Bayesian variants of some classical semiparametric regression techniques

This paper develops new Bayesian methods for semiparametric inference in the partial linear Normal regression model: y=zβ+f(x)+var epsilon where f(.) is an unknown function. These methods draw solely on the Normal linear regression model with natural conjugate prior. Hence, posterior results are available which do not suffer from some problems which plague the existing literature such as computational complexity. Methods for testing parametric regression models against semiparametric alternatives are developed. We discuss how these methods can, at some cost in terms of computational complexity, be extended to other models (e.g. qualitative choice models or those involving censoring or truncation) and provide precise details for a semiparametric probit model. We show how the assumption of Normal errors can easily be relaxed

Relationship Between Maternal Behavior During Pregnancy, Birth Outcome, and Early Childhood Development: An Exploratory Study

This study examines the relationship between maternal behavior during pregnancy, birth outcomes, and early childhood development. Specifically, in the context of four measures of maternal behavior during pregnancy (maternal smoking, drinking, prenatal care, and maternal weight gain), three measures of birth outcome (gestational age, birth length, and birth weight), and 32 exogenous covariates observed during pregnancy, we investigate the importance of maternal choices during pregnancy and birth outcomes in forecasting child health (as indicated by height and weight), child behavioral problems, and a child math/reading test score at age five or six. Strikingly, birth outcomes have virtually no structural/causal effects on early childhood developmental outcomes, and only maternal smoking and drinking during pregnancy have some effects on child height. Not surprisingly, family child-rearing environment has sizeable negative and positive effects on behavioral problems index and math/reading test score, respectively, and a mildly surprising negative effect on child height.endogeneity, birth weight, NLSY, prediction, simultaneous equations

Dynamic and Structural Features of Intifada Violence: A Markov Process Approach

This paper analyzes the daily incidence of violence during the Second Intifada. We compare several alternative statistical models with different dynamic and structural stability characteristics while keeping modelling complexity to a minimum by only maintaining the assumption that the process under consideration is at most a second order discrete Markov process. For the pooled data, the best model is one with asymmetric dynamics, where one Israeli and two Palestinian lags determine the conditional probability of violence. However, when we allow for structural change, the evidence strongly favors the hypothesis of structural instability across political regime sub-periods, within which dynamics are generally weak.Bayesian; Conjugate prior; Israeli-Palestinian conflict; Marginal likelihood

An Econometric Model of Birth Inputs and Outputs

No abstract.

Semiparametric Bayesian inference in multiple equation models

This paper outlines an approach to Bayesian semiparametric regression in multiple equation models which can be used to carry out inference in seemingly unrelated regressions or simultaneous equations models with nonparametric components. The approach treats the points on each nonparametric regression line as unknown parameters and uses a prior on the degree of smoothness of each line to ensure valid posterior inference despite the fact that the number of parameters is greater than the number of observations. We develop an empirical Bayesian approach that allows us to estimate the prior smoothing hyperparameters from the data. An advantage of our semiparametric model is that it is written as a seemingly unrelated regressions model with independent normal-Wishart prior. Since this model is a common one, textbook results for posterior inference, model comparison, prediction and posterior computation are immediately available. We use this model in an application involving a two-equation structural model drawn from the labour and returns to schooling literatures

Spline lags : why the Almon lag has gone to pieces / 235

Includes bibliographical references (p. 37-39)

Managing childhood fever and pain – the comfort loop

Parents can transmit their anxiety to their child, and just as children can pick up on parental anxiety, they can also respond to a parent's ability to stay calm in stressful situations. Therefore, when treating children, it is important to address parental anxiety and to improve their understanding of their child's ailment. Parental understanding and management of both pain and fever – common occurrences in childhood – is of utmost importance, not just in terms of children's health and welfare, but also in terms of reducing the economic burden of unnecessary visits to paediatric emergency departments. Allaying parental anxiety reduces the child's anxiety and creates a positive feedback loop, which ultimately affects both the child and parent

Use of statins and the risk of dementia and mild cognitive impairment: A systematic review and meta-analysis

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate whether the use of statins could be associated with the risk of all-caused dementia, Alzheimer’s disease (AD), vascular dementia (VaD), and mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Major electronic databases were searched until December 27th, 2017 for studies investigating use of statins and incident cognitive decline in adults. Random-effects meta-analyses calculating relative risks (RRs) were conducted to synthesize effect sizes of individual studies. Twenty-five studies met eligibility criteria. Use of statins was significantly associated with a reduced risk of all-caused dementia (k = 16 studies, adjusted RR (aRR) = 0.849, 95% CI = 0.787–0.916, p = 0.000), AD (k = 14, aRR = 0.719, 95% CI = 0.576–0.899, p = 0.004), and MCI (k = 6, aRR = 0.737, 95% CI = 0.556–0.976, p = 0.033), but no meaningful effects on incident VaD (k = 3, aRR = 1.012, 95% CI = 0.620–1.652, p = 0.961). Subgroup analysis suggested that hydrophilic statins were associated with reduced risk of all-caused dementia (aRR = 0.877; CI = 0.818–0.940; p = 0.000) and possibly lower AD risk (aRR = 0.619; CI = 0.383–1.000; p = 0.050). Lipophilic statins were associated with reduced risk of AD (aRR = 0.639; CI = 0.449–0.908; p = 0.013) but not all-caused dementia (aRR = 0.738; CI = 0.475–1.146; p = 0.176). In conclusion, our meta-analysis suggests that the use of statins may reduce the risk of all-type dementia, AD, and MCI, but not of incident VaD