Projecting the 10-year costs of care and mortality burden of depression until 2032: a Markov modelling study developed from real-world data

\ua9 2024 The Authors. Background: Based on real-world data, we developed a 10-year prediction model to estimate the burden among patients with depression from the public healthcare system payer\u27s perspective to inform early resource planning in Hong Kong. Methods: We developed a Markov cohort model with yearly cycles specifically capturing the pathway of treatment-resistant depression (TRD) and comorbidity development along the disease course. Projected from 2023 to 2032, primary outcomes included costs of all-cause and psychiatric care, and secondary outcomes were all-cause deaths, years of life lived, and quality-adjusted life-years. Using the territory-wide electronic medical records, we identified 25,190 patients aged ≥10 years with newly diagnosed depression from 2014 to 2016 with follow-up until 2020 to observe the real-world time-to-event pattern, based on which costs and time-varying transition inputs were derived using negative binomial modelling and parametric survival analysis. We applied the model as both closed cohort, which studied a fixed cohort of incident patients in 2023, and open cohort, which introduced incident patients by year from 2014 to 2032. Utilities and annual new patients were from published sources. Findings: With 9217 new patients in 2023, our closed cohort model projected the 10-year cumulative costs of all-cause and psychiatric care to reach US$309.0 million and US$58.3 million, respectively, with 899 deaths (case fatality rate: 9.8%) by 2032. In our open cohort model, 55,849–57,896 active prevalent cases would cost more than US$322.3 million and US$60.7 million, respectively, with more than 943 deaths annually from 2023 to 2032. Fewer than 20% of cases would live with TRD or comorbidities but contribute 31–54% of the costs. The greatest collective burden would occur in women aged above 40, but men aged above 65 and below 25 with medical history would have the highest costs per patient-year. The key cost drivers were relevant to the early disease stages. Interpretation: A limited proportion of patients would develop TRD and comorbidities but contribute to a high proportion of costs, which necessitates appropriate attention and resource allocation. Our projection also demonstrates the application of real-world data to model long-term costs and mortality, which aid policymakers anticipate foreseeable burden and undertake budget planning to prepare for the care need in alternative scenarios. Funding: Research Impact Fund from the University Grants Committee, Research Grants Council with matching fund from the Hong Kong Association of Pharmaceutical Industry (R7007-22)

Conjugative Plasmids of Neisseria gonorrhoeae

Many clinical isolates of the human pathogen Neisseria gonorrhoeae contain conjugative plasmids. The host range of these plasmids is limited to Neisseria species, but presence of a tetracycline (tetM) determinant inserted in several of these plasmids is an important cause of the rapid spread of tetracycline resistance. Previously plasmids with different backbones (Dutch and American type backbones) and with and without different tetM determinants (Dutch and American type tetM determinants) have been identified. Within the isolates tested, all plasmids with American or Dutch type tetM determinants contained a Dutch type plasmid backbone. This demonstrated that tetM determinants should not be used to differentiate between conjugal plasmid backbones. The nucleotide sequences of conjugative plasmids with Dutch type plasmid backbones either not containing the tetM determinant (pEP5233) or containing Dutch (pEP5289) or American (pEP5050) type tetM determinants were determined. Analysis of the backbone sequences showed that they belong to a novel IncP1 subfamily divergent from the IncP1α, β, γ, δ and ε subfamilies. The tetM determinants were inserted in a genetic load region found in all these plasmids. Insertion was accompanied by the insertion of a gene with an unknown function, and rearrangement of a toxin/antitoxin gene cluster. The genetic load region contains two toxin/antitoxins of the Zeta/Epsilon toxin/antitoxin family previously only found in Gram positive organisms and the virulence associated protein D of the VapD/VapX toxin/antitoxin family. Remarkably, presence of VapX of pJD1, a small cryptic neisserial plasmid, in the acceptor strain strongly increased the conjugation efficiency, suggesting that it functions as an antitoxin for the conjugative plasmid. The presence of the toxin and antitoxin on different plasmids might explain why the host range of this IncP1 plasmid is limited to Neisseria species. The isolated plasmids conjugated efficiently between N. gonorrhoeae strains, but did not enhance transfer of a genetic marker

Application of COMPOCHIP Microarray to Investigate the Bacterial Communities of Different Composts

