Bayesian Hierarchical Models Combining Different Study Types and Adjusting for Covariate Imbalances: A Simulation Study to Assess Model Performance

BACKGROUND: Bayesian hierarchical models have been proposed to combine evidence from different types of study designs. However, when combining evidence from randomised and non-randomised controlled studies, imbalances in patient characteristics between study arms may bias the results. The objective of this study was to assess the performance of a proposed Bayesian approach to adjust for imbalances in patient level covariates when combining evidence from both types of study designs. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Simulation techniques, in which the truth is known, were used to generate sets of data for randomised and non-randomised studies. Covariate imbalances between study arms were introduced in the non-randomised studies. The performance of the Bayesian hierarchical model adjusted for imbalances was assessed in terms of bias. The data were also modelled using three other Bayesian approaches for synthesising evidence from randomised and non-randomised studies. The simulations considered six scenarios aimed at assessing the sensitivity of the results to changes in the impact of the imbalances and the relative number and size of studies of each type. For all six scenarios considered, the Bayesian hierarchical model adjusted for differences within studies gave results that were unbiased and closest to the true value compared to the other models. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Where informed health care decision making requires the synthesis of evidence from randomised and non-randomised study designs, the proposed hierarchical Bayesian method adjusted for differences in patient characteristics between study arms may facilitate the optimal use of all available evidence leading to unbiased results compared to unadjusted analyses

Infratentorial superficial siderosis: Classification, diagnostic criteria and rational investigation pathway

Central nervous system infratentorial superficial siderosis (iSS) is increasingly detected by blood-sensitive MRI sequences. Despite this, there are no standardized diagnostic criteria, and the clinical-radiological spectrum, causes and optimum investigation strategy are not established. We reviewed clinical and radiological details of patients with iSS assessed at a specialist neurological center from 2004-2016 using pre-defined standardized radiological criteria. All imaging findings were rated blinded to clinical details. We identified 65 patients with iSS, which we classified into two groups: type 1 (classical) and type 2 (secondary) iSS. Type 1 (classical) iSS included 48 patients without any potentially causal radiologically-confirmed spontaneous or traumatic intracranial hemorrhage, of whom 39 (83%) had hearing loss, ataxia or myelopathy; type 2 (secondary) iSS included 17 patients with a potentially causal radiologically-confirmed spontaneous or traumatic intracranial hemorrhage, of whom none had hearing loss, ataxia or myelopathy. Of the patients with type 1 (classical) iSS, 40 (83%) had a potentially causal cranial or spinal dural abnormality; 5 (11%) had an alternative cause; and 3 (6%) had no cause identified. Intra-arterial digital subtraction angiography did not identify any underlying causal lesions for type 1 iSS. Type 1 (classical) iSS, defined using simple radiological criteria, is associated with a characteristic neurological syndrome. Rational investigation, including spinal MRI, nearly always reveals a potential cause, most often a dural abnormality. Catheter angiography appears to be unhelpful, suggesting that classical iSS is not associated with macrovascular arterial pathology. Recognition of type 1 (classical) iSS should allow timely diagnosis and early consideration of treatment

The importance of adjusting for potential confounders in Bayesian hierarchical models synthesising evidence from randomised and non-randomised studies: an application comparing treatments for abdominal aortic aneurysms

