Responsibility modelling for civil emergency planning

This paper presents a new approach to analysing and understanding civil emergency planning based on the notion of responsibility modelling combined with HAZOPS-style analysis of information requirements. Our goal is to represent complex contingency plans so that they can be more readily understood, so that inconsistencies can be highlighted and vulnerabilities discovered. In this paper, we outline the framework for contingency planning in the United Kingdom and introduce the notion of responsibility models as a means of representing the key features of contingency plans. Using a case study of a flooding emergency, we illustrate our approach to responsibility modelling and suggest how it adds value to current textual contingency plans

Bone Marrow Stem Cell Treatment for Ischemic Heart Disease in Patients with No Option of Revascularization: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PMCID: PMC3686792This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited

Superpartner spectrum of minimal gaugino-gauge mediation

We evaluate the sparticle mass spectrum in the minimal four-dimensional construction that interpolates between gaugino and ordinary gauge mediation at the weak scale. We find that even in the hybrid case -- when the messenger scale is comparable to the mass of the additional gauge particles -- both the right-handed as well as the left-handed sleptons are lighter than the bino in the low-scale mediation regime. This implies a chain of lepton production and, consequently, striking signatures that may be probed at the LHC already in the near future.Comment: 8 pages, 3 figures; V2: refs and a few comments added; V3 title change

Admission to hospital following head injury in England: Incidence and socio-economic associations

BACKGROUND: Head injury in England is common. Evidence suggests that socio-economic factors may cause variation in incidence, and this variation may affect planning for services to meet the needs of those who have sustained a head injury. METHODS: Socio-economic data were obtained from the UK Office for National Statistics and merged with Hospital Episodes Statistics obtained from the Department of Health. All patients admitted for head injury with ICD-10 codes S00.0–S09.9 during 2001–2 and 2002–3 were included and collated at the level of the extant Health Authorities (HA) for 2002, and Primary Care Trust (PCT) for 2003. Incidence was determined, and cluster analysis and multiple regression analysis were used to look at patterns and associations. Results: 112,718 patients were admitted during 2001–2 giving a hospitalised incidence rate for England of 229 per 100,000. This rate varied across the English HA's ranging from 91–419 per 100,000. The rate remained unchanged for 2002–3 with a similar magnitude of variation across PCT's. Three clusters of HA's were identified from the 2001–2 data; those typical of London, those of the Shire counties, and those of Other Urban authorities. Socio-economic factors were found to account for a high proportion of the variance in incidence for 2001–2. The same pattern emerged for 2002–3 at the PCT level. The use of public transport for travel to work is associated with a decreased incidence and lifestyle indicators, such as the numbers of young unemployed, increase the incidence. CONCLUSION: Head injury incidence in England varies by a factor of 4.6 across HA's and PCT's. Planning head injury related services at the local level thus needs to be based on local incidence figures rather than regional or national estimates. Socio-economic factors are shown to be associated with admission, including travel to work patterns and lifestyle indicators, which suggests that incidence is amenable to policy initiatives at the macro level as well as preventive programmes targeted at key groups

A new small-bodied azhdarchoid pterosaur from the Lower Cretaceous of England and its implications for pterosaur anatomy, diversity and phylogeny

BACKGROUND: Pterosaurs have been known from the Cretaceous sediments of the Isle of Wight (southern England, United Kingdom) since 1870. We describe the three-dimensional pelvic girdle and associated vertebrae of a small near-adult pterodactyloid from the Atherfield Clay Formation (lower Aptian, Lower Cretaceous). Despite acknowledged variation in the pterosaur pelvis, previous studies have not adequately sampled or incorporated pelvic characters into phylogenetic analyses. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The new specimen represents the new taxon Vectidraco daisymorrisae gen. et sp. nov., diagnosed by the presence of a concavity posterodorsal to the acetabulum and the form of its postacetabular process on the ilium. Several characters suggest that Vectidraco belongs to Azhdarchoidea. We constructed a pelvis-only phylogenetic analysis to test whether the pterosaur pelvis carries a useful phylogenetic signal. Resolution in recovered trees was poor, but they approximately matched trees recovered from analyses of total evidence. We also added Vectidraco and our pelvic characters to an existing total-evidence matrix for pterosaurs. Both analyses recovered Vectidraco within Azhdarchoidea. CONCLUSIONS/ SIGNIFICANCE: The Lower Cretaceous strata of western Europe have yielded members of several pterosaur lineages, but Aptian pterosaurs from western Europe are rare. With a pelvis length of 40 mm, the new animal would have had a total length of c. 350 mm, and a wingspan of c. 750 mm. Barremian and Aptian pterodactyloids from western Europe show that small-bodied azhdarchoids lived alongside ornithocheirids and istiodactylids. This assemblage is similar in terms of which lineages are represented to the coeval beds of Liaoning, China; however, the number of species and specimens present at Liaoning is much higher. While the general phylogenetic composition of western European and Chinese communities appear to have been approximately similar, the differences may be due to different palaeoenvironmental and depositional settings. The western Europe pterodactyloid record may therefore be artificially low in diversity due to preservational factors

