Development of Risk Prediction Equations for Incident Chronic Kidney Disease

IMPORTANCE ‐ Early identification of individuals at elevated risk of developing chronic kidney disease  could improve clinical care through enhanced surveillance and better management of underlying health  conditions.  OBJECTIVE – To develop assessment tools to identify individuals at increased risk of chronic kidney  disease, defined by reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR).  DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS – Individual level data analysis of 34 multinational cohorts from  the CKD Prognosis Consortium including 5,222,711 individuals from 28 countries. Data were collected  from April, 1970 through January, 2017. A two‐stage analysis was performed, with each study first  analyzed individually and summarized overall using a weighted average. Since clinical variables were  often differentially available by diabetes status, models were developed separately within participants  with diabetes and without diabetes. Discrimination and calibration were also tested in 9 external  cohorts (N=2,253,540). EXPOSURE Demographic and clinical factors.  MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES – Incident eGFR <60 ml/min/1.73 m2.  RESULTS – In 4,441,084 participants without diabetes (mean age, 54 years, 38% female), there were  660,856 incident cases of reduced eGFR during a mean follow‐up of 4.2 years. In 781,627 participants  with diabetes (mean age, 62 years, 13% female), there were 313,646 incident cases during a mean follow‐up of 3.9 years. Equations for the 5‐year risk of reduced eGFR included age, sex, ethnicity, eGFR, history of cardiovascular disease, ever smoker, hypertension, BMI, and albuminuria. For participants  with diabetes, the models also included diabetes medications, hemoglobin A1c, and the interaction  between the two. The risk equations had a median C statistic for the 5‐year predicted probability of  0.845 (25th – 75th percentile, 0.789‐0.890) in the cohorts without diabetes and 0.801 (25th – 75th percentile, 0.750‐0.819) in the cohorts with diabetes. Calibration analysis showed that 9 out of 13 (69%) study populations had a slope of observed to predicted risk between 0.80 and 1.25. Discrimination was  similar in 18 study populations in 9 external validation cohorts; calibration showed that 16 out of 18 (89%) had a slope of observed to predicted risk between 0.80 and 1.25. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE – Equations for predicting risk of incident chronic kidney disease developed in over 5 million people from 34 multinational cohorts demonstrated high discrimination and  variable calibration in diverse populations

Ruxolitinib for Glucocorticoid-Refractory Acute Graft-versus-Host Disease

BACKGROUND: Acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) remains a major limitation of allogeneic stem-cell transplantation; not all patients have a response to standard glucocorticoid treatment. In a phase 2 trial, ruxolitinib, a selective Janus kinase (JAK1 and JAK2) inhibitor, showed potential efficacy in patients with glucocorticoid-refractory acute GVHD. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter, randomized, open-label, phase 3 trial comparing the efficacy and safety of oral ruxolitinib (10 mg twice daily) with the investigator's choice of therapy from a list of nine commonly used options (control) in patients 12 years of age or older who had glucocorticoid-refractory acute GVHD after allogeneic stem-cell transplantation. The primary end point was overall response (complete response or partial response) at day 28. The key secondary end point was durable overall response at day 56. RESULTS: A total of 309 patients underwent randomization; 154 patients were assigned to the ruxolitinib group and 155 to the control group. Overall response at day 28 was higher in the ruxolitinib group than in the control group (62% [96 patients] vs. 39% [61]; odds ratio, 2.64; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.65 to 4.22; P<0.001). Durable overall response at day 56 was higher in the ruxolitinib group than in the control group (40% [61 patients] vs. 22% [34]; odds ratio, 2.38; 95% CI, 1.43 to 3.94; P<0.001). The estimated cumulative incidence of loss of response at 6 months was 10% in the ruxolitinib group and 39% in the control group. The median failure-free survival was considerably longer with ruxolitinib than with control (5.0 months vs. 1.0 month; hazard ratio for relapse or progression of hematologic disease, non-relapse-related death, or addition of new systemic therapy for acute GVHD, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.35 to 0.60). The median overall survival was 11.1 months in the ruxolitinib group and 6.5 months in the control group (hazard ratio for death, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.60 to 1.15). The most common adverse events up to day 28 were thrombocytopenia (in 50 of 152 patients [33%] in the ruxolitinib group and 27 of 150 [18%] in the control group), anemia (in 46 [30%] and 42 [28%], respectively), and cytomegalovirus infection (in 39 [26%] and 31 [21%]). CONCLUSIONS: Ruxolitinib therapy led to significant improvements in efficacy outcomes, with a higher incidence of thrombocytopenia, the most frequent toxic effect, than that observed with control therapy

