cancer. However, these mutations are rare in the general population and account for little of the overall incidence of sporadic breast cancer. METHOD: We used whole-gene resequencing data to select haplotype tagging single nucleotide polymorphisms, and examined the association between common haplotypes of BRCA1 and breast cancer in a nested case-control study in the Nurses' Health Study (1323 cases and 1910 controls). RESULTS: One haplotype was associated with a slight increase in risk (odds ratio 1.18, 95% confidence interval 1.02–1.37). A significant interaction (P = 0.05) was seen between this haplotype, positive family history of breast cancer, and breast cancer risk. Although not statistically significant, similar interactions were observed with age at diagnosis and with menopausal status at diagnosis; risk tended to be higher among younger, pre-menopausal women. CONCLUSIONS: We have described a haplotype in the BRCA1 gene that was associated with an approximately 20% increase in risk of sporadic breast cancer in the general population. However, the functional variant(s) responsible for the association are unclear

T.I.M.S: TaqMan Information Management System, tools to organize data flow in a genotyping laboratory

BACKGROUND: Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP) genotyping is a major activity in biomedical research. The Taqman technology is one of the most commonly used approaches. It produces large amounts of data that are difficult to process by hand. Laboratories not equipped with a Laboratory Information Management System (LIMS) need tools to organize the data flow. RESULTS: We propose a package of Visual Basic programs focused on sample management and on the parsing of input and output TaqMan files. The code is written in Visual Basic, embedded in the Microsoft Office package, and it allows anyone to have access to those tools, without any programming skills and with basic computer requirements. CONCLUSION: We have created useful tools focused on management of TaqMan genotyping data, a critical issue in genotyping laboratories whithout a more sophisticated and expensive system, such as a LIMS

Analysis of Control Strategies for Aircraft Flight Upset Recovery

This paper proposes a framework for studying the ability of a control strategy, consisting of a control law and a command law, to recover an aircraft from ight conditions that may extend beyond the normal ight envelope. This study was carried out (i) by evaluating time responses of particular ight upsets, (ii) by evaluating local stability over an equilibrium manifold that included stall, and (iii) by bounding the set in the state space from where the vehicle can be safely own to wings-level ight. These states comprise what will be called the safely recoverable ight envelope (SRFE), which is a set containing the aircraft states from where a control strategy can safely stabilize the aircraft. By safe recovery it is implied that the tran- sient response stays between prescribed limits before converging to a steady horizontal ight. The calculation of the SRFE bounds yields the worst-case initial state corresponding to each control strategy. This information is used to compare alternative recovery strategies, determine their strengths and limitations, and identify the most e ective strategy. In regard to the control law, the authors developed feedback feedforward laws based on the gain scheduling of multivariable controllers. In regard to the command law, which is the mechanism governing the exogenous signals driving the feed- forward component of the controller, we developed laws with a feedback structure that combines local stability and transient response considera- tions. The upset recovery of the Generic Transport Model, a sub-scale twin-engine jet vehicle developed by NASA Langley Research Center, is used as a case study

Long term (5 Year) safety of bronchial thermoplasty: Asthma Intervention Research (AIR) trial

<b>Background:</b> Bronchial thermoplasty (BT) is a bronchoscopic procedure that improves asthma control by reducing excess airway smooth muscle. Treated patients have been followed out to 5 years to evaluate long-term safety of this procedure. <br></br> <br></br> <b>Methods:</b> Patients enrolled in the Asthma Intervention Research Trial were on inhaled corticosteroids ≥200 μg beclomethasone or equivalent + long-acting-beta2-agonists and demonstrated worsening of asthma on long-acting-β2-agonist withdrawal. Following initial evaluation at 1 year, subjects were invited to participate in a 4 year safety study. Adverse events (AEs) and spirometry data were used to assess long-term safety out to 5 years post-BT. <br></br> <br></br> <b>Results:</b> 45 of 52 treated and 24 of 49 control group subjects participated in long-term follow-up of 5 years and 3 years respectively. The rate of respiratory adverse events (AEs/subject) was stable in years 2 to 5 following BT (1.2, 1.3, 1.2, and 1.1, respectively,). There was no increase in hospitalizations or emergency room visits for respiratory symptoms in Years 2, 3, 4, and 5 compared to Year 1. The FVC and FEV1 values showed no deterioration over the 5 year period in the BT group. Similar results were obtained for the Control group. <br></br><br></br> <b>Conclusions:</b> The absence of clinical complications (based on AE reporting) and the maintenance of stable lung function (no deterioration of FVC and FEV1) over a 5-year period post-BT in this group of patients with moderate to severe asthma support the long-term safety of the procedure out to 5 years