Decoupling heavy sparticles in Effective SUSY scenarios: Unification, Higgs masses and tachyon bounds

Using two-loop renormalization group equations implementing the decoupling of heavy scalars, Effective SUSY scenarios are studied in the limit in which there is a single low energy Higgs field. Gauge coupling unification is shown to hold with similar or better precision than in standard MSSM scenarios. b-tau unification is examined, and Higgs masses are computed using the effective potential, including two-loop contributions from scalars. A 125 GeV Higgs is compatible with stops/sbottoms at around 300 GeV with non-universal boundary conditions at the scale of the heavy sparticles if some of the trilinear couplings at this scale take values of the order of 1-2 TeV; if more constrained boundary conditions inspired by msugra or gauge mediation are set at a higher scale, heavier colored sparticles are required in general. Finally, since the decoupled RG flow for third-generation scalar masses departs very significantly from the MSSM DR-bar one, tachyon bounds for light scalars are revisited and shown to be relaxed by up to a TeV or more.Comment: 35 pages, 17 figures. v2: Updated some scans, allowing for changes in sign of some parameters, minor improvements. v3: Typos corrected in formulae in the appendices, added some clarifying remarks about flavor mixing being ignore

Iron, silicate, and light co-limitation of three Southern Ocean diatom species

The effect of combined iron, silicate, and light co-limitation was investigated in the three diatom species Actinocyclus sp. Ehrenberg, Chaetoceros dichaeta Ehrenberg, and Chaetoceros debilis Cleve, isolated from the Southern Ocean (SO). Growth of all species was co-limited by iron and silicate, reflected in a significant increase in the number of cell divisions compared to the control. Lowest relative Si uptake and drastic frustule malformation was found under iron and silicate co-limitation in C. dichaeta, while Si limitation in general caused cell elongation in both Chaetoceros species. Higher light intensities similar to SO surface conditions showed a negative impact on growth of C. dichaeta and Actinocyclus sp. and no effect on C. debilis. This is in contrast to the assumed light limitation of SO diatoms due to deep wind driven mixing. Our results suggest that growth and species composition of Southern Ocean diatoms is influenced by a sensitive interaction of the abiotic factors, iron, silicate, and light

Cluster randomised trials in the medical literature: two bibliometric surveys

Background: Several reviews of published cluster randomised trials have reported that about half did not take clustering into account in the analysis, which was thus incorrect and potentially misleading. In this paper I ask whether cluster randomised trials are increasing in both number and quality of reporting. Methods: Computer search for papers on cluster randomised trials since 1980, hand search of trial reports published in selected volumes of the British Medical Journal over 20 years. Results: There has been a large increase in the numbers of methodological papers and of trial reports using the term 'cluster random' in recent years, with about equal numbers of each type of paper. The British Medical Journal contained more such reports than any other journal. In this journal there was a corresponding increase over time in the number of trials where subjects were randomised in clusters. In 2003 all reports showed awareness of the need to allow for clustering in the analysis. In 1993 and before clustering was ignored in most such trials. Conclusion: Cluster trials are becoming more frequent and reporting is of higher quality. Perhaps statistician pressure works

Predictability of evolutionary trajectories in fitness landscapes

Experimental studies on enzyme evolution show that only a small fraction of all possible mutation trajectories are accessible to evolution. However, these experiments deal with individual enzymes and explore a tiny part of the fitness landscape. We report an exhaustive analysis of fitness landscapes constructed with an off-lattice model of protein folding where fitness is equated with robustness to misfolding. This model mimics the essential features of the interactions between amino acids, is consistent with the key paradigms of protein folding and reproduces the universal distribution of evolutionary rates among orthologous proteins. We introduce mean path divergence as a quantitative measure of the degree to which the starting and ending points determine the path of evolution in fitness landscapes. Global measures of landscape roughness are good predictors of path divergence in all studied landscapes: the mean path divergence is greater in smooth landscapes than in rough ones. The model-derived and experimental landscapes are significantly smoother than random landscapes and resemble additive landscapes perturbed with moderate amounts of noise; thus, these landscapes are substantially robust to mutation. The model landscapes show a deficit of suboptimal peaks even compared with noisy additive landscapes with similar overall roughness. We suggest that smoothness and the substantial deficit of peaks in the fitness landscapes of protein evolution are fundamental consequences of the physics of protein folding.Comment: 14 pages, 7 figure