Potential mammalian filovirus reservoirs

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol10no12/04-0346.htmEbola and Marburg viruses are maintained in unknown reservoir species; spillover into human populations results in occasional human cases or epidemics. We attempted to narrow the list of possibilities regarding the identity of those reservoir species. We made a series of explicit assumptions about the reservoir: it is a mammal; it supports persistent, largely asymptomatic filovirus infections; its range subsumes that of its associated filovirus; it has coevolved with the virus; it is of small body size; and it is not a species that is commensal with humans. Under these assumptions, we developed priority lists of mammal clades that coincide distributionally with filovirus outbreak distributions and compared these lists with those mammal taxa that have been tested for filovirus infection in previous epidemiologic studies. Studying the remainder of these taxa may be a fruitful avenue for pursuing the identity of natural reservoirs of filoviruses

Geographic potential for outbreaks of Marburg hemorrhagic fever

Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg., 75(1), 2006, pp. 9–15 Copyright © 2006 by The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 9 http://www.ajtmh.org/cgi/content/abstract/75/1/9Marburg virus represents one of the least well-known of the hemorrhagic fever-causing viruses worldwide; in particular, its geographic potential in Africa remains quite mysterious. Ecologic niche modeling was used to explore the geographic and ecologic potential of Marburg virus in Africa. Model results permitted a reinterpretation of the geographic point of infection in the initiation of the 1975 cases in Zimbabwe, and also anticipated the potential for cases in Angola, where a large outbreak recently (2004–2005) occurred. The geographic potential for additional outbreaks is outlined, including in several countries in which the virus is not known. Overall, results demonstrate that ecologic niche modeling can be a powerful tool in understanding geographic distributions of species and other biologic phenomena such as zoonotic disease transmission from natural reservoir populations

Effects of georeferencing effort on mapping monkeypox case distributions and transmission risk

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Maps of disease occurrences and GIS-based models of disease transmission risk are increasingly common, and both rely on georeferenced diseases data. Automated methods for georeferencing disease data have been widely studied for developed countries with rich sources of geographic referenced data. However, the transferability of these methods to countries without comparable geographic reference data, particularly when working with historical disease data, has not been as widely studied. Historically, precise geographic information about where individual cases occur has been collected and stored verbally, identifying specific locations using place names. Georeferencing historic data is challenging however, because it is difficult to find appropriate geographic reference data to match the place names to. Here, we assess the degree of care and research invested in converting textual descriptions of disease occurrence locations to numerical grid coordinates (latitude and longitude). Specifically, we develop three datasets from the same, original monkeypox disease occurrence data, with varying levels of care and effort: the first based on an automated web-service, the second improving on the first by reference to additional maps and digital gazetteers, and the third improving still more based on extensive consultation of legacy surveillance records that provided considerable additional information about each case. To illustrate the implications of these seemingly subtle improvements in data quality, we develop ecological niche models and predictive maps of monkeypox transmission risk based on each of the three occurrence data sets.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We found macrogeographic variations in ecological niche models depending on the type of georeferencing method used. Less-careful georeferencing identified much smaller areas as having potential for monkeypox transmission in the Sahel region, as well as around the rim of the Congo Basin. These results have implications for mapping efforts, as each higher level of georeferencing precision required considerably greater time investment.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The importance of careful georeferencing cannot be overlooked, despite it being a time- and labor-intensive process. Investment in archival storage of primary disease-occurrence data is merited, and improved digital gazetteers are needed to support public health mapping activities, particularly in developing countries, where maps and geographic information may be sparse.</p

Ecology and Geography of Human Monkeypox Case Occurences Across Africa

This is the published version. The original is available from http://www.jwildlifedis.org/content/48/2/335.full.pdf+htmlAs ecologic niche modeling (ENM) evolves as a tool in spatial epidemiology and public health, selection of the most appropriate and informative environmental data sets becomes increasingly important. Here, we build on a previous ENM analysis of the potential distribution of human monkeypox in Africa by refining georeferencing criteria and using more-diverse environmental data to identify environmental parameters contributing to monkeypox distributional ecology. Significant environmental variables include annual precipitation, several temperature-related variables, primary productivity, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and pH. The potential distribution identified with this set of variables was broader than that identified in previous analyses but does not include areas recently found to hold monkeypox in southern Sudan. Our results emphasize the importance of selecting the most appropriate and informative environmental data sets for ENM analyses in pathogen transmission mapping

