Disease surveillance using a hidden Markov model

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Routine surveillance of disease notification data can enable the early detection of localised disease outbreaks. Although hidden Markov models (HMMs) have been recognised as an appropriate method to model disease surveillance data, they have been rarely applied in public health practice. We aimed to develop and evaluate a simple flexible HMM for disease surveillance which is suitable for use with sparse small area count data and requires little baseline data.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A Bayesian HMM was designed to monitor routinely collected notifiable disease data that are aggregated by residential postcode. Semi-synthetic data were used to evaluate the algorithm and compare outbreak detection performance with the established Early Aberration Reporting System (EARS) algorithms and a negative binomial cusum.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Algorithm performance varied according to the desired false alarm rate for surveillance. At false alarm rates around 0.05, the cusum-based algorithms provided the best overall outbreak detection performance, having similar sensitivity to the HMMs and a shorter average time to detection. At false alarm rates around 0.01, the HMM algorithms provided the best overall outbreak detection performance, having higher sensitivity than the cusum-based Methods and a generally shorter time to detection for larger outbreaks. Overall, the 14-day HMM had a significantly greater area under the receiver operator characteristic curve than the EARS C3 and 7-day negative binomial cusum algorithms.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our findings suggest that the HMM provides an effective method for the surveillance of sparse small area notifiable disease data at low false alarm rates. Further investigations are required to evaluation algorithm performance across other diseases and surveillance contexts.</p

Novel Decapeptides that Bind Avidly and Deliver Radioisotope to Colon Cancer Cells

The rapidly growing field of targeted tumor therapy often utilizes an antibody, sometimes tagged with a tumor-ablating material such as radioisotope, directed against a specific molecule.This report describes the discovery of nine novel decapeptides which can be radioactively labeled, bind to, and deliver (32)P to colon cancer cells. The decapeptides vary from one another by one to three amino acids and demonstrate vastly different binding abilities. The most avidly binding decapeptide can permanently deliver very high levels of radioisotope to the adenocarcinoma cancer cell lines at an efficiency 35 to 150 times greater than to a variety of other cell types, including cell lines derived from other types of cancer or from normal tissue.This experimental approach represents a new example of a strategy, termed peptide binding therapy, for the potential treatment of colorectal and other adenocarcinomas

Long-term complete responses after 131I-tositumomab therapy for relapsed or refractory indolent non-Hodgkin's lymphoma

We present the long-term results of 18 chemotherapy relapsed indolent (N=12) or transformed (N=6) NHL patients of a phase II anti-CD20 131I-tositumomab (Bexxar®) therapy study. The biphasic therapy included two injections of 450 mg unlabelled antibody combined with 131I-tositumomab once as dosimetric and once as therapeutic activity delivering 75 or 65 cGy whole-body radiation dose to patients with normal or reduced platelet counts, respectively. Two patients were not treated due to disease progression during dosimetry. The overall response rate was 81% in the 16 patients treated, including 50% CR/CRu and 31% PR. Median progression free survival of the 16 patients was 22.5 months. Median overall survival has not been reached after a median observation of 48 months. Median PFS of complete responders (CR/CRu) has not been reached and will be greater than 51 months. Short-term side effects were mainly haematological and transient. Among the relevant long-term side effects, one patient previously treated with CHOP chemotherapy died from secondary myelodysplasia. Four patients developed HAMA. In conclusion, 131I-tositumomab RIT demonstrated durable responses especially in those patients who achieved a complete response. Six of eight CR/CRu are ongoing after 46–70 months

Adoptive T-cell therapy improves treatment of canine non–Hodgkin lymphoma post chemotherapy

Clinical observations reveal that an augmented pace of T-cell recovery after chemotherapy correlates with improved tumor-free survival, suggesting the add-back of T cells after chemotherapy may improve outcomes. To evaluate adoptive immunotherapy treatment for B-lineage non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), we expanded T cells from client-owned canines diagnosed with NHL on artificial antigen presenting cells (aAPC) in the presence of human interleukin (IL)-2 and IL-21. Graded doses of autologous T cells were infused after CHOP chemotherapy and persisted for 49 days, homed to tumor, and significantly improved survival. Serum thymidine kinase changes predicted T-cell engraftment, while anti-tumor effects correlated with neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratios and granzyme B expression in manufactured T cells. Therefore, chemotherapy can be used to modulate infused T-cell responses to enhance anti-tumor effects. The companion canine model has translational implications for human immunotherapy which can be readily exploited since clinical-grade canine and human T cells are propagated using identical approaches

Waterborne microbial risk assessment : a population-based dose-response function for Giardia spp. (E.MI.R.A study)

BACKGROUND: Dose-response parameters based on clinical challenges are frequently used to assess the health impact of protozoa in drinking water. We compare the risk estimates associated with Giardia in drinking water derived from the dose-response parameter published in the literature and the incidence of acute digestive conditions (ADC) measured in the framework of an epidemiological study in a general population. METHODS: The study combined a daily follow-up of digestive morbidity among a panel of 544 volunteers and a microbiological surveillance of tap water. The relationship between incidence of ADC and concentrations of Giardia cysts was modeled with Generalized Estimating Equations, adjusting on community, age, tap water intake, presence of bacterial indicators, and genetic markers of viruses. The quantitative estimate of Giardia dose was the product of the declared amount of drinking water intake (in L) by the logarithm of cysts concentrations. RESULTS: The Odds Ratio for one unit of dose [OR = 1.76 (95% CI: 1.21, 2.55)] showed a very good consistency with the risk assessment estimate computed after the literature dose-response, provided application of a 20 % abatement factor to the cysts counts that were measured in the epidemiological study. Doing so, a daily water intake of 2 L and a Giardia concentration of 10 cysts/100 L, would yield an estimated relative excess risk of 12 % according to the Rendtorff model, against 11 % when multiplying the baseline rate of ADC by the corresponding OR. This abatement parameter encompasses uncertainties associated with germ viability, infectivity and virulence in natural settings. CONCLUSION: The dose-response function for waterborne Giardia risk derived from clinical experiments is consistent with epidemiological data. However, much remains to be learned about key characteristics that may heavily influence quantitative risk assessment results

Climate, human behaviour or environment: individual-based modelling of Campylobacter seasonality and strategies to reduce disease burden

Acknowledgements: We thank colleagues within the Modelling, Evidence and Policy Research Group for useful feedback on this manuscript. Competing interests: The authors declare that they have no competing interests. Availability of data and materials: The R code used in this research is available at https://gitlab.com/rasanderson/campylobacter-microsimulation; it is platform independent, R version 3.3.0 and above. Funding: This research was funded by Medical Research Council Grant, Natural Environment Research Council, Economic and Social Research Council, Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council, and the Food Standards Agency through the Environmental and Social Ecology of Human Infectious Diseases Initiative (Sources, seasonality, transmission and control: Campylobacter and human behaviour in a changing environment (ENIGMA); Grant Reference G1100799-1). PRH, SJO’B, and IRL are funded in part by the NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Gastrointestinal Infection, at the University of Liverpool. PRH and IRL are also funded in part by the NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Emergency Preparedness and Response, at King’s College London. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR, the Department of Health or Public Health England.Peer reviewedPublisher PD