Beyond ‘significance’:Principles and practice of the analysis of credibility

The inferential inadequacies of statistical significance testing are now widely recognized. There is, however, no consensus on how to move research into a ‘post p < 0.05’ era. We present a potential route forward via the Analysis of Credibility, a novel methodology that allows researchers to go beyond the simplistic dichotomy of significance testing and extract more insight from new findings. Using standard summary statistics, AnCred assesses the credibility of significant and non-significant findings on the basis of their evidential weight, and in the context of existing knowledge. The outcome is expressed in quantitative terms of direct relevance to the substantive research question, providing greater protection against misinterpretation. Worked examples are given to illustrate how AnCred extracts additional insight from the outcome of typical research study designs. Its ability to cast light on the use of p-values, the interpretation of non-significant findings and the so-called ‘replication crisis’ is also discussed

Overexpression of antibiotic resistance genes in hospital effluents over time

$\textbf{Objectives}$: Effluents contain a diverse abundance of antibiotic resistance genes that augment the resistome of receiving aquatic environments. However, uncertainty remains regarding their temporal persistence, transcription and response to anthropogenic factors, such as antibiotic usage. We present a spatiotemporal study within a river catchment (River Cam, UK) that aims to determine the contribution of antibiotic resistance gene-containing effluents originating from sites of varying antibiotic usage to the receiving environment. $\textbf{Methods}$: Gene abundance in effluents (municipal hospital and dairy farm) was compared against background samples of the receiving aquatic environment (i.e. the catchment source) to determine the resistome contribution of effluents. We used metagenomics and metatranscriptomics to correlate DNA and RNA abundance and identified differentially regulated gene transcripts. $\textbf{Results}$: We found that mean antibiotic resistance gene and transcript abundances were correlated for both hospital (ρ=0.9, two-tailed $\textit{P}$<0.0001) and farm (ρ=0.5, two-tailed $\textit{P}$<0.0001) effluents and that two β-lactam resistance genes ($\textit{bla}$GES and $\textit{bla}$OXA) were overexpressed in all hospital effluent samples. High β-lactam resistance gene transcript abundance was related to hospital antibiotic usage over time and hospital effluents contained antibiotic residues. $\textbf{Conclusions}$: We conclude that effluents contribute high levels of antibiotic resistance genes to the aquatic environment; these genes are expressed at significant levels and are possibly related to the level of antibiotic usage at the effluent source.This research was funded by the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council, GlaxoSmithKline and the Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science

Interpretation of evidence in data by untrained medical students: a scenario-based study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>To determine which approach to assessment of evidence in data - statistical tests or likelihood ratios - comes closest to the interpretation of evidence by untrained medical students.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Empirical study of medical students (N = 842), untrained in statistical inference or in the interpretation of diagnostic tests. They were asked to interpret a hypothetical diagnostic test, presented in four versions that differed in the distributions of test scores in diseased and non-diseased populations. Each student received only one version. The intuitive application of the statistical test approach would lead to rejecting the null hypothesis of no disease in version A, and to accepting the null in version B. Application of the likelihood ratio approach led to opposite conclusions - against the disease in A, and in favour of disease in B. Version C tested the importance of the p-value (A: 0.04 versus C: 0.08) and version D the importance of the likelihood ratio (C: 1/4 versus D: 1/8).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In version A, 7.5% concluded that the result was in favour of disease (compatible with p value), 43.6% ruled against the disease (compatible with likelihood ratio), and 48.9% were undecided. In version B, 69.0% were in favour of disease (compatible with likelihood ratio), 4.5% against (compatible with p value), and 26.5% undecided. Increasing the p value from 0.04 to 0.08 did not change the results. The change in the likelihood ratio from 1/4 to 1/8 increased the proportion of non-committed responses.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Most untrained medical students appear to interpret evidence from data in a manner that is compatible with the use of likelihood ratios.</p