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Informing health care decision making may necessitate the synthesis of evidence from different study designs (e.g., randomised controlled trials, non-randomised/observational studies). Methods for synthesising different types of studies have been proposed, but their routine use requires development of approaches to adjust for potential biases, especially among non-randomised studies. The objective of this study was to extend a published Bayesian hierarchical model to adjust for bias due to confounding in synthesising evidence from studies with different designs.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In this new methodological approach, study estimates were adjusted for potential confounders using differences in patient characteristics (e.g., age) between study arms. The new model was applied to synthesise evidence from randomised and non-randomised studies from a published review comparing treatments for abdominal aortic aneurysms. We compared the results of the Bayesian hierarchical model adjusted for differences in study arms with: 1) unadjusted results, 2) results adjusted using aggregate study values and 3) two methods for downweighting the potentially biased non-randomised studies. Sensitivity of the results to alternative prior distributions and the inclusion of additional covariates were also assessed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In the base case analysis, the estimated odds ratio was 0.32 (0.13,0.76) for the randomised studies alone and 0.57 (0.41,0.82) for the non-randomised studies alone. The unadjusted result for the two types combined was 0.49 (0.21,0.98). Adjusted for differences between study arms, the estimated odds ratio was 0.37 (0.17,0.77), representing a shift towards the estimate for the randomised studies alone. Adjustment for aggregate values resulted in an estimate of 0.60 (0.28,1.20). The two methods used for downweighting gave odd ratios of 0.43 (0.18,0.89) and 0.35 (0.16,0.76), respectively. Point estimates were robust but credible intervals were wider when using vaguer priors.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Covariate adjustment using aggregate study values does not account for covariate imbalances between treatment arms and downweighting may not eliminate bias. Adjustment using differences in patient characteristics between arms provides a systematic way of adjusting for bias due to confounding. Within the context of a Bayesian hierarchical model, such an approach could facilitate the use of all available evidence to inform health policy decisions.</p

Immune complex formation impairs the elimination of solutes from the brain: implications for immunotherapy in Alzheimer's disease

Background: Basement membranes in the walls of cerebral capillaries and arteries form a major lymphatic drainage pathway for fluid and solutes from the brain. Amyloid-β (Aβ) draining from the brain is deposited in such perivascular pathways as cerebral amyloid angiopathy (CAA) in Alzheimer's disease (AD). CAA increases in severity when Aβ is removed from the brain parenchyma by immunotherapy for AD. In this study we investigated the consequences of immune complexes in artery walls upon drainage of solutes similar to soluble Aβ. We tested the hypothesis that, following active immunization with ovalbumin, immune complexes form within the walls of cerebral arteries and impair the perivascular drainage of solutes from the brain. Mice were immunized against ovalbumin and then challenged by intracerebral microinjection of ovalbumin. Perivascular drainage of solutes was quantified following intracerebral microinjection of soluble fluorescent 3kDa dextran into the brain at different time intervals after intracerebral challenge with ovalbumin. Results: Ovalbumin, IgG and complement C3 co-localized in basement membranes of artery walls 24 hrs after challenge with antigen; this was associated with significantly reduced drainage of dextran in immunized mice. Conclusions: Perivascular drainage along artery walls returned to normal by 7 days. These results indicate that immune complexes form in association with basement membranes of cerebral arteries and interfere transiently with perivascular drainage of solutes from the brain. Immune complexes formed during immunotherapy for AD may similarly impair perivascular drainage of soluble Aβ and increase severity of CAA

Dexamethasone potentiates the antiangiogenic activity of docetaxel in castration-resistant prostate cancer

We sought to characterise whether dexamethasone (DEX) may enhance tumour response to docetaxel in in vitro and in vivo models of metastatic prostate cancer (CaP). In vitro experiments conducted on PC3 and human bone marrow endothelial cells (hBMECs) determined that administration of DEX (10 nM) reduced constitutive nuclear factor-κB (NF-κB) activity, decreasing interleukin (IL)-8, CXCL1 and VEGF gene expression in PC3 cells. Dexamethasone also attenuated docetaxel-induced NF-κB and activator protein-1 transcription and reduced docetaxel-promoted expression/secretion of IL-8 and CXCL1 in PC3 and hBMECs. Although DEX failed to enhance docetaxel cytotoxicity on PC3 cells, DEX potentiated the antiangiogenic activity of docetaxel in vitro, further reducing vessel area and vessel length in developing endothelial tubes (P<0.05). Docetaxel had a potent antiangiogenic activity in the dorsal skin flap-implanted PC3 tumours in vivo. Small blood vessel formation was further suppressed in tumours co-treated with docetaxel and DEX, substantiated by an increased average vessel diameter and segment length and a decreased number of branch points in the residual tumour vasculature (P<0.001). Our data show that DEX potentiates the antiangiogenic activity of docetaxel, suggesting a putative mechanism for the palliative and survival benefits of these agents in metastatic CaP

