Projecting the 10-year costs of care and mortality burden of depression until 2032: a Markov modelling study developed from real-world data

\ua9 2024 The Authors. Background: Based on real-world data, we developed a 10-year prediction model to estimate the burden among patients with depression from the public healthcare system payer\u27s perspective to inform early resource planning in Hong Kong. Methods: We developed a Markov cohort model with yearly cycles specifically capturing the pathway of treatment-resistant depression (TRD) and comorbidity development along the disease course. Projected from 2023 to 2032, primary outcomes included costs of all-cause and psychiatric care, and secondary outcomes were all-cause deaths, years of life lived, and quality-adjusted life-years. Using the territory-wide electronic medical records, we identified 25,190 patients aged ≥10 years with newly diagnosed depression from 2014 to 2016 with follow-up until 2020 to observe the real-world time-to-event pattern, based on which costs and time-varying transition inputs were derived using negative binomial modelling and parametric survival analysis. We applied the model as both closed cohort, which studied a fixed cohort of incident patients in 2023, and open cohort, which introduced incident patients by year from 2014 to 2032. Utilities and annual new patients were from published sources. Findings: With 9217 new patients in 2023, our closed cohort model projected the 10-year cumulative costs of all-cause and psychiatric care to reach US$309.0 million and US$58.3 million, respectively, with 899 deaths (case fatality rate: 9.8%) by 2032. In our open cohort model, 55,849–57,896 active prevalent cases would cost more than US$322.3 million and US$60.7 million, respectively, with more than 943 deaths annually from 2023 to 2032. Fewer than 20% of cases would live with TRD or comorbidities but contribute 31–54% of the costs. The greatest collective burden would occur in women aged above 40, but men aged above 65 and below 25 with medical history would have the highest costs per patient-year. The key cost drivers were relevant to the early disease stages. Interpretation: A limited proportion of patients would develop TRD and comorbidities but contribute to a high proportion of costs, which necessitates appropriate attention and resource allocation. Our projection also demonstrates the application of real-world data to model long-term costs and mortality, which aid policymakers anticipate foreseeable burden and undertake budget planning to prepare for the care need in alternative scenarios. Funding: Research Impact Fund from the University Grants Committee, Research Grants Council with matching fund from the Hong Kong Association of Pharmaceutical Industry (R7007-22)

Social disorganization and history of child sexual abuse against girls in sub-Saharan Africa : a multilevel analysis

Background: Child sexual abuse (CSA) is a considerable public health problem. Less focus has been paid to the role of community level factors associated with CSA. The aim of this study was to examine the association between neighbourhood-level measures of social disorganization and CSA. Methods: We applied multiple multilevel logistic regression analysis on Demographic and Health Survey data for 6,351 adolescents from six countries in sub-Saharan Africa between 2006 and 2008. Results: The percentage of adolescents that had experienced CSA ranged from 1.04% to 5.84%. There was a significant variation in the odds of reporting CSA across the communities, suggesting 18% of the variation in CSA could be attributed to community level factors. Respondents currently employed were more likely to have reported CSA than those who were unemployed (odds ratio [OR] = 2.05, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.48 to 2.83). Respondents from communities with a high family disruption rate were 57% more likely to have reported CSA (OR=1.57, 95% CI 1.14 to 2.16). Conclusion: We found that exposure to CSA was associated with high community level of family disruption, thus suggesting that neighbourhoods may indeed have significant important effects on exposure to CSA. Further studies are needed to explore pathways that connect the individual and neighbourhood levels, that is, means through which deleterious neighbourhood effects are transmitted to individuals

Reassessing the value of vaccines

None

Cost-effectiveness of interventions to prevent road traffic injuries in low- and middle-income countries: A literature review

© 2017 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC. Objective: The objective of this study was to identify, critically appraise, summarize, and synthesize evidence from cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) of interventions aimed at preventing road traffic injuries (RTIs) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) by age group and road users targeted. Methods: A search strategy was applied to 12 electronic databases for studies published between May 2002 and August 2015 that met prespecified inclusion criteria. Additional studies were identified by contacting authors and searching bibliographies. Included studies were critically appraised against published criteria and a narrative synthesis was conducted including a use of the strength of evidence criteria. Results: Five studies were included in the final review that reported 9 interventions. Only 2 out of 9 interventions (drink-drive legislation with enforcement via breath testing campaign and combined interventions for reducing RTIs) showed moderate evidence of being cost-effective, whereas the evidence of cost-effectiveness of other interventions was weak. Only 2 interventions (bicycle and motorcycle helmet use legislation and enforcement) were explicitly targeted to children, young people and vulnerable road users such as pedestrians and cyclists. The cost-effectiveness of interventions to prevent RTIs in LMICs ranged from US$4.14 per disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted for building speed bumps at the most dangerous junctions that caused 10$3,403 per DALYs averted for legislation and enforcement of helmet use by motorcyclists in the World Health Organization (WHO) sub-Saharan Africa region. Conclusions: Evidence of cost-effectiveness of interventions to prevent RTIs in LMICs is limited, particularly for children, young people, and vulnerable road users. Evaluation of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a larger number of possible road safety interventions in a variety of LMIC settings is warranted to generate the evidence base for effective traffic injury prevention programs

First Observation of τ→3πηντ\tau\to 3\pi\eta\nu_{\tau} and τ→f1πντ\tau\to f_{1}\pi\nu_{\tau} Decays

