A dynamical trichotomy for structured populations experiencing positive density-dependence in stochastic environments

Positive density-dependence occurs when individuals experience increased survivorship, growth, or reproduction with increased population densities. Mechanisms leading to these positive relationships include mate limitation, saturating predation risk, and cooperative breeding and foraging. Individuals within these populations may differ in age, size, or geographic location and thereby structure these populations. Here, I study structured population models accounting for positive density-dependence and environmental stochasticity i.e. random fluctuations in the demographic rates of the population. Under an accessibility assumption (roughly, stochastic fluctuations can lead to populations getting small and large), these models are shown to exhibit a dynamical trichotomy: (i) for all initial conditions, the population goes asymptotically extinct with probability one, (ii) for all positive initial conditions, the population persists and asymptotically exhibits unbounded growth, and (iii) for all positive initial conditions, there is a positive probability of asymptotic extinction and a complementary positive probability of unbounded growth. The main results are illustrated with applications to spatially structured populations with an Allee effect and age-structured populations experiencing mate limitation

Negotiation in strategy making teams : group support systems and the process of cognitive change

This paper reports on the use of a Group Support System (GSS) to explore at a micro level some of the processes manifested when a group is negotiating strategy-processes of social and psychological negotiation. It is based on data from a series of interventions with senior management teams of three operating companies comprising a multi-national organization, and with a joint meeting subsequently involving all of the previous participants. The meetings were concerned with negotiating a new strategy for the global organization. The research involved the analysis of detailed time series data logs that exist as a result of using a GSS that is a reflection of cognitive theory

Maternal psychological distress in primary care and association with child behavioural outcomes at age three

Observational studies indicate children whose mothers have poor mental health are at increased risk of socio-emotional behavioural difficulties, but it is unknown whether these outcomes vary by the mothers’ mental health recognition and treatment status. To examine this question, we analysed linked longitudinal primary care and research data from 1078 women enrolled in the Born in Bradford cohort. A latent class analysis of treatment status and self-reported distress broadly categorised women as (a) not having a common mental disorder (CMD) that persisted through pregnancy and the first 2 years after delivery (N = 756, 70.1 %), (b) treated for CMD (N = 67, 6.2 %), or (c) untreated (N = 255, 23.7 %). Compared to children of mothers without CMD, 3-year-old children with mothers classified as having untreated CMD had higher standardised factor scores on the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (d = 0.32), as did children with mothers classified as having treated CMD (d = 0.27). Results were only slightly attenuated in adjusted analyses. Children of mothers with CMD may be at risk for socio-emotional and behavioural difficulties. The development of effective treatments for CMD needs to be balanced by greater attempts to identify and treat women. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00787-015-0777-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Stochastic population growth in spatially heterogeneous environments

Classical ecological theory predicts that environmental stochasticity increases extinction risk by reducing the average per-capita growth rate of populations. To understand the interactive effects of environmental stochasticity, spatial heterogeneity, and dispersal on population growth, we study the following model for population abundances in $n$ patches: the conditional law of $X_{t+dt}$ given $X_t=x$ is such that when $dt$ is small the conditional mean of $X_{t+dt}^i-X_t^i$ is approximately $[x^i\mu_i+\sum_j(x^j D_{ji}-x^i D_{ij})]dt$, where $X_t^i$ and $\mu_i$ are the abundance and per capita growth rate in the $i$-th patch respectivly, and $D_{ij}$ is the dispersal rate from the $i$-th to the $j$-th patch, and the conditional covariance of $X_{t+dt}^i-X_t^i$ and $X_{t+dt}^j-X_t^j$ is approximately $x^i x^j \sigma_{ij}dt$. We show for such a spatially extended population that if $S_t=(X_t^1+...+X_t^n)$ is the total population abundance, then $Y_t=X_t/S_t$, the vector of patch proportions, converges in law to a random vector $Y_\infty$ as $t\to\infty$, and the stochastic growth rate $\lim_{t\to\infty}t^{-1}\log S_t$ equals the space-time average per-capita growth rate \sum_i\mu_i\E[Y_\infty^i] experienced by the population minus half of the space-time average temporal variation \E[\sum_{i,j}\sigma_{ij}Y_\infty^i Y_\infty^j] experienced by the population. We derive analytic results for the law of $Y_\infty$, find which choice of the dispersal mechanism $D$ produces an optimal stochastic growth rate for a freely dispersing population, and investigate the effect on the stochastic growth rate of constraints on dispersal rates. Our results provide fundamental insights into "ideal free" movement in the face of uncertainty, the persistence of coupled sink populations, the evolution of dispersal rates, and the single large or several small (SLOSS) debate in conservation biology.Comment: 47 pages, 4 figure