Malaria protection due to sickle haemoglobin depends on parasite genotype

Host genetic factors can confer resistance against malaria1, raising the question of whether this has led to evolutionary adaptation of parasite populations. Here we searched for association between candidate host and parasite genetic variants in 3,346 Gambian and Kenyan children with severe malaria caused by Plasmodium falciparum. We identified a strong association between sickle haemoglobin (HbS) in the host and three regions of the parasite genome, which is not explained by population structure or other covariates, and which is replicated in additional samples. The HbS-associated alleles include nonsynonymous variants in the gene for the acyl-CoA synthetase family member2-4 PfACS8 on chromosome 2, in a second region of chromosome 2, and in a region containing structural variation on chromosome 11. The alleles are in strong linkage disequilibrium and have frequencies that covary with the frequency of HbS across populations, in particular being much more common in Africa than other parts of the world. The estimated protective effect of HbS against severe malaria, as determined by comparison of cases with population controls, varies greatly according to the parasite genotype at these three loci. These findings open up a new avenue of enquiry into the biological and epidemiological significance of the HbS-associated polymorphisms in the parasite genome and the evolutionary forces that have led to their high frequency and strong linkage disequilibrium in African P. falciparum populations

Winnowing DNA for Rare Sequences: Highly Specific Sequence and Methylation Based Enrichment

Rare mutations in cell populations are known to be hallmarks of many diseases and cancers. Similarly, differential DNA methylation patterns arise in rare cell populations with diagnostic potential such as fetal cells circulating in maternal blood. Unfortunately, the frequency of alleles with diagnostic potential, relative to wild-type background sequence, is often well below the frequency of errors in currently available methods for sequence analysis, including very high throughput DNA sequencing. We demonstrate a DNA preparation and purification method that through non-linear electrophoretic separation in media containing oligonucleotide probes, achieves 10,000 fold enrichment of target DNA with single nucleotide specificity, and 100 fold enrichment of unmodified methylated DNA differing from the background by the methylation of a single cytosine residue

Recent and historical recombination in the admixed Norwegian Red cattle breed

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Comparison of recent patterns of recombination derived from linkage maps to historical patterns of recombination from linkage disequilibrium (LD) could help identify genomic regions affected by strong artificial selection, appearing as reduced recent recombination. Norwegian Red cattle (NRF) make an interesting case study for investigating these patterns as it is an admixed breed with an extensively recorded pedigree. NRF have been under strong artificial selection for traits such as milk and meat production, fertility and health.</p> <p>While measures of LD is also crucial for determining the number of markers required for association mapping studies, estimates of recombination rate can be used to assess quality of genomic assemblies.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A dataset containing more than 17,000 genome-wide distributed SNPs and 2600 animals was used to assess recombination rates and LD in NRF. Although low LD measured by r²was observed in NRF relative to some of the breeds from which this breed originates, reports from breeds other than those assessed in this study have described more rapid decline in r²at short distances than what was found in NRF. Rate of decline in r²for NRF suggested that to obtain an expected r²between markers and a causal polymorphism of at least 0.5 for genome-wide association studies, approximately one SNP every 15 kb or a total of 200,000 SNPs would be required. For well known quantitative trait loci (QTLs) for milk production traits on <it>Bos Taurus </it>chromosomes 1, 6 and 20, map length based on historic recombination was greater than map length based on recent recombination in NRF.</p> <p>Further, positions for 130 previously unpositioned contigs from assembly of the bovine genome sequence (Btau_4.0) found using comparative sequence analysis were validated by linkage analysis, and 28% of these positions corresponded to extreme values of population recombination rate.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>While LD is reduced in NRF compared to some of the breeds from which this admixed breed originated, it is elevated over short distances compared to some other cattle breeds. Genomic regions in NRF where map length based on historic recombination was greater than map length based on recent recombination coincided with some well known QTL regions for milk production traits.</p> <p>Linkage analysis in combination with comparative sequence analysis and detection of regions with extreme values of population recombination rate proved to be valuable for detecting problematic regions in the Btau_4.0 genome assembly.</p

