Policy analysis and policy analytics

Working from a description of what policy analysis entails, we review the emergence of the recent field of analytics and how it may impact public policy making. In particular, we seek to expose current applications of, and future possibilities for, new analytic methods that can be used to support public policy problem-solving and decision processes, which we term policy analytics. We then review key contributions to this special volume, which seek to support policy making or delivery in the areas of energy planning, urban transportation planning, medical emergency planning, healthcare, social services, national security, defence, government finance allocation, understanding public opinion, and fire and police services. An identified challenge, which is specific to policy analytics, is to recognize that public sector applications must balance the need for robust and convincing analysis with the need for satisfying legitimate public expectations about transparency and opportunities for participation. This opens up a range of forms of analysis relevant to public policy distinct from those most common in business, including those that can support democratization and mediation of value conflicts within policy processes. We conclude by identifying some potential research and development issues for the emerging field of policy analytics

Clinicians’ involvement in data collection for portfolio research: impact on their clinical practice and perception of research

Background/Aims: Physiotherapists generally have a positive view of research, but have identified a number of barriers to taking part, and have expressed challenges when attempting to integrate research findings into their practice. The aim of this study was to describe the self-reported impact of collecting data for a multicentre research study on physiotherapists’ clinical practice. Methods: Convenience sampling was used to select three of 11 NHS trusts involved in the original data collection. A questionnaire was emailed to the 28 of 34 physiotherapists working within these three Trusts who collected data and for whom contact details were available. Results: A total of 21 (75%) physiotherapists completed the questionnaire. Out of the 21 physiotherapists, 15 stated they were aware of the study results; all of whom reported subsequent changes in their beliefs about prognostic factors for shoulder pain (subject of the original study) and some alteration in clinical practice. However, barriers to integrating further changes into practice were reported, including lack of time and a perception that patients would not engage with a more (bio)psychosocial approach. Overall, 85% of responders stated data collection had changed their understanding of the research process. Conclusions: Clinicians’ participation in the research process positively influenced practice. However, 29% were unaware of the results and only 33% of physiotherapists accessed the published article. There were perceived barriers to integrating results into practic

Exceptional sequence of severe thunderstorms and related flash floods in May and June 2016 in Germany – Part 1: Meteorological background

Abstract. During a 15-day episode from 26 May to 9 June 2016, Germany was affected by an exceptionally large number of severe thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall, related flash floods and creek flooding, hail, and tornadoes caused substantial losses running into billions of euros (EUR). This paper analyzes the key features of the severe thunderstorm episode using extreme value statistics, an aggregated precipitation severity index, and two different objective weather-type classification schemes. It is shown that the thunderstorm episode was caused by the interaction of high moisture content, low thermal stability, weak wind speed, and large-scale lifting by surface lows, persisting over almost 2 weeks due to atmospheric blocking. For the long-term assessment of the recent thunderstorm episode, we draw comparisons to a 55-year period (1960–2014) regarding clusters of convective days with variable length (2–15 days) based on precipitation severity, convection-favoring weather patterns, and compound events with low stability and weak flow. It is found that clusters with more than 8 consecutive convective days are very rare. For example, a 10-day cluster with convective weather patterns prevailing during the recent thunderstorm episode has a probability of less than 1 %

Applicability and accuracy of an intraoral scanner for scanning multiple implants in edentulous mandibles:A pilot study

Statement of problem. In the past 5 years, the use of intraoral digitizers has increased. However, data are lacking on the accuracy of scanning implant restorative platforms for prosthodontics with intraoral digitizers. Purpose. The purpose of this clinical pilot study was to assess the applicability and accuracy of intraoral scans by using abutments designed for scanning (scan abutments) in edentulous mandibles. Material and methods. Twenty-five participants with complete mandibular overdentures retained by 2 implants and frameworks were included in this study. Scan abutments were placed on the implants intraorally and scanned with the iTero intraoral scanner. Also, scan abutments were placed on the implant analogs of the definitive casts and scanned with an extraoral laboratory scanner (Lava Scan ST scanner). Two 3-dimensional computer-aided design models of the scan abutments with predetermined center lines were subsequently imported and registered, together with each of the scanned equivalents. The distance between the centers of the top of the scan abutments and the angulations between the scan abutments was assessed. These values were compared with the measurements made on the 3-dimensional scans ofthe definitive casts, which were the participants' original definitive casts used for fabrication of soldered bars. The threshold for distance error was established to be 100 mu m. Results. Four of the 25 intraoral scans were not suitable for research because the intraoral scanner was not able to stitch the separate scans together. Five of the 21 suitable scans demonstrated an interimplant distance error >100 Rm. Three of the 25 intraoral scans showed interimplant angulation errors >0.4 degrees. Only 1 scan showed both an acceptable interimplant distance ( Conclusions. Based on the intraoral scans obtained in this study, distance and angulation errors were too large to fabricate well-fitting frameworks on implants in edentulous mandibles. The main reason for the unreliable scans seemed to be the lack of anatomic landmarks for scanning

