Analysing and Recommending Options for Maintaining Universal Coverage with Long-Lasting Insecticidal Nets: The Case of Tanzania in 2011.

Tanzania achieved universal coverage with long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) in October 2011, after three years of free mass net distribution campaigns and is now faced with the challenge of maintaining high coverage as nets wear out and the population grows. A process of exploring options for a continuous or "Keep-Up" distribution system was initiated in early 2011. This paper presents for the first time a comprehensive national process to review the major considerations, findings and recommendations for the implementation of a new strategy. Stakeholder meetings and site visits were conducted in five locations in Tanzania to garner stakeholder input on the proposed distribution systems. Coverage levels for LLINs and their decline over time were modelled using NetCALC software, taking realistic net decay rates, current demographic profiles and other relevant parameters into consideration. Costs of the different distribution systems were estimated using local data. LLIN delivery was considered via mass campaigns, Antenatal Care-Expanded Programme on Immunization (ANC/EPI), community-based distribution, schools, the commercial sector and different combinations of the above. Most approaches appeared unlikely to maintain universal coverage when used alone. Mass campaigns, even when combined with a continuation of the Tanzania National Voucher Scheme (TNVS), would produce large temporal fluctuations in coverage levels; over 10 years this strategy would require 63.3 million LLINs and a total cost of $444 million USD. Community mechanisms, while able to deliver the required numbers of LLINs, would require a massive scale-up in monitoring, evaluation and supervision systems to ensure accurate application of identification criteria at the community level. School-based approaches combined with the existing TNVS would reach most Tanzanian households and deliver 65.4 million LLINs over 10 years at a total cost of$449 million USD and ensure continuous coverage. The cost of each strategy was largely driven by the number of LLINs delivered. The most cost-efficient strategy to maintain universal coverage is one that best optimizes the numbers of LLINs needed over time. A school-based approach using vouchers targeting all students in Standards 1, 3, 5, 7 and Forms 1 and 2 in combination with the TNVS appears to meet best the criteria of effectiveness, equity and efficiency

Is using multiple imputation better than complete case analysis for estimating a prevalence (risk) difference in randomized controlled trials when binary outcome observations are missing?

Background Missing outcomes can seriously impair the ability to make correct inferences from randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Complete case (CC) analysis is commonly used, but it reduces sample size and is perceived to lead to reduced statistical efficiency of estimates while increasing the potential for bias. As multiple imputation (MI) methods preserve sample size, they are generally viewed as the preferred analytical approach. We examined this assumption, comparing the performance of CC and MI methods to determine risk difference (RD) estimates in the presence of missing binary outcomes. We conducted simulation studies of 5000 simulated data sets with 50 imputations of RCTs with one primary follow-up endpoint at different underlying levels of RD (3–25 %) and missing outcomes (5–30 %). Results For missing at random (MAR) or missing completely at random (MCAR) outcomes, CC method estimates generally remained unbiased and achieved precision similar to or better than MI methods, and high statistical coverage. Missing not at random (MNAR) scenarios yielded invalid inferences with both methods. Effect size estimate bias was reduced in MI methods by always including group membership even if this was unrelated to missingness. Surprisingly, under MAR and MCAR conditions in the assessed scenarios, MI offered no statistical advantage over CC methods. Conclusions While MI must inherently accompany CC methods for intention-to-treat analyses, these findings endorse CC methods for per protocol risk difference analyses in these conditions. These findings provide an argument for the use of the CC approach to always complement MI analyses, with the usual caveat that the validity of the mechanism for missingness be thoroughly discussed. More importantly, researchers should strive to collect as much data as possible

Design, implementation and evaluation of a national campaign to distribute nine million free LLINs to children under five years of age in Tanzania.

BACKGROUND\ud \ud After a national voucher scheme in 2004 provided pregnant women and infants with highly subsidized insecticide-treated nets (ITNs), use among children under five years (U5s) in mainland Tanzania increased from 16% in 2004 to 26.2% in 2007. In 2008, the Ministry of Health and Social Welfare planned a catch-up campaign to rapidly and equitably deliver a free long-lasting insecticidal net (LLIN) to every child under five years in Tanzania.\ud \ud METHODS\ud \ud The ITN Cell, a unit within the National Malaria Control Programme (NMCP), coordinated the campaign on behalf of the Ministry of Health and Social Welfare. Government contractors trained and facilitated local government officials to supervise village-level volunteers on a registration of all U5s and the distribution and issuing of LLINs. The registration results formed the basis for the LLIN order and delivery to village level. Caregivers brought their registration coupons to village issuing posts during a three-day period where they received LLINs for their U5s. Household surveys in five districts assessed ITN ownership and use immediately after the campaign.\ud \ud RESULTS\ud \ud Nine donors contributed to the national campaign that purchased and distributed 9.0 million LLINs at an average cost of $7.07 per LLIN, including all campaign-associated activities. The campaign covered all eight zones of mainland Tanzania, the first region being covered separately during an integrated measles immunization/malaria LLIN distribution in August 2008, and was implemented one zone at a time from March 2009 until May 2010. ITN ownership at household level increased from Tanzania's 2008 national average of 45.7% to 63.4%, with significant regional variations. ITN use among U5s increased from 28.8% to 64.1%, a 2.2-fold increase, with increases ranging from 22.1-38.3% percentage points in different regions.\ud \ud CONCLUSION\ud \ud A national-level LLIN distribution strategy that fully engaged local government authorities helped avoid additional burden on the healthcare system. Distribution costs per net were comparable to other public health interventions. Particularly among rural residents, ITN ownership and use increased significantly for the intended beneficiaries. The upcoming universal LLIN distribution and further behaviour change communication will further improve ITN ownership and use in 2010-2011