Integration across time determines path deviation discrimination for moving objects.

YesBackground: Human vision is vital in determining our interaction with the outside world. In this study we characterize our ability to judge changes in the direction of motion of objects-a common task which can allow us either to intercept moving objects, or else avoid them if they pose a threat. Methodology/Principal Findings: Observers were presented with objects which moved across a computer monitor on a linear path until the midline, at which point they changed their direction of motion, and observers were required to judge the direction of change. In keeping with the variety of objects we encounter in the real world, we varied characteristics of the moving stimuli such as velocity, extent of motion path and the object size. Furthermore, we compared performance for moving objects with the ability of observers to detect a deviation in a line which formed the static trace of the motion path, since it has been suggested that a form of static memory trace may form the basis for these types of judgment. The static line judgments were well described by a 'scale invariant' model in which any two stimuli which possess the same two-dimensional geometry (length/width) result in the same level of performance. Performance for the moving objects was entirely different. Irrespective of the path length, object size or velocity of motion, path deviation thresholds depended simply upon the duration of the motion path in seconds. Conclusions/Significance: Human vision has long been known to integrate information across space in order to solve spatial tasks such as judgment of orientation or position. Here we demonstrate an intriguing mechanism which integrates direction information across time in order to optimize the judgment of path deviation for moving objects.Wellcome Trust, Leverhulme Trust, NI

Wall roughness induces asymptotic ultimate turbulence

Turbulence is omnipresent in Nature and technology, governing the transport of heat, mass, and momentum on multiple scales. For real-world applications of wall-bounded turbulence, the underlying surfaces are virtually always rough; yet characterizing and understanding the effects of wall roughness for turbulence remains a challenge, especially for rotating and thermally driven turbulence. By combining extensive experiments and numerical simulations, here, taking as example the paradigmatic Taylor-Couette system (the closed flow between two independently rotating coaxial cylinders), we show how wall roughness greatly enhances the overall transport properties and the corresponding scaling exponents. If only one of the walls is rough, we reveal that the bulk velocity is slaved to the rough side, due to the much stronger coupling to that wall by the detaching flow structures. If both walls are rough, the viscosity dependence is thoroughly eliminated in the boundary layers and we thus achieve asymptotic ultimate turbulence, i.e. the upper limit of transport, whose existence had been predicted by Robert Kraichnan in 1962 (Phys. Fluids {\bf 5}, 1374 (1962)) and in which the scalings laws can be extrapolated to arbitrarily large Reynolds numbers

A quantitative approach to study indirect effects among disease proteins in the human protein interaction network

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Systems biology makes it possible to study larger and more intricate systems than before, so it is now possible to look at the molecular basis of several diseases in parallel. Analyzing the interaction network of proteins in the cell can be the key to understand how complex processes lead to diseases. Novel tools in network analysis provide the possibility to quantify the key interacting proteins in large networks as well as proteins that connect them. Here we suggest a new method to study the relationships between topology and functionality of the protein-protein interaction network, by identifying key mediator proteins possibly maintaining indirect relationships among proteins causing various diseases.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Based on the i2d and OMIM databases, we have constructed (i) a network of proteins causing five selected diseases (DP, disease proteins) plus their interacting partners (IP, non-disease proteins), the DPIP network and (ii) a protein network showing only these IPs and their interactions, the IP network. The five investigated diseases were (1) various cancers, (2) heart diseases, (3) obesity, (4) diabetes and (5) autism. We have quantified the number and strength of IP-mediated indirect effects between the five groups of disease proteins and hypothetically identified the most important mediator proteins linking heart disease to obesity or diabetes in the IP network. The results present the relationship between mediator role and centrality, as well as between mediator role and functional properties of these proteins.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We show that a protein which plays an important indirect mediator role between two diseases is not necessarily a hub in the PPI network. This may suggest that, even if hub proteins and disease proteins are trivially of great interest, mediators may also deserve more attention, especially if disease-disease associations are to be understood. Identifying the hubs may not be sufficient to understand particular pathways. We have found that the mediators between heart diseases and obesity, as well as heart diseases and diabetes are of relatively high functional importance in the cell. The mediator proteins suggested here should be experimentally tested as products of hypothetical disease-related proteins.</p

