The utility of convection-permitting ensembles for the prediction of stationary convective bands

This study examines convection-permitting numerical simulations of four cases of terrain-locked quasi-stationary convective bands over the UK. For each case, a 2.2-km grid-length 12-member ensemble and 1.5-km grid-length deterministic forecast are analyzed, each with two different initialization times. Object-based verification is applied to determine whether the simulations capture the structure, location, timing, intensity and duration of the observed precipitation. These verification diagnostics reveal that the forecast skill varies greatly between the four cases. Although the deterministic and ensemble simulations captured some aspects of the precipitation correctly in each case, they never simultaneously captured all of them satisfactorily. In general, the models predicted banded precipitation accumulations at approximately the correct time and location, but the precipitating structures were more cellular and less persistent than the coherent quasi-stationary bands that were observed. Ensemble simulations from the two different initialization times were not significantly different, which suggests a potential benefit of time-lagging subsequent ensembles to increase ensemble size. The predictive skill of the upstream larger-scale flow conditions and the simulated precipitation on the convection-permitting grids were strongly correlated, which suggests that more accurate forecasts from the parent ensemble should improve the performance of the convection-permitting ensemble nested within it

Climatology of banded precipitation over the contiguous United States

A climatology of banded-precipitation features over the contiguous United States from 2003–2014 is constructed. A band is defined as a precipitation feature with a major axis of 100 km or greater and a ratio of major axis length to minor axis length (hereafter, aspect ratio) of 3:1 or greater. By applying an automated feature-based detection algorithm to composite radar imagery, a database of 48,916,844 precipitation features is created, of which 7,213,505 (14.8%) are bands. This algorithm produces the first climatology of precipitation bands over the contiguous United States. Banded precipitation occurrence is broadly similar to total precipitation occurrence, with a maximum of 175 hours of banded precipitation annually over the Ohio River Valley. In the warm season, there is a strong diurnal signature associated with convective storm development for both precipitation feature area and total area covered by precipitation, but little diurnal signature in aspect ratio. A strong west-east gradient in both precipitation occurrence and banded precipitation occurrence exist, as areas west of the Rockies receive less frequent precipitation, which is much less likely to be banded. East of the Rockies, precipitation features are banded 30% of the time, versus 10–15% west of the Rockies. Areas downwind of the Great Lakes show prominent late autumn and winter maxima in banded precipitation associated with lake-effect snowbands. Local maxima of banded precipitation percentage occur in the Dakotas and east of the Colorado Rockies during winter. Although banded-precipitation features comprise only 14.8% of all precipitation features, they contribute 21.9% of the annual precipitation occurrence over the contiguous United States

Climatology of size, shape and intensity of precipitation features over Great Britain and Ireland

A climatology of precipitation features (or objects) from the Great Britain and Ireland radar-derived precipitation mosaic from 2006–2015 is constructed, with features defined as contiguous areas of nonzero precipitation rates. Over the ten years, there are 54,811,747 non-unique precipitating features over 100 km2 in area, with a median precipitation-feature area of 249 km2, median major axis length of 29.2 km, median aspect ratio of 2.0, median feature mean precipitation rate of 0.49 mm h-1, and median feature maximum precipitation rate of 2.4 mm h-1. Small-scale precipitating systems are most common, but larger systems exceeding 10,000 km2 contribute close to 70% of the annual precipitation across the study region. Precipitation feature characteristics are sensitive to changes in annual and diurnal environment, with feature intensities peaking during the afternoon in summer and the largest precipitation features occurring during winter. Precipitation intensities less than 5 mm h-1 comprise 97.3% of all precipitation occurrence and contribute 83.6% of the total precipitation over land. Banded-precipitation features (defined as precipitation features with aspect ratio at least 3:1 and major axis length at least 100 km) comprise 3% of all precipitation features by occurrence, but contribute 23.7% of the total precipitation. Mesoscale banded features (defined as banded-precipitation features with major axis length at least 100 km and total area not exceeding 10,000 km2) and mesoscale convective banded features (defined as banded-precipitation features with at least 100 km2 of precipitation rates exceeding 10 mm h-1) are most prevalent in southwestern England with mesoscale convective banded features contributing up to 2% of precipitation

Multi-scale transport and exchange processes in the atmosphere over mountains. Programme and experiment

TEAMx is an international research programme that aims at improving the understanding of exchange processes in the atmosphere over mountains at multiple scales and at advancing the parameterizations of these processes in numerical models for weather and climate prediction–hence its acronyms stands for Multi-scale transport and exchange processes in the atmosphere over mountains – Programme and experiment. TEAMx is a bottom-up initiative promoted by a number of universities, research institutions and operational centres, internationally integrated through a Memorandum of Understanding between inter- ested parties. It is carried out by means of coordinated national, bi-national and multi-national research projects and supported by a Programme Coordination Office at the Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences of the University of Innsbruck, Austria. The present document, compiled by the TEAMx Programme Coordination Office, provides a concise overview of the scientific scope of TEAMx. In the interest of accessibility and readability, the document aims at being self-contained and uses only a minimum of references to scientific literature. Greyboxes at the beginning of chapters list the literature sources that provide the scientific basis of the document. This largely builds on review articles published by the journal Atmosphere between 2018 and 2019, in a special issue on Atmospheric Processes over Complex Terrain. A few other important literature pieces have been referenced where appropriate. Interested readers are encouraged to examine the large body of literature summarized and referenced in these articles. Blue boxes have been added to most sub-chapters. Their purpose is to highlight key ideas and proposals for future collaborative research

Atmospheric factors governing banded orographic convection

Atmospheric factors Governing Banded Orographic Convection The three-dimensional structure of shallow orographic convection is investigated through simulations performed with a cloud-resolving numerical model. In moist flows that overcome a given topographic barrier to form statically unstable cap clouds, the organization of the convection depends on both the atmospheric structure and the mechanism by which the convection is initiated. Convection initiated by background thermal fluctuations embedded in the flow over a smooth mountain (without any small-scale topographic features) tends to be cellular and disorganized except that shear-parallel bands may form in flows with strong unidirectional vertical shear. The development of well-organized bands is favored when there is weak static instability inside the cloud and when the dry air surrounding the cloud is strongly stable. These bands move with the flow and distribute their cumulative precipitation evenly over the mountain upslope. Similar shear-parallel bands also develop in flows where convection is initiated by small-scale topographic noise superimposed onto the main mountain profile, but in this case stronger circulations are also triggered that create stationary rainbands parallel to the low-level flow. This second dominant mode, which is less sensitive to the atmospheric structure and the strength of forcing, is triggered by lee waves that form over small-scale topographic bumps near the upstream edge of the main orographic cloud. Due to their stationarity, these flow-parallel bands can produce locally heavy precipitation amounts