Human knockouts and phenotypic analysis in a cohort with a high rate of consanguinity

A major goal of biomedicine is to understand the function of every gene in the human genome. Loss-of-function mutations can disrupt both copies of a given gene in humans and phenotypic analysis of such 'human knockouts' can provide insight into gene function. Consanguineous unions are more likely to result in offspring carrying homozygous loss-of-function mutations. In Pakistan, consanguinity rates are notably high. Here we sequence the protein-coding regions of 10,503 adult participants in the Pakistan Risk of Myocardial Infarction Study (PROMIS), designed to understand the determinants of cardiometabolic diseases in individuals from South Asia. We identified individuals carrying homozygous predicted loss-of-function (pLoF) mutations, and performed phenotypic analysis involving more than 200 biochemical and disease traits. We enumerated 49,138 rare (<1% minor allele frequency) pLoF mutations. These pLoF mutations are estimated to knock out 1,317 genes, each in at least one participant. Homozygosity for pLoF mutations at PLA2G7 was associated with absent enzymatic activity of soluble lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2; at CYP2F1, with higher plasma interleukin-8 concentrations; at TREH, with lower concentrations of apoB-containing lipoprotein subfractions; at either A3GALT2 or NRG4, with markedly reduced plasma insulin C-peptide concentrations; and at SLC9A3R1, with mediators of calcium and phosphate signalling. Heterozygous deficiency of APOC3 has been shown to protect against coronary heart disease; we identified APOC3 homozygous pLoF carriers in our cohort. We recruited these human knockouts and challenged them with an oral fat load. Compared with family members lacking the mutation, individuals with APOC3 knocked out displayed marked blunting of the usual post-prandial rise in plasma triglycerides. Overall, these observations provide a roadmap for a 'human knockout project', a systematic effort to understand the phenotypic consequences of complete disruption of genes in humans.D.S. is supported by grants from the National Institutes of Health, the Fogarty International, the Wellcome Trust, the British Heart Foundation, and Pfizer. P.N. is supported by the John S. LaDue Memorial Fellowship in Cardiology from Harvard Medical School. H.-H.W. is supported by a grant from the Samsung Medical Center, Korea (SMO116163). S.K. is supported by the Ofer and Shelly Nemirovsky MGH Research Scholar Award and by grants from the National Institutes of Health (R01HL107816), the Donovan Family Foundation, and Fondation Leducq. Exome sequencing was supported by a grant from the NHGRI (5U54HG003067-11) to S.G. and E.S.L. D.G.M. is supported by a grant from the National Institutes of Health (R01GM104371). J.D. holds a British Heart Foundation Chair, European Research Council Senior Investigator Award, and NIHR Senior Investigator Award. The Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit at the University of Cambridge, which supported the field work and genotyping of PROMIS, is funded by the UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, and NIHR Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre ... Fieldwork in the PROMIS study has been supported through funds available to investigators at the Center for Non-Communicable Diseases, Pakistan and the University of Cambridge, UK

Associations between brain structure and sleep patterns across adolescent development

Study objectivesStructural brain maturation and sleep are complex processes that exhibit significant changes over adolescence and are linked to many physical and mental health outcomes. We investigated whether sleep-gray matter relationships are developmentally invariant (i.e. stable across age) or developmentally specific (i.e. only present during discrete time windows) from late childhood through young adulthood.MethodsWe constructed the Neuroimaging and Pediatric Sleep Databank from eight research studies conducted at the University of Pittsburgh (2009-2020). Participants completed a T1-weighted structural MRI scan (sMRI) and 5-7 days of wrist actigraphy to assess naturalistic sleep. The final analytic sample consisted of 225 participants without current psychiatric diagnoses (9-25 years). We extracted cortical thickness and subcortical volumes from sMRI. Sleep patterns (duration, timing, continuity, regularity) were estimated from wrist actigraphy. Using regularized regression, we examined cross-sectional associations between sMRI measures and sleep patterns, as well as the effects of age, sex, and their interaction with sMRI measures on sleep.ResultsShorter sleep duration, later sleep timing, and poorer sleep continuity were associated with thinner cortex and altered subcortical volumes in diverse brain regions across adolescence. In a discrete subset of regions (e.g. posterior cingulate), thinner cortex was associated with these sleep patterns from late childhood through early-to-mid adolescence but not in late adolescence and young adulthood.ConclusionsIn childhood and adolescence, developmentally invariant and developmentally specific associations exist between sleep patterns and gray matter structure, across brain regions linked to sensory, cognitive, and emotional processes. Sleep intervention during specific developmental periods could potentially promote healthier neurodevelopmental outcomes

Applying social network analysis in economic geography: framing some key analytic issues

D85, O31, R11,