We have observed new channels for $\tau$ decays with an $\eta$ in the final state. We study 3-prong tau decays, using the $\eta\to\gamma\gamma$ and \eta\to 3\piz decay modes and 1-prong decays with two \piz's using the $\eta\to\gamma\gamma$ channel. The measured branching fractions are \B(\tau^{-}\to \pi^{-}\pi^{-}\pi^{+}\eta\nu_{\tau}) =(3.4^{+0.6}_{-0.5}\pm0.6)\times10^{-4} and \B(\tau^{-}\to \pi^{-}2\piz\eta\nu_{\tau} =(1.4\pm0.6\pm0.3)\times10^{-4}. We observe clear evidence for $f_1\to\eta\pi\pi$ substructure and measure \B(\tau^{-}\to f_1\pi^{-}\nu_{\tau})=(5.8^{+1.4}_{-1.3}\pm1.8)\times10^{-4}. We have also searched for $\eta'(958)$ production and obtain 90% CL upper limits \B(\tau^{-}\to \pi^{-}\eta'\nu_\tau)<7.4\times10^{-5} and \B(\tau^{-}\to \pi^{-}\piz\eta'\nu_\tau)<8.0\times10^{-5}.Comment: 11 page postscript file, postscript file also available through http://w4.lns.cornell.edu/public/CLN

Search for the Decays B^0 -> D^{(*)+} D^{(*)-}

Using the CLEO-II data set we have searched for the Cabibbo-suppressed decays B^0 -> D^{(*)+} D^{(*)-}. For the decay B^0 -> D^{*+} D^{*-}, we observe one candidate signal event, with an expected background of 0.022 +/- 0.011 events. This yield corresponds to a branching fraction of Br(B^0 -> D^{*+} D^{*-}) = (5.3^{+7.1}_{-3.7}(stat) +/- 1.0(syst)) x 10^{-4} and an upper limit of Br(B^0 -> D^{*+} D^{*-}) D^{*\pm} D^\mp and B^0 -> D^+ D^-, no significant excess of signal above the expected background level is seen, and we calculate the 90% CL upper limits on the branching fractions to be Br(B^0 -> D^{*\pm} D^\mp) D^+ D^-) < 1.2 x 10^{-3}.Comment: 12 page postscript file also available through http://w4.lns.cornell.edu/public/CLNS, submitted to Physical Review Letter

Search for sterile neutrino mixing in the MINOS long-baseline experiment

A search for depletion of the combined flux of active neutrino species over a 735 km baseline is reported using neutral-current interaction data recorded by the MINOS detectors in the NuMI neutrino beam. Such a depletion is not expected according to conventional interpretations of neutrino oscillation data involving the three known neutrino flavors. A depletion would be a signature of oscillations or decay to postulated noninteracting sterile neutrinos, scenarios not ruled out by existing data. From an exposure of 3.18×1020 protons on target in which neutrinos of energies between ~500¿¿MeV and 120 GeV are produced predominantly as ¿µ, the visible energy spectrum of candidate neutral-current reactions in the MINOS far detector is reconstructed. Comparison of this spectrum to that inferred from a similarly selected near-detector sample shows that of the portion of the ¿µ flux observed to disappear in charged-current interaction data, the fraction that could be converting to a sterile state is less than 52% at 90% confidence level (C.L.). The hypothesis that active neutrinos mix with a single sterile neutrino via oscillations is tested by fitting the data to various models. In the particular four-neutrino models considered, the mixing angles ¿24 and ¿34 are constrained to be less than 11° and 56° at 90% C.L., respectively. The possibility that active neutrinos may decay to sterile neutrinos is also investigated. Pure neutrino decay without oscillations is ruled out at 5.4 standard deviations. For the scenario in which active neutrinos decay into sterile states concurrently with neutrino oscillations, a lower limit is established for the neutrino decay lifetime t3/m3&gt;2.1×10-12¿¿s/eV at 90% C.L

ΛΛˉ\Lambda\bar{\Lambda} Production in Two-Photon Interactions at CLEO

Using the CLEO detector at the Cornell $e^+e^-$ storage ring, CESR, we study the two-photon production of $\Lambda \bar{\Lambda}$, making the first observation of $\gamma \gamma \to \Lambda \bar{\Lambda}$. We present the cross-section for $\gamma \gamma \to \Lambda \bar{\Lambda}$ as a function of the $\gamma \gamma$ center of mass energy and compare it to that predicted by the quark-diquark model.Comment: 10 pages, postscript file also available through http://w4.lns.cornell.edu/public/CLN

Pertussis resurgence in Toronto, Canada: a population-based study including test-incidence feedback modeling

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Pertussis continues to challenge medical professionals; recently described increases in incidence may be due to age-cohort effects, vaccine effectiveness, or changes in testing patterns. Toronto, Canada has recently experienced increases in pertussis incidence, and provides an ideal jurisdiction for evaluating pertussis epidemiology due to centralized testing. We evaluated pertussis trends in Toronto using all available specimen data, which allowed us to control for changing testing patterns and practices.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data included all pertussis culture and PCR test records for Greater Toronto from 1993 to 2007. We estimated incidence trends using Poisson regression models; complex relationships between disease incidence and test submission were explored with vector autoregressive models.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>From 1993 to 2007, 26988 specimens were submitted for testing; 2545 (9.4%) were positive. Pertussis incidence was 2 per 100,000 from 1993 to 2004 and increased to 10 per 100,000 from 2005-2007, with a concomitant 6-fold surge in test specimen submissions after the introduction of a new, more sensitive PCR assay. The relative change in incidence was less marked after adjustment for testing volumes. Bidirectional feedbacks between test positivity and test submissions were identified.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Toronto's recent surge in pertussis reflects a true increase in local disease activity; the apparent size of the outbreak has likely been magnified by increasing use of pertussis testing by clinicians, and by improved test sensitivity since 2005. These findings may be applicable to changes in pertussis epidemiology that have been noted elsewhere in North America.</p