Molecules cooled below the Doppler limit

The ability to cool atoms below the Doppler limit -- the minimum temperature reachable by Doppler cooling -- has been essential to most experiments with quantum degenerate gases, optical lattices and atomic fountains, among many other applications. A broad set of new applications await ultracold molecules, and the extension of laser cooling to molecules has begun. A molecular magneto-optical trap has been demonstrated, where molecules approached the Doppler limit. However, the sub-Doppler temperatures required for most applications have not yet been reached. Here we cool molecules to 50 uK, well below the Doppler limit, using a three-dimensional optical molasses. These ultracold molecules could be loaded into optical tweezers to trap arbitrary arrays for quantum simulation, launched into a molecular fountain for testing fundamental physics, and used to study ultracold collisions and ultracold chemistry

Attribution of physical complaints to the air disaster in Amsterdam by exposed rescue workers: an epidemiological study using historic cohorts

BACKGROUND: In 1992 a cargo aircraft crashed into a residential area of Amsterdam. A troublesome aftermath followed, with rumors on potential toxic exposures and health consequences. Health concerns remained even though no excess morbidity was predicted in retrospective risk evaluations. This study aimed to assess to what extent the rescue workers attribute long-term physical complaints to this disaster, including its aftermath, and to examine associations between such attribution and types of exposure and background variables. METHODS: Historic cohort study that collected questionnaire data on occupational disaster exposure, attribution of physical complaints, and background variables on average 8.5 years post-disaster. For the present study the workers who were exposed to the disaster were selected from the historic cohort, i.e. the professional firefighters (n = 334), police officers (n = 834), and accident and wreckage investigators (n = 241) who performed disaster-related tasks. RESULTS: Across the three occupational groups, a consistent percentage (ranging from 43% to 49%) of exposed workers with long-term physical complaints attributed these to the disaster, including its aftermath. Those with more physical complaints attributed these to a stronger degree. Multivariate logistic regression analyses showed that attribution was significantly more often reported by firefighters who rescued people, and by police officers who reported the identification and recovery of or search for victims and human remains, clean-up, or security and surveillance of the disaster area; who witnessed the immediate disaster scene; who had a close one affected by the disaster; and who perceived the disaster as the worst thing that ever happened to them. Age, sex and educational level were not significantly associated with attribution. CONCLUSION: This study provides further cross-sectional evidence for the role of causal attribution in post-disaster subjective physical health problems. After on average 8.5 years, almost a third (32%) of all the exposed workers, and almost half (45%) of the exposed workers with physical complaints, attributed these complaints to the disaster, including its aftermath. The similarity of the results across the occupational groups suggests a general rather than an occupation-specific attribution process. Longitudinal studies are needed to determine whether causal disaster attribution leads to persistence of post-disaster complaints and health care utilization