Projective simulation for artificial intelligence

We propose a model of a learning agent whose interaction with the environment is governed by a simulation-based projection, which allows the agent to project itself into future situations before it takes real action. Projective simulation is based on a random walk through a network of clips, which are elementary patches of episodic memory. The network of clips changes dynamically, both due to new perceptual input and due to certain compositional principles of the simulation process. During simulation, the clips are screened for specific features which trigger factual action of the agent. The scheme is different from other, computational, notions of simulation, and it provides a new element in an embodied cognitive science approach to intelligent action and learning. Our model provides a natural route for generalization to quantum-mechanical operation and connects the fields of reinforcement learning and quantum computation.Comment: 22 pages, 18 figures. Close to published version, with footnotes retaine

Predicting response to physiotherapy treatment for musculoskeletal shoulder pain: a systematic review

Abstract Background: People suffering from musculoskeletal shoulder pain are frequently referred to physiotherapy. Physiotherapy generally involves a multimodal approach to management that may include; exercise, manual therapy and techniques to reduce pain. At present it is not possible to predict which patients will respond positively to physiotherapy treatment. The purpose of this systematic review was to identify which prognostic factors are associated with the outcome of physiotherapy in the management of musculoskeletal shoulder pain. Methods: A comprehensive search was undertaken of Ovid Medline, EMBASE, CINAHL and AMED (from inception to January 2013). Prospective studies of participants with shoulder pain receiving physiotherapy which investigated the association between baseline prognostic factors and change in pain and function over time were included. Study selection, data extraction and appraisal of study quality were undertaken by two independent assessors. Quality criteria were selected from previously published guidelines to form a checklist of 24 items. The study protocol was prospectively registered onto the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews. Results: A total of 5023 titles were retrieved and screened for eligibility, 154 articles were assessed as full text and 16 met the inclusion criteria: 11 cohort studies, 3 randomised controlled trials and 2 controlled trials. Results were presented for the 9 studies meeting 13 or more of the 24 quality criteria. Clinical and statistical heterogeneity resulted in qualitative synthesis rather than meta-analysis. Three studies demonstrated that high functional disability at baseline was associated with poor functional outcome (p ≤ 0.05). Four studies demonstrated a significant association (p ≤ 0.05) between longer duration of shoulder pain and poorer outcome. Three studies, demonstrated a significant association (p ≤ 0.05) between increasing age and poorer function; three studies demonstrated no association (p > 0.05)

Adsorption and reaction of CO on (Pd–)Al2O3 and (Pd–)ZrO2: vibrational spectroscopy of carbonate formation

γ-Alumina is widely used as an oxide support in catalysis, and palladium nanoparticles supported by alumina represent one of the most frequently used dispersed metals. The surface sites of the catalysts are often probed via FTIR spectroscopy upon CO adsorption, which may result in the formation of surface carbonate species. We have examined this process in detail utilizing FTIR to monitor carbonate formation on γ-alumina and zirconia upon exposure to isotopically labelled and unlabelled CO and CO2. The same was carried out for well-defined Pd nanoparticles supported on Al2O3 or ZrO2. A water gas shift reaction of CO with surface hydroxyls was detected, which requires surface defect sites and adjacent OH groups. Furthermore, we have studied the effect of Cl synthesis residues, leading to strongly reduced carbonate formation and changes in the OH region (isolated OH groups were partly replaced or were even absent). To corroborate this finding, samples were deliberately poisoned with Cl to an extent comparable to that of synthesis residues, as confirmed by Auger electron spectroscopy. For catalysts prepared from Cl-containing precursors a new CO band at 2164 cm−1 was observed in the carbonyl region, which was ascribed to Pd interacting with Cl. Finally, the FTIR measurements were complemented by quantification of the amount of carbonates formed via chemisorption, which provides a tool to determine the concentration of reactive defect sites on the alumina surface