A systematic review of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of peer education and peer support in prisons.

BACKGROUND: Prisoners experience significantly worse health than the general population. This review examines the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of peer interventions in prison settings. METHODS: A mixed methods systematic review of effectiveness and cost-effectiveness studies, including qualitative and quantitative synthesis was conducted. In addition to grey literature identified and searches of websites, nineteen electronic databases were searched from 1985 to 2012. Study selection criteria were: Population: Prisoners resident in adult prisons and children resident in Young Offender Institutions (YOIs). INTERVENTION: Peer-based interventions Comparators: Review questions 3 and 4 compared peer and professionally led approaches. OUTCOMES: Prisoner health or determinants of health; organisational/ process outcomes; views of prison populations. STUDY DESIGNS: Quantitative, qualitative and mixed method evaluations. RESULTS: Fifty-seven studies were included in the effectiveness review and one study in the cost-effectiveness review; most were of poor methodological quality. Evidence suggested that peer education interventions are effective at reducing risky behaviours, and that peer support services are acceptable within the prison environment and have a positive effect on recipients, practically or emotionally. Consistent evidence from many, predominantly qualitative, studies, suggested that being a peer deliverer was associated with positive effects. There was little evidence on cost-effectiveness of peer-based interventions. CONCLUSIONS: There is consistent evidence from a large number of studies that being a peer worker is associated with positive health; peer support services are also an acceptable source of help within the prison environment and can have a positive effect on recipients. Research into cost-effectiveness is sparse. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO ref: CRD42012002349

The implication of identifying JAK2V617F in myeloproliferative neoplasms and myelodysplastic syndromes with bone marrow fibrosis

The myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPN) and myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) occasionally demonstrate overlapping morphological features including hypercellularity, mild/nonspecific dysplastic changes and variable bone marrow fibrosis. Thus, when the associated bone marrow fibrosis results in a suboptimal specimen for morphological evaluation, the descriptive diagnosis “fibrotic marrow with features indeterminate for MDS versus MPN” is often applied. The JAK2V617F mutation was recently shown to be frequently identified in MPN, but it is rarely present in other myeloid disorders. However, the diagnostic utility of JAK2V617F screening in hypercellular bone marrow specimens with fibrosis has not been previously investigated. Using a real-time polymerase chain reaction melting-curve assay capable of detecting JAK2V617F in archived fixed materials, we retrospectively studied JAK2V617F in 45 cases with fibrotic hypercellular bone marrow at initial presentation, including 19 cases initially described as “with features indeterminate for MDS versus MPN”. These 19 cases were reclassified into more specific categories of MDS (n = 14) or MPN (n = 5) based on the availability of subsequent clinical data and/or bone marrow examinations. The JAK2V617F allele was identified in 17 out of 18 BCR/ABL gene-negative MPN cases with marrow fibrosis, whereas only wild-type alleles were identified in the remaining non-MPN cases. Importantly, JAK2V617F alleles were seen in all five cases of “with features indeterminate for MDS versus MPN” at initial presentation that were later determined to be MPN, but they were absent in the 14 cases later determined to be MDS. Our results suggest that JAK2V617F allele evaluation can be a useful ancillary test for discriminating MDS from MPN in specimens with bone marrow fibrosis