Ecological Niche and Geographic Distribution of Human Monkeypox in Africa

Monkeypox virus, a zoonotic member of the genus Orthopoxviridae, can cause a severe, smallpox-like illness in humans. Monkeypox virus is thought to be endemic to forested areas of western and Central Africa. Considerably more is known about human monkeypox disease occurrence than about natural sylvatic cycles of this virus in non-human animal hosts. We use human monkeypox case data from Africa for 1970–2003 in an ecological niche modeling framework to construct predictive models of the ecological requirements and geographic distribution of monkeypox virus across West and Central Africa. Tests of internal predictive ability using different subsets of input data show the model to be highly robust and suggest that the distinct phylogenetic lineages of monkeypox in West Africa and Central Africa occupy similar ecological niches. High mean annual precipitation and low elevations were shown to be highly correlated with human monkeypox disease occurrence. The synthetic picture of the potential geographic distribution of human monkeypox in Africa resulting from this study should support ongoing epidemiologic and ecological studies, as well as help to guide public health intervention strategies to areas at highest risk for human monkeypox

Potential Mammalian Filovirus Reservoirs

Biologic principles and explicit assumptions reduce the range of possibilities in identifying the reservoir of filoviruse

Mapping Monkeypox Transmission Risk through Time and Space in the Congo Basin

Monkeypox is a major public health concern in the Congo Basin area, with changing patterns of human case occurrences reported in recent years. Whether this trend results from better surveillance and detection methods, reduced proportions of vaccinated vs. non-vaccinated human populations, or changing environmental conditions remains unclear. Our objective is to examine potential correlations between environment and transmission of monkeypox events in the Congo Basin. We created ecological niche models based on human cases reported in the Congo Basin by the World Health Organization at the end of the smallpox eradication campaign, in relation to remotely-sensed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index datasets from the same time period. These models predicted independent spatial subsets of monkeypox occurrences with high confidence; models were then projected onto parallel environmental datasets for the 2000s to create present-day monkeypox suitability maps. Recent trends in human monkeypox infection are associated with broad environmental changes across the Congo Basin. Our results demonstrate that ecological niche models provide useful tools for identification of areas suitable for transmission, even for poorly-known diseases like monkeypox.This research was supported by the National Institutes of Health grant 1R01TW008859-01 ("Sylvatic Reservoirs of Human Monkeypox"). Use of trade, product, or firm names does not imply endorsement by the United States Government. The findings and conclusions in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Assessing Monkeypox Virus Prevalence in Small Mammals at the Human-Animal Interface in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

During 2012, 2013 and 2015, we collected small mammals within 25 km of the town of Boende in Tshuapa Province, the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The prevalence of monkeypox virus (MPXV) in this area is unknown; however, cases of human infection were previously confirmed near these collection sites. Samples were collected from 353 mammals (rodents, shrews, pangolins, elephant shrews, a potamogale, and a hyrax). Some rodents and shrews were captured from houses where human monkeypox cases have recently been identified, but most were trapped in forests and agricultural areas near villages. Real-time PCR and ELISA were used to assess evidence of MPXV infection and other Orthopoxvirus (OPXV) infections in these small mammals. Seven (2.0%) of these animal samples were found to be anti-orthopoxvirus immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibody positive (six rodents: two Funisciurus spp.; one Graphiurus lorraineus; one Cricetomys emini; one Heliosciurus sp.; one Oenomys hypoxanthus, and one elephant shrew Petrodromus tetradactylus); no individuals were found positive in PCR-based assays. These results suggest that a variety of animals can be infected with OPXVs, and that epidemiology studies and educational campaigns should focus on animals that people are regularly contacting, including larger rodents used as protein sources

The experience of brace treatment in children/adolescents with scoliosis

BACKGROUND: Idiopathic scoliosis is a chronic illness with several different braces used for its treatment. Brace treatment during childhood/adolescence can produce stress. There are studies supporting that it can decrease body-image perception while other studies support that it has no such effect. The purpose of this study was to explore the experience of brace treatment in children/adolescents with scoliosis. The aim was to investigate which feelings are created by the bracing experience in children/adolescents with scoliosis and what are the children/adolescents' with scoliosis opinions of the support provided to them by health-care professionals and by their families. METHODS: We conducted interviews with the help of a semi-structured interview guide in order to address the topic of the experience of brace treatment. A convenient sample of twelve children and adolescents with scoliosis was selected from patients attending follow-up appointments at the Outpatient Scoliosis Clinics of two Greek hospitals. The data was analysed using the method of content analysis. RESULTS: Patients in the sample were 10–16 years old and they were mainly females (71%). Almost all of the participants reported having to deal with stress, denial, fear, anger, and shame. They were satisfied with the information they received regarding their condition and therapy. However, the information was not accompanied by support from the health care professionals. They reported that they were receiving support mainly from their families, friends, and classmates. CONCLUSION: The present study is contributing to the development of a better understanding of significant issues related to the experience of bracing therapy. It is clear that scoliosis children/adolescents have to be provided with support during the long period of bracing. It is apparent that those children/adolescents have unmet needs for care and health professionals and policy makers should try to find a way to address those needs