Permafrost degradation risk zone assessment using simulation models

In this proof-of-concept study we focus on linking large scale climate and permafrost simulations to small scale engineering projects by bridging the gap between climate and permafrost sciences on the one hand and on the other technical recommendation for adaptation of planned infrastructures to climate change in a region generally underlain by permafrost. We present the current and future state of permafrost in Greenland as modelled numerically with the GIPL model driven by HIRHAM climate projections up to 2080. We develop a concept called Permafrost Thaw Potential (PTP), defined as the potential active layer increase due to climate warming and surface alterations. PTP is then used in a simple risk assessment procedure useful for engineering applications. The modelling shows that climate warming will result in continuing wide-spread permafrost warming and degradation in Greenland, in agreement with present observations. We provide examples of application of the risk zone assessment approach for the two towns of Sisimiut and Ilulissat, both classified with high PTP

Rapid movement of frozen debris-lobes: implications for permafrost degradation and slope instability in the south-central Brooks Range, Alaska

We present the results of a reconnaissance investigation of unusual debris mass-movement features on permafrost slopes that pose a potential infrastructure hazard in the south-central Brooks Range, Alaska. For the purpose of this paper, we describe these features as frozen debris-lobes. We focus on the characterisation of frozen debris-lobes as indicators of various movement processes using ground-based surveys, remote sensing, field and laboratory measurements, and time-lapse observations of frozen debris-lobe systems along the Dalton Highway. Currently, some frozen debris-lobes exceed 100 m in width, 20 m in height and 1000 m in length. Our results indicate that frozen debris-lobes have responded to climate change by becoming increasingly active during the last decades, resulting in rapid downslope movement. Movement indicators observed in the field include toppling trees, slumps and scarps, detachment slides, striation marks on frozen sediment slabs, recently buried trees and other vegetation, mudflows, and large cracks in the lobe surface. The type and diversity of observed indicators suggest that the lobes likely consist of a frozen debris core, are subject to creep, and seasonally unfrozen surface sediment is transported in warm seasons by creep, slumping, viscous flow, blockfall and leaching of fines, and in cold seasons by creep and sliding of frozen sediment slabs. Ground-based measurements on one frozen debris-lobe over three years (2008–2010) revealed average movement rates of approximately 1 cm day<sup>−1</sup>, which is substantially larger than rates measured in historic aerial photography from the 1950s to 1980s. We discuss how climate change may further influence frozen debris-lobe dynamics, potentially accelerating their movement. We highlight the potential direct hazard that one of the studied frozen debris-lobes may pose in the coming years and decades to the nearby Trans Alaska Pipeline System and the Dalton Highway, the main artery for transportation between Interior Alaska and the North Slope

Multi-site and multi-depth near-infrared spectroscopy in a model of simulated (central) hypovolemia: lower body negative pressure

Purpose: To test the hypothesis that the sensitivity of near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) in reflecting the degree of (compensated) hypovolemia would be affected by the application site and probing depth. We simultaneously applied multi-site (thenar and forearm) and multi-depth (15-2.5 and 25-2.5 mm probe distance) NIRS in a model of simulated hypovolemia: lower body negative pressure (LBNP). Methods: The study group comprised 24 healthy male volunteers who were subjected to an LBNP protocol in which a baseline period of 30 min was followed by a step-wise manipulation of negative pressure in the following steps: 0, -20, -40, -60, -80 and -100 mmHg. Stroke volume and heart rate were measured using volume-clamp finger plethysmography. Two multi-depth NIRS devices were used to measure tissue oxygen saturation (StO2) and tissue hemoglobin index (THI) continuously in the thenar and the forearm. To monitor the shift of blood volume towards the lower extremities, calf THI was measured by single-depth NIRS. Results: The main findings were that the application of LBNP resulted in a significant reduction in stroke volume which was accompanied by a reduction in forearm StO2 and THI. Conclusions: NIRS can be used to detect changes in StO2 and THI consequent upon central hypovolemia. Forearm NIRS measurements reflect hypovolemia more sensitively than thenar NIRS measurements. The sensitivity of these NIRS measurements does not depend on NIRS probing depth. The LBNP-induced shift in blood volume is reflected by a decreased THI in the forearm and an increased THI in the calf

The Scales Project, a cross-national dataset on the interpretation of thermal perception scales

Thermal discomfort is one of the main triggers for occupants’ interactions with components of the built environment such as adjustments of thermostats and/or opening windows and strongly related to the energy use in buildings. Understanding causes for thermal (dis-)comfort is crucial for design and operation of any type of building. The assessment of human thermal perception through rating scales, for example in post-occupancy studies, has been applied for several decades; however, long-existing assumptions related to these rating scales had been questioned by several researchers. The aim of this study was to gain deeper knowledge on contextual influences on the interpretation of thermal perception scales and their verbal anchors by survey participants. A questionnaire was designed and consequently applied in 21 language versions. These surveys were conducted in 57 cities in 30 countries resulting in a dataset containing responses from 8225 participants. The database offers potential for further analysis in the areas of building design and operation, psycho-physical relationships between human perception and the built environment, and linguistic analyses

