The role of research in viral disease eradication and elimination programs: Lessons for malaria eradication

By examining the role research has played in eradication or regional elimination initiatives for three viral diseases-smallpox, poliomyelitis, and measles-we derive nine cross-cutting lessons applicable to malaria eradication. In these initiatives, some types of research commenced as the programs began and proceeded in parallel. Basic laboratory, clinical, and field research all contributed notably to progress made in the viral programs. For each program, vaccine was the lynchpin intervention, but as the programs progressed, research was required to improve vaccine formulations, delivery methods, and immunization schedules. Surveillance was fundamental to all three programs, whilst polio eradication also required improved diagnostic methods to identify asymptomatic infections. Molecular characterization of pathogen isolates strengthened surveillance and allowed insights into the geographic source of infections and their spread. Anthropologic, sociologic, and behavioural research were needed to address cultural and religious beliefs to expand community acceptance. The last phases of elimination and eradication became increasingly difficult, as a nil incidence was approached. Any eradication initiative for malaria must incorporate flexible research agendas that can adapt to changing epidemiologic contingencies and allow planning for posteradication scenarios. © 2011 Breman et al

Determinants of City Growth in Brazil

In this paper, we examine the determinants of Brazilian city growth between 1970 and 2000. We consider a model of a city, which combines aspects of standard urban economics and the new economic geography literatures. For the empirical analysis, we constructed a dataset of 123 Brazilian agglomerations, and estimate aspects of the demand and supply side as well as a reduced form specification that describes city sizes and their growth. Our main findings are that increases in rural population supply, improvements in inter-regional transport connectivity and education attainment of the labor force have strong impacts on city growth. We also find that local crime and violence, measured by homicide rates impinge on growth. In contrast, a higher share of private sector industrial capital in the local economy stimulates growth. Using the residuals from the growth estimation, we also find that cities who better administer local land use and zoning laws have higher growth. Finally, our policy simulations show that diverting transport investments from large cities towards secondary cities do not provide significant gains in terms of national urban performance.

Determinants of city growth in Brazil

The authors examine the determinants of Brazilian city growth between 1970 and 2000. They consider a model of a city that combines aspects of standard urban economics and the new economic geography literatures. For the empirical analysis, the authors construct a dataset of 123 Brazilian agglomerations and estimate aspects of the demand and supply side, as well as a reduced form specification that describes city sizes and their growth. Their main findings are that increases in rural population supply, improvements in interregional transport connectivity, and education attainment of the labor force have strong impacts on city growth. They also find that local crime and violence, measured by homicide rates, impinge on growth. In contrast, a higher share of private sector industrial capital in the local economy stimulates growth. Using the residuals from the growth estimation, the authors also find that cities that better administer local land use and zoning laws have higher growth. Finally, their policy simulations show that diverting transport investments from large cities toward secondary cities does not provide significant gains in terms of national urban performance.Economic Theory&Research,City Development Strategies,Municipal Financial Management,Achieving Shared Growth,Economic Growth

Examining the growth patterns of Brazilian cities

The share of urban population in Brazil increased from 58 to 80 percent between 1970 and 2000 and all net population growth over the next 30 years is predicted to be in cities. This paper explores population growth and its implications for economic dynamics and income generation among 123 urban agglomerations. Incomes are higher in larger agglomerations and in the South, but there is some indication of regional convergence with higher rates of income growth in poorer areas. In particular, agglomerations in the North and Central-West are growing faster than the more established urban centers in the South. Economic dynamics point to a process of increased diversification among larger cities, and greater specialization among medium-sized agglomerations. In bigger centers there is a trend toward deconcentration toward the periphery. The paper provides a simple analysis of correlates of labor supply, as measured by population growth and economic productivity, which is proxied by changes in per capita income.

Mudança no número de dias com chuva no município de Visconde de Mauá, Rio de Janeiro

Climate change has the potential to change the distribution of rainfall. However, for Sul Fluminense this analysis was not performed. Thus, the objective of this research was to identify changes in the number of rainy days in the South Fluminense region. Daily rainfall data from 1938-2011 were used for the study from a weather station located in the municipality of Visconde de Mauá-RJ. The rain data were divided into five classes of days with rain equal to: P = 0; 0 < P ≤ 5; 5 > P ≤ 10; 10 > P ≤ 15; 15 > P ≤ 20. The analysis was performed using the rain data for the months of January (summer) and July (winter). The rain classes were submitted to Student's t test for the linear regression slope to identify possible changes in rainfall classes. For this test, a significance level of 5% was adopted. The analysis showed that the classes 5 > P ≤ 10; 10 > P ≤ 15; 15 > P ≤ 20 for the month of January, showed a reduction, but there was no statistical significance for the test applied. For January only classes 0 < P ≤ 5 showed an increase which statistically significant. In July there was an increase in classes 5 > P ≤ 10 and 10 > P ≤ 15 and reduction in 0 <P ≤ 5 and 15> P ≤ 20. However, without statistical significance for July. Results show greater reduction the rainfall in January.As mudanças climáticas têm o potencial de modificando a distribuição das chuvas. No entanto, para o Sul Fluminense essa análise não foi realizada. Assim, o objetivo desta pesquisa foi identificar mudança no número de dias com chuva na região Sul Fluminense. Para o estudo foram utilizados dados diários de chuva entre 1938-2011, proveniente de uma estação meteorológica localizada no municio de Visconde de Mauá-RJ. Os dados foram subdivididos em cinco classes de dias com chuva igual a: P = 0; 0 < P ≤ 5; 5 > P ≤ 10; 10 > P ≤ 15; 15 > P ≤ 20. A análise foi realizada para os meses de janeiro (verão) e julho (inverno). As classes foram submetidas ao teste t de Student para o coeficiente angular da regressão linear, para identificar possível alteração nas classes de chuva. Para esse teste, foi adotado nível de significância de 5%. A análise mostrou que as classes 5 > P ≤ 10; 10 > P ≤ 15; 15 > P ≤ 20, para o mês janeiro, apresentou redução, mas sem significância estatística. Para janeiro, apenas a classe 0 < P ≤ 5 apresentou aumento, sendo esse com significância estatística. No mês de julho foi observado aumento nas classes 5 > P ≤ 10 e 10 > P ≤ 15, e redução para 0 < P ≤ 5 e 15 > P ≤ 20. No entanto, sem significância estatística para julho. Os resultados indicam redução maior das chuvas para o mês de janeiro

Reassessing the foundations : Worldwide smallpox eradication, 1957-67

An expansive, worldwide smallpox eradication programme (SEP) was announced by the World Health Assembly in 1958, leading this decision-making body to instruct the World Health Organization Headquarters in Geneva to work with WHO Regional Offices to engage and draw in national governments to ensure success. Tabled by the Soviet Union’s representative and passed by a majority vote by member states, the announcement was subject to intense diplomatic negotiations. This led to the formation, expansion and reshaping of an ambitious and complex campaign that cut across continents and countries. This article examines these inter-twining international, regional and national processes, and challenges long-standing historiographical assumptions about the fight against smallpox only gathering strength from the mid-1960s onwards, after the start of a US-supported programme in Western Africa. The evidence presented here suggests a far more complex picture. It shows that although the SEP’s structures grew slowly between 1958 and 1967, a worldwide eradication programme resulted from international negotiations made possible through gains during this period. Significant progress in limiting the incidence of smallpox sustained international collaboration, and justified the prolongation and expansion of activities. Indeed, all of this bore diplomatic and legal processes within the World Health Assembly and WHO that acted as the foundation of the so-called intensified phase of the SEP and the multi-faceted activities that led to the certification of smallpox eradication in 1980