A microarray spotted with 369 different 16S rRNA gene probes specific to microorganisms involved in the degradation process of organic waste during composting was developed. The microarray was tested with pure cultures, and of the 30,258 individual probe-target hybridization reactions performed, there were only 188 false positive (0.62%) and 22 false negative signals (0.07%). Labeled target DNA was prepared by polymerase chain reaction amplification of 16S rRNA genes using a Cy5-labeled universal bacterial forward primer and a universal reverse primer. The COMPOCHIP microarray was applied to three different compost types (green compost, manure mix compost, and anaerobic digestate compost) of different maturity (2, 8, and 16 weeks), and differences in the microorganisms in the three compost types and maturity stages were observed. Multivariate analysis showed that the bacterial composition of the three composts was different at the beginning of the composting process and became more similar upon maturation. Certain probes (targeting Sphingobacterium, Actinomyces, Xylella/Xanthomonas/ Stenotrophomonas, Microbacterium, Verrucomicrobia, Planctomycetes, Low G + C and Alphaproteobacteria) were more influential in discriminating between different composts. Results from denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis supported those of microarray analysis. This study showed that the COMPOCHIP array is a suitable tool to study bacterial communities in composts

Discordant effect of body mass index on bone mineral density and speed of sound

BACKGROUND: Increased BMI may affect the determination of bone mineral density (BMD) by dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) and speed of sound (SOS) measured across bones. Preliminary data suggest that axial SOS is less affected by soft tissue. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the effect of body mass index (BMI) on BMD and SOS measured along bones. METHODS: We compared axial BMD determined by DXA with SOS along the phalanx, radius and tibia in 22 overweight (BMI > 27 kg/m(2)), and 11 lean (BMI = 21 kg/m(2)) postmenopausal women. Serum bone specific alkaline phosphatase and urinary deoxypyridinoline excretion determined bone turnover. RESULTS: Mean femoral neck – but not lumbar spine BMD was higher in the overweight – as compared with the lean group (0.70 ± 0.82, -0.99 ± 0.52, P < 0.00001). Femoral neck BMD in the overweight – but not in the lean group highly correlated with BMI (R = 0.68. P < 0.0001). Mean SOS at all measurement sites was similar in both groups and did not correlate with BMI. Bone turnover was similar in the two study groups. CONCLUSIONS: The high BMI of postmenopausal women may result in spuriously high BMD. SOS measured along bones may be a more appropriate means for evaluating bones of overweight women

Transient Increase in Cyclic AMP Localized to Macrophage Phagosomes

Cyclic AMP (cAMP) regulates many biological processes and cellular functions. The importance of spatially localized intracellular gradients of cAMP is increasingly appreciated. Previous work in macrophages has shown that cAMP is produced during phagocytosis and that elevated cAMP levels suppress host defense functions, including generation of proinflammatory mediators, phagocytosis and killing. However, the spatial and kinetic characteristics of cAMP generation in phagocytosing macrophages have yet to be examined. Using a Förster resonance energy transfer (FRET)-based cAMP biosensor, we measured the generation of cAMP in live macrophages. We detected no difference in bulk intracellular cAMP levels between resting cells and cells actively phagocytosing IgG-opsonized particles. However, analysis with the biosensor revealed a rapid decrease in FRET signal corresponding to a transient burst of cAMP production localized to the forming phagosome. cAMP levels returned to baseline after the particle was internalized. These studies indicate that localized increases in cAMP accompany phagosome formation and provide a framework for a more complete understanding of how cAMP regulates macrophage host defense functions

A cardinal role for cathepsin D in co-ordinating the host-mediated apoptosis of macrophages and killing of pneumococci

The bactericidal function of macrophages against pneumococci is enhanced by their apoptotic demise, which is controlled by the anti-apoptotic protein Mcl-1. Here, we show that lysosomal membrane permeabilization (LMP) and cytosolic translocation of activated cathepsin D occur prior to activation of a mitochondrial pathway of macrophage apoptosis. Pharmacological inhibition or knockout of cathepsin D during pneumococcal infection blocked macrophage apoptosis. As a result of cathepsin D activation, Mcl-1 interacted with its ubiquitin ligase Mule and expression declined. Inhibition of cathepsin D had no effect on early bacterial killing but inhibited the late phase of apoptosis-associated killing of pneumococci in vitro. Mice bearing a cathepsin D-/- hematopoietic system demonstrated reduced macrophage apoptosis in vivo, with decreased clearance of pneumococci and enhanced recruitment of neutrophils to control pulmonary infection. These findings establish an unexpected role for a cathepsin D-mediated lysosomal pathway of apoptosis in pulmonary host defense and underscore the importance of apoptosis-associated microbial killing to macrophage function

Genetic polymorphism of the serine rich antigen N-terminal region in Plasmodium falciparum field isolates from Brazil

In this work we investigated the frequency of polymorphism in exon II of the gene encoding most of the amino-terminal region of the serine rich antigen (SERA) in Plasmodium falciparum field samples. The blood samples were colleted from P. falciparum infected individuals in three areas of the Brazilian Amazon. Two fragments have been characterized by polymerase chain reaction: one of 175 bp corresponding to the repeat region with 5 octamer units and one other of 199 bp related to the 6 repeat octamer units of SERA protein. The 199 bp fragment was the predominant one in all the studied areas. The higher frequency of this fragment has not been described before and could be explained by an immunological selection of the plasmodial population in the infected individuals under study. Since repeat motifs in the amino-terminal region of SERA contain epitopes recognized by parasite-inhibitor antibodies, data reported here suggest that the analysis of the polymorphism of P. falciparum isolates in different geographical areas is a preliminary stage before the final drawing of an universal vaccine against malaria can be reached