Therapeutic Validity and Effectiveness of Preoperative Exercise on Functional Recovery after Joint Replacement: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background: Our aim was to develop a rating scale to assess the therapeutic validity of therapeutic exercise programmes. By use of this rating scale we investigated the therapeutic validity of therapeutic exercise in patients awaiting primary total joint replacement (TJR). Finally, we studied the association between therapeutic validity of preoperative therapeutic exercise and its effectiveness in terms of postoperative functional recovery. Methods: (Quasi) randomised clinical trials on preoperative therapeutic exercise in adults awaiting TJR on postoperative recovery of functioning within three months after surgery were identified through database and reference screening. Two reviewers extracted data and assessed the risk of bias and therapeutic validity. Therapeutic validity of the interventions was assessed with a nine-itemed, expert-based rating scale (scores range from 0 to 9; score ≥6 reflecting therapeutic validity), developed in a four-round Delphi study. Effects were pooled using a random-effects model and meta-regression was used to study the influence of therapeutic validity. Results: Of the 7,492 articles retrieved, 12 studies (737 patients) were included. None of the included studies demonstrated therapeutic validity and two demonstrated low risk of bias. Therapeutic exercise was not associated with 1) observed functional recovery during the hospital stay (Standardised Mean Difference [SMD]: −1.19; 95%-confidence interval [CI], −2.46 to 0.08); 2) observed recovery within three months of surgery (SMD: −0.15; 95%-CI, −0.42 to 0.12); and 3) self-reported recovery within three months of surgery (SMD −0.07; 95%-CI, −0.35 to 0.21) compared with control participants. Meta-regression showed no statistically significant relationship between therapeutic validity and pooled-effects. Conclusion: Preoperative therapeutic exercise for TJR did not demonstrate beneficial effects on postoperative functional recovery. However, poor therapeutic validity of the therapeutic exercise programmes may have hampered potentially beneficial effects, since none of the studies met the predetermined quality criteria. Future review studies on therapeutic exercise should address therapeutic validity. (aut.ref.

Evaluating assumptions of scales for subjective assessment of thermal environments – Do laypersons perceive them the way, we researchers believe?

People's subjective response to any thermal environment is commonly investigated by using rating scales describing the degree of thermal sensation, comfort, and acceptability. Subsequent analyses of results collected in this way rely on the assumption that specific distances between verbal anchors placed on the scale exist and that relationships between verbal anchors from different dimensions that are assessed (e.g. thermal sensation and comfort) do not change. Another inherent assumption is that such scales are independent of the context in which they are used (climate zone, season, etc.). Despite their use worldwide, there is indication that contextual differences influence the way the scales are perceived and therefore question the reliability of the scales’ interpretation. To address this issue, a large international collaborative questionnaire study was conducted in 26 countries, using 21 different languages, which led to a dataset of 8225 questionnaires. Results, analysed by means of robust statistical techniques, revealed that only a subset of the responses are in accordance with the mentioned assumptions. Significant differences appeared between groups of participants in their perception of the scales, both in relation to distances of the anchors and relationships between scales. It was also found that respondents’ interpretations of scales changed with contextual factors, such as climate, season, and language. These findings highlight the need to carefully consider context-dependent factors in interpreting and reporting results from thermal comfort studies or post-occupancy evaluations, as well as to revisit the use of rating scales and the analysis methods used in thermal comfort studies to improve their reliability

The Scales Project, a cross-national dataset on the interpretation of thermal perception scales

Thermal discomfort is one of the main triggers for occupants' interactions with components of the built environment such as adjustments of thermostats and/or opening windows and strongly related to the energy use in buildings. Understanding causes for thermal (dis-)comfort is crucial for design and operation of any type of building. The assessment of human thermal perception through rating scales, for example in post-occupancy studies, has been applied for several decades; however, long-existing assumptions related to these rating scales had been questioned by several researchers. The aim of this study was to gain deeper knowledge on contextual influences on the interpretation of thermal perception scales and their verbal anchors by survey participants. A questionnaire was designed and consequently applied in 21 language versions. These surveys were conducted in 57 cities in 30 countries resulting in a dataset containing responses from 8225 participants. The database offers potential for further analysis in the areas of building design and operation, psycho-physical relationships between human perception and the built environment, and linguistic analyses

Cross Adaptation - Heat and Cold Adaptation to Improve Physiological and Cellular Responses to Hypoxia

To prepare for extremes of heat, cold or low partial pressures of O2, humans can undertake a period of acclimation or acclimatization to induce environment specific adaptations e.g. heat acclimation (HA), cold acclimation (CA), or altitude training. Whilst these strategies are effective, they are not always feasible, due to logistical impracticalities. Cross adaptation is a term used to describe the phenomenon whereby alternative environmental interventions e.g. HA, or CA, may be a beneficial alternative to altitude interventions, providing physiological stress and inducing adaptations observable at altitude. HA can attenuate physiological strain at rest and during moderate intensity exercise at altitude via adaptations allied to improved oxygen delivery to metabolically active tissue, likely following increases in plasma volume and reductions in body temperature. CA appears to improve physiological responses to altitude by attenuating the autonomic response to altitude. While no cross acclimation-derived exercise performance/capacity data have been measured following CA, post-HA improvements in performance underpinned by aerobic metabolism, and therefore dependent on oxygen delivery at altitude, are likely. At a cellular level, heat shock protein responses to altitude are attenuated by prior HA suggesting that an attenuation of the cellular stress response and therefore a reduced disruption to homeostasis at altitude has occurred. This process is known as cross tolerance. The effects of CA on markers of cross tolerance is an area requiring further investigation. Because much of the evidence relating to cross adaptation to altitude has examined the benefits at moderate to high altitudes, future research examining responses at lower altitudes should be conducted given that these environments are more frequently visited by athletes and workers. Mechanistic work to identify the specific physiological and cellular pathways responsible for cross adaptation between heat and altitude, and between cold and altitude, is warranted, as is exploration of benefits across different populations and physical activity profiles