Evolution of Plant-Made Pharmaceuticals

The science and policy of pharmaceuticals produced and/or delivered by plants has evolved over the past twenty-one years from a backyard remedy to regulated, purified products. After seemingly frozen at Phase I human clinical trials with six orally delivered plant-made vaccines not progressing past this stage over seven years, plant-made pharmaceuticals have made a breakthrough with several purified plant-based products advancing to Phase II trials and beyond. Though fraught with the usual difficulties of pharmaceutical development, pharmaceuticals made by plants have achieved pertinent milestones albeit slowly compared to other pharmaceutical production systems and are now at the cusp of reaching the consumer. Though the current economic climate begs for cautious investment as opposed to trail blazing, it is perhaps a good time to look to the future of plant-made pharmaceutical technology to assist in planning for future developments in order not to slow this technology’s momentum. To encourage continued progress, we highlight the advances made so far by this technology, particularly the change in paradigms, comparing developmental timelines, and summarizing the current status and future possibilities of plant-made pharmaceuticals

Physiotherapy for functional motor disorders: a consensus recommendation.

BACKGROUND: Patients with functional motor disorder (FMD) including weakness and paralysis are commonly referred to physiotherapists. There is growing evidence that physiotherapy is an effective treatment, but the existing literature has limited explanations of what physiotherapy should consist of and there are insufficient data to produce evidence-based guidelines. We aim to address this issue by presenting recommendations for physiotherapy treatment. METHODS: A meeting was held between physiotherapists, neurologists and neuropsychiatrists, all with extensive experience in treating FMD. A set of consensus recommendations were produced based on existing evidence and experience. RESULTS: We recommend that physiotherapy treatment is based on a biopsychosocial aetiological framework. Treatment should address illness beliefs, self-directed attention and abnormal habitual movement patterns through a process of education, movement retraining and self-management strategies within a positive and non-judgemental context. We provide specific examples of these strategies for different symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: Physiotherapy has a key role in the multidisciplinary management of patients with FMD. There appear to be specific physiotherapy techniques which are useful in FMD and which are amenable to and require prospective evaluation. The processes involved in referral, treatment and discharge from physiotherapy should be considered carefully as a part of a treatment package

Interaction of smoking and occupational noise exposure on hearing loss: a cross-sectional study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Noise is the most common hazardous agent at workplaces. Noise induced hearing loss (NIHL) has been known since the industrial revolution. Although NIHL is permanent, irreversible and frequent, it is preventable. The economic costs of NIHL have been estimated to be about billions of dollars. Besides, cigarette smoking is a common habit worldwide, and according to some recent studies smoking and noise may act in common causal pathways for hearing loss.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A cross-sectional study was designed to study the effect of smoking on NIHL in 206 male smoker workers and 206 male non-smoker workers in a large food-producing factory, in which workers were exposed to noise levels exceeding 85dBA. To determine noise exposure level, we used sound level measurements reported by industrial hygienists.</p> <p>A qualified audiologist assessed hearing acuity by using standardized audiometric procedures assuring at least 14 h of noise avoidance.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We observed that the percentage of workers with hearing threshold differences of greater than or equal to 30 dB between 4000 Hz and 1000 Hz in both ears were 49.5% and 11.2% in smoker and non smoker groups, respectively (Odds ratio = 7.8, 95% CI = 4.7 – 13), and the percentage of workers with a hearing threshold of greater than 25dB at 4000 Hz in the better ear were 63.6% and 18.4% in smoker and non smoker groups, respectively. This difference was statistically significant after adjustment for age and exposure duration.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>It can be concluded that smoking can accelerate noise induced hearing loss, but more research is needed to understand the underlying mechanisms. Accurate follow up of smoker workers who are exposed to noise levels exceeding 85 dBA is suggested. Smokers should periodically attend educational courses on "smoking cessation", especially in noisy workplaces.</p