Biodiversity Loss and the Taxonomic Bottleneck: Emerging Biodiversity Science

Human domination of the Earth has resulted in dramatic changes to global and local patterns of biodiversity. Biodiversity is critical to human sustainability because it drives the ecosystem services that provide the core of our life-support system. As we, the human species, are the primary factor leading to the decline in biodiversity, we need detailed information about the biodiversity and species composition of specific locations in order to understand how different species contribute to ecosystem services and how humans can sustainably conserve and manage biodiversity. Taxonomy and ecology, two fundamental sciences that generate the knowledge about biodiversity, are associated with a number of limitations that prevent them from providing the information needed to fully understand the relevance of biodiversity in its entirety for human sustainability: (1) biodiversity conservation strategies that tend to be overly focused on research and policy on a global scale with little impact on local biodiversity; (2) the small knowledge base of extant global biodiversity; (3) a lack of much-needed site-specific data on the species composition of communities in human-dominated landscapes, which hinders ecosystem management and biodiversity conservation; (4) biodiversity studies with a lack of taxonomic precision; (5) a lack of taxonomic expertise and trained taxonomists; (6) a taxonomic bottleneck in biodiversity inventory and assessment; and (7) neglect of taxonomic resources and a lack of taxonomic service infrastructure for biodiversity science. These limitations are directly related to contemporary trends in research, conservation strategies, environmental stewardship, environmental education, sustainable development, and local site-specific conservation. Today’s biological knowledge is built on the known global biodiversity, which represents barely 20% of what is currently extant (commonly accepted estimate of 10 million species) on planet Earth. Much remains unexplored and unknown, particularly in hotspots regions of Africa, South Eastern Asia, and South and Central America, including many developing or underdeveloped countries, where localized biodiversity is scarcely studied or described. ‘‘Backyard biodiversity’’, defined as local biodiversity near human habitation, refers to the natural resources and capital for ecosystem services at the grassroots level, which urgently needs to be explored, documented, and conserved as it is the backbone of sustainable economic development in these countries. Beginning with early identification and documentation of local flora and fauna, taxonomy has documented global biodiversity and natural history based on the collection of ‘‘backyard biodiversity’’ specimens worldwide. However, this branch of science suffered a continuous decline in the latter half of the twentieth century, and has now reached a point of potential demise. At present there are very few professional taxonomists and trained local parataxonomists worldwide, while the need for, and demands on, taxonomic services by conservation and resource management communities are rapidly increasing. Systematic collections, the material basis of biodiversity information, have been neglected and abandoned, particularly at institutions of higher learning. Considering the rapid increase in the human population and urbanization, human sustainability requires new conceptual and practical approaches to refocusing and energizing the study of the biodiversity that is the core of natural resources for sustainable development and biotic capital for sustaining our life-support system. In this paper we aim to document and extrapolate the essence of biodiversity, discuss the state and nature of taxonomic demise, the trends of recent biodiversity studies, and suggest reasonable approaches to a biodiversity science to facilitate the expansion of global biodiversity knowledge and to create useful data on backyard biodiversity worldwide towards human sustainability

Breast cancer incidence and mortality in Tyrol/Austria after fifteen years of opportunistic mammography screening

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The aim of this study was to analyse breast cancer incidence and mortality in Tyrol from 1970 to 2006, namely after performing more than a decade of opportunistic mammography screening and just before piloting an organised screening programme. Our investigation was conducted on a population level.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>To study time trends in breast cancer incidence and mortality, we applied the age-period-cohort model by Poisson regression to the official mortality data covering more than three decades from 1970 to 2006 and to the incidence data ranging from 1988 to 2006. In addition, for incidence data we analysed data on breast cancer staging and compared these with EU guidelines.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>For the analysis of time trend in breast cancer mortality in age groups 40-79, an age-period-cohort model fits well and shows for years 2002-2006 a statistically significant reduction of 26% (95% CI 13%-36%) in breast cancer mortality as compared to 1992-1996.</p> <p>We see only slight non-significant increases in breast cancer incidence. For the past five years, incidence data show a 10% proportion of in situ cases, and of 50% for cases in stages II+.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The opportunistic breast cancer screening programme in Tyrol has only in part exploited the mortality reduction known for organised screening programmes. There seems to be potential for further improvement, and we recommend that an organised screening programme and a detailed screening database be introduced to collect all information needed to analyse the quality indicators suggested by the EU guidelines.</p