Interleukin-1 receptor antagonist haplotype associated with prostate cancer risk

IL1-RN is an important anti-inflammatory cytokine that modulate the inflammation response by binding to IL1 receptors, and as a consequence inhibits the action of proinflammatory cytokines IL1α and IL1β. In this study, we hypothesise that sequence variants in the IL1-RN gene are associated with prostate cancer risk. The study population, a population-based case–control study in Sweden, consisted of 1383 prostate cancer case patients and 779 control subjects. We first selected 18 sequence variants covering the IL1-RN gene and genotyped these single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 96 control subjects. Gene-specific haplotypes of IL1-RN were constructed and four haplotype-tagging single-nucleotide polymorphisms (htSNPs) were identified (rs878972, rs315934, rs3087263 and rs315951) that could uniquely describe >95% of the haplotypes. All study subjects were genotyped for the four htSNPs. No significant difference in genotype frequencies between cases and controls were observed for any of the four SNPs based on a multiplicative genetic model. Overall there was no significant difference in haplotype frequencies between cases and controls; however, the prevalence of the most common haplotype (ATGC) was significantly higher among cases (38.7%) compared to controls (33.5%) (haplotype-specific P=0.009). Evaluation of the prostate cancer risk associated with carrying the ‘ATGC' haplotype revealed that homozygous carriers were at significantly increased risk (odds ratio (OR)=1.6, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.2–2.2), compared to noncarriers, while no significant association was found among subjects heterozygous for the haplotype (OR=1.0, 95% CI=0.8–1.2). Restricting analyses to advanced prostate cancer strengthened the association between the ‘ATGC' haplotype and disease risk (OR for homozygous carriers vs noncarriers 1.8, 95% CI=1.3–2.5). In conclusion, the results from this study support the hypothesis that inflammation has a role of in the development of prostate cancer, but further studies are needed to identify the causal variants in this region and to elucidate the biological mechanism for this association

Co-morbidity and drug treatment in Alzheimer's disease. A cross sectional study of participants in the Dementia Study in Northern Norway

Inappropriate medical treatment of co-morbidities in Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is an increasing concern in geriatric medicine. The objective of this study was to compare current drug use related to co-morbidity between individuals with a recent diagnosis of AD and a cognitively healthy control group in a population based clinical trial in Northern Norway. Setting: Nine rural municipalities with 70 000 inhabitants in Northern Norway. Participants: Participants with and without AD recruited in general practice and by population based screening. 187 participants with a recent diagnosis of AD were recruited among community dwellers. Of 791 respondents without cognitive symptoms, 500 were randomly selected and invited to further clinical and cognitive testing. The final control group consisted of 200 cognitively healthy individuals from the same municipalities. Demographic characteristics, data on medical history and current medication were included, and a physical and cognitive examination was performed. The statistical analyses were carried out by independent sample t-test, chi-square, ANCOVA and logistic regression. A co-morbidity score was significantly higher in AD participants compared to controls. The mean number of drugs was higher for AD participants compared to controls (5.1 ± 3.6 and 2.9 ± 2.4 respectively, p < 0.001 age and gender adjusted), also when adjusted for co-morbidity. AD participants used significantly more anticholinergic, sedative and antidepressant drugs. For nursing home residents with AD the mean number of drugs was significantly higher compared to AD participants living at home (6.9 ± 3.9 and 4.5 ± 3.3, respectively, p < 0.001). AD participants were treated with a significantly higher number of drugs as compared to cognitively healthy controls, even after adjustment for co-morbidity. An inappropriate use of anticholinergic and sedative drugs was identified, especially among nursing home residents with AD. The drug burden and the increased risk of adverse reactions among individuals suffering from AD need more attention from prescribing doctors

Potency analysis of cellular therapies: the emerging role of molecular assays

Potency testing is an important part of the evaluation of cellular therapy products. Potency assays are quantitative measures of a product-specific biological activity that is linked to a relevant biological property and, ideally, a product's in vivo mechanism of action. Both in vivo and in vitro assays can be used for potency testing. Since there is often a limited period of time between the completion of production and the release from the laboratory for administration to the patient, in vitro assays such are flow cytometry, ELISA, and cytotoxicity are typically used. Better potency assays are needed to assess the complex and multiple functions of cellular therapy products, some of which are not well understood. Gene expression profiling using microarray technology has been widely and effectively used to assess changes of cells in response to stimuli and to classify cancers. Preliminary studies have shown that the expression of noncoding microRNA which play an important role in cellular development, differentiation, metabolism and signal transduction can distinguish different types of stem cells and leukocytes. Both gene and microRNA expression profiling have the potential to be important tools for testing the potency of cellular therapies. Potency testing, the complexities associated with potency testing of cellular therapies, and the potential role of gene and microRNA expression microarrays in potency testing of cellular therapies is discussed