Access and adequate utilization of malaria control interventions in rural Malawi: a descriptive quantitative study

BACKGROUND: Despite the availability of cost effective malaria control interventions, such as insecticide-treated bed nets (ITN), diagnosis and effective treatment of malaria, and intermittent preventive treatment during pregnancy (IPTp), the lack of equitable access and coverage affect utilization of these interventions in rural communities. Aggregated rates of access and utilization of malaria interventions in national surveys mask substantial variations in intervention coverage. Utilization of interventions and factors affecting utilization need investigation in rural communities. METHODS: One year of quantitative data collected from a rolling Malaria Indicator Survey (April 2015-April 2016) in Chikhwawa District, Malawi, before the ITN distribution campaign, were analysed. Univariate analyses were used to quantify rates of ITN usage, care-seeking for fever in children aged 6-59 months and women aged 15-49 years and IPTp uptake (for women aged 15-49 years with a recent delivery). Results were compared to national survey estimates; factors associated with these outcomes were determined using multivariate regression models. RESULTS: A total of 2046 participants were included from 1328 households; 56.6% were women aged 15-49 years and 43.4% were children aged 6-59 months. Reported ownership of at least one ITN per household and under-five children ITN use the previous night were 35.3 and 33.5% compared to 70.2 and 67.1%, respectively, in the national survey; ITN use was higher in high wealth quintile households than low quintile ones. For participants with recent fever, 37.6 and 19.5% sought care and sought care within 24 h, respectively. Care-seeking was lower for febrile women than febrile children [aOR, 95% CI 0.53 (0.35-0.81)]. Uptake of two and three or more doses of IPTp were 40.6 and 15.0%, respectively, among women with a pregnancy in the last 2 years. CONCLUSION: To achieve effective malaria control, fine-scale or district-based surveillance should be used to identify and target communities requiring scaling up of interventions. Qualitative research and a participatory community approach should be used to address behavioural factors affecting how people make use of interventions

Geostatistical analysis of Malawi’s changing malaria transmission from 2010 to 2017

Background: The prevalence of malaria infection in time and space provides important information on the likely sub-national epidemiology of malaria burdens and how this has changed following intervention. Model-based geostatitics (MBG) allow national malaria control programmes to leverage multiple data sources to provide predictions of malaria prevalance by district over time. These methods are used to explore the possible changes in malaria prevalance in Malawi from 2010 to 2017.  Methods: Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence ( Pf PR) surveys undertaken in Malawi between 2000 and 2017 were assembled. A spatio-temporal geostatistical model was fitted to predict annual malaria risk for children aged 2–10 years ( Pf PR 2–10 ) at 1×1 km spatial resolutions. Parameter estimation was carried out using the Monte Carlo maximum likelihood methods. Population-adjusted prevalence and populations at risk by district were calculated for 2010 and 2017 to inform malaria control program priority setting. Results: 2,237 surveys at 1,834 communities undertaken between 2000 and 2017 were identified, geo-coded and used within the MBG framework to predict district malaria prevalence properties for 2010 and 2017. Nationally, there was a 47.2% reduction in the mean modelled Pf PR 2-10 from 29.4% (95% confidence interval (CI) 26.6 to 32.3%) in 2010 to 15.2% (95% CI 13.3 to 18.0%) in 2017. Declining prevalence was not equal across the country, 25 of 27 districts showed a substantial decline ranging from a 3.3% reduction to 79% reduction. By 2017, 16% of Malawi’s population still lived in areas that support Pf PR 2-10 ≥ 25%. Conclusions: Malawi has made substantial progress in reducing the prevalence of malaria over the last seven years. However, Malawi remains in meso -endemic malaria transmission risk. To sustain the gains made and continue reducing the transmission further, universal control interventions need to be maintained at a national level

African Malaria Control Programs Deliver ITNs and Achieve What the Clinical Trials Predicted

Thomas Eisele and Richard Steketee discuss new research in PLoS Medicine by Stephen Lim and colleagues that examined the association of insecticide-treated nets with the reduction of P. falciparum prevalence in children under 5 and all-cause post-neonatal mortality

Does the drug sensitivity of malaria parasites depend on their virulence?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Chemotherapy can prompt the evolution of classical drug resistance, but selection can also favour other parasite traits that confer a survival advantage in the presence of drugs. The experiments reported here test the hypothesis that sub-optimal drug treatment of malaria parasites might generate survival and transmission advantages for virulent parasites.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Two <it>Plasmodium chabaudi </it>lines, one derived from the other by serial passage, were used to establish avirulent and virulent infections in mice. After five days, infections were treated with various doses of pyrimethamine administered over 1 or 4 days. Virulence measures (weight and anaemia), parasite and gametocyte dynamics were followed until day 21.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>All treatment regimes reduced parasite and gametocyte densities, but infections with the virulent line always produced more parasites and more gametocytes than infections with the avirulent line. Consistent with our hypothesis, drug treatment was disproportionately effective against the less virulent parasites. Treatment did not affect the relative transmission advantage of the virulent line. Neither of the lines contained known mutations conferring classical drug resistance.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Drug-sensitivity of malaria parasites can be virulence-dependent, with virulent parasites more likely to survive sub-optimal treatment. If this proves to be general for a variety of drugs and parasite species, selection imposed by sub-optimal drug treatment could result in the evolution of more aggressive malaria parasites.</p

Can universal insecticide-treated net campaigns achieve equity in coverage and use? the case of northern Nigeria

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) are effective tools for malaria prevention and can significantly reduce severe disease and mortality due to malaria, especially among children under five in endemic areas. However, ITN coverage and use remain low and inequitable among different socio-economic groups in sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in Nigeria. Several strategies have been proposed to increase coverage and use and reduce inequity in Nigeria, including free distribution campaigns recently conducted by the Nigerian federal government. Using data from the first post-campaign survey, the authors investigated the effect of the mass free distribution campaigns in achieving equity in household ownership and use of ITNs.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A post-campaign survey was undertaken in November 2009 in northern Nigeria to assess the effect of the campaigns in addressing equity across different socio-economic groups. The survey included 987 households randomly selected from 60 clusters in Kano state. Using logistic regression and the Lorenz concentration curve and index, the authors assessed equity in ITN coverage and use.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>ITN ownership coverage increased from 10% before the campaigns to 70%-a more than fivefold increase. The campaigns reduced the ownership coverage gap by 75%, effectively reaching parity among wealth quintiles (Concentration index 0.02, 95% CI (-0.02 ; 0.05) versus 0.21 95%CI (0.08 ; 0.34) before the campaigns). ITN use (individuals reporting having slept under an ITN the night before the survey visit) among individuals from households owning at least one ITN, was 53.1% with no statistically significant difference between the lowest, second, third and fourth wealth quintiles and the highest wealth quintile (lowest: odds ratio (OR) 0.87, 95% confidence interval (CI) (0.67 ; 1.13); second: OR 0.85, 95% CI (0.66 ; 1.24); third: OR 1.10 95% CI (0.86 ; 1.4) and fourth OR 0.91 95% CI (0.72 ; 1.15).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The campaign had a significant impact by increasing ITN coverage and reducing inequity in ownership and use. Free ITN distribution campaigns should be sustained to increase equitable coverage. These campaigns should be supplemented with other ITN distribution strategies to cover newborns and replace aging nets.</p

Claims about the Misuse of Insecticide-Treated Mosquito Nets: Are These Evidence-Based?

Thomas Eisele and colleagues dispute reports in the media and elsewhere that insecticide-treated nets are not widely used, or are misused, and say that such misconceptions are not evidence-based and are damaging to malaria control efforts

Therapeutic efficacy of sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine and chloroquine for the treatment of uncomplicated malaria in pregnancy in Burkina Faso

BACKGROUND: A reduction in the therapeutic efficacy of chloroquine (CQ) and sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) has recently been observed in Burkina Faso. As these two drugs are used in pregnancy, their efficacy in pregnant women was studied to directly assess the level of drug resistance in this specific population, rather than to extrapolate results of studies conducted in children < 5 years of age. METHODS: During the malaria transmission season of 2003 in Ouagadougou, the clinical efficacy of SP and CQ, using the WHO 28-day protocol, was assessed in primigravidae and secundigravidae presenting with uncomplicated malaria. RESULTS: PCR-corrected results by day 28 showed that among 62 women treated with SP, eight (12.9%) experienced late parasitological failure, but no clinical failures. Among 60 women treated with CQ, the overall failure rate was 46.7% including 1.7% early treatment failures, 5% late clinical failures and 40% late parasitological failures. SP induced a haemoglobin gain of 0.3 g/dL by day 14 and 0.9 g/dL by day 28. Treatment responses were independent of gravidity, gestational age and prior antenatal care visits. CONCLUSION: While CQ should no longer be used, the efficacy of SP is still compatible with use for intermittent preventive treatment (IPT) in pregnancy. However, given the possible spread of resistance, the drug should be restricted in its use