A Bayesian Outlier Criterion to Detect SNPs under Selection in Large Data Sets

Background: The recent advent of high-throughput SNP genotyping technologies has opened new avenues of research for population genetics. In particular, a growing interest in the identification of footprints of selection, based on genome scans for adaptive differentiation, has emerged.[br/] Methodology/Principal Findings: The purpose of this study is to develop an efficient model-based approach to perform Bayesian exploratory analyses for adaptive differentiation in very large SNP data sets. The basic idea is to start with a very simple model for neutral loci that is easy to implement under a Bayesian framework and to identify selected loci as outliers via Posterior Predictive P-values (PPP-values). Applications of this strategy are considered using two different statistical models. The first one was initially interpreted in the context of populations evolving respectively under pure genetic drift from a common ancestral population while the second one relies on populations under migration-drift equilibrium. Robustness and power of the two resulting Bayesian model-based approaches to detect SNP under selection are further evaluated through extensive simulations. An application to a cattle data set is also provided.[br/] Conclusions/Significance: The procedure described turns out to be much faster than former Bayesian approaches and also reasonably efficient especially to detect loci under positive selection

Massively Parallel Haplotyping on Microscopic Beads for the High-Throughput Phase Analysis of Single Molecules

In spite of the many advances in haplotyping methods, it is still very difficult to characterize rare haplotypes in tissues and different environmental samples or to accurately assess the haplotype diversity in large mixtures. This would require a haplotyping method capable of analyzing the phase of single molecules with an unprecedented throughput. Here we describe such a haplotyping method capable of analyzing in parallel hundreds of thousands single molecules in one experiment. In this method, multiple PCR reactions amplify different polymorphic regions of a single DNA molecule on a magnetic bead compartmentalized in an emulsion drop. The allelic states of the amplified polymorphisms are identified with fluorescently labeled probes that are then decoded from images taken of the arrayed beads by a microscope. This method can evaluate the phase of up to 3 polymorphisms separated by up to 5 kilobases in hundreds of thousands single molecules. We tested the sensitivity of the method by measuring the number of mutant haplotypes synthesized by four different commercially available enzymes: Phusion, Platinum Taq, Titanium Taq, and Phire. The digital nature of the method makes it highly sensitive to detecting haplotype ratios of less than 1∶10,000. We also accurately quantified chimera formation during the exponential phase of PCR by different DNA polymerases

The quest for the solar g modes

Solar gravity modes (or g modes) -- oscillations of the solar interior for which buoyancy acts as the restoring force -- have the potential to provide unprecedented inference on the structure and dynamics of the solar core, inference that is not possible with the well observed acoustic modes (or p modes). The high amplitude of the g-mode eigenfunctions in the core and the evanesence of the modes in the convection zone make the modes particularly sensitive to the physical and dynamical conditions in the core. Owing to the existence of the convection zone, the g modes have very low amplitudes at photospheric levels, which makes the modes extremely hard to detect. In this paper, we review the current state of play regarding attempts to detect g modes. We review the theory of g modes, including theoretical estimation of the g-mode frequencies, amplitudes and damping rates. Then we go on to discuss the techniques that have been used to try to detect g modes. We review results in the literature, and finish by looking to the future, and the potential advances that can be made -- from both data and data-analysis perspectives -- to give unambiguous detections of individual g modes. The review ends by concluding that, at the time of writing, there is indeed a consensus amongst the authors that there is currently no undisputed detection of solar g modes.Comment: 71 pages, 18 figures, accepted by Astronomy and Astrophysics Revie

Quantitative Analysis of Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms within Copy Number Variation

BACKGROUND: Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) have been used extensively in genetics and epidemiology studies. Traditionally, SNPs that did not pass the Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (HWE) test were excluded from these analyses. Many investigators have addressed possible causes for departure from HWE, including genotyping errors, population admixture and segmental duplication. Recent large-scale surveys have revealed abundant structural variations in the human genome, including copy number variations (CNVs). This suggests that a significant number of SNPs must be within these regions, which may cause deviation from HWE. RESULTS: We performed a Bayesian analysis on the potential effect of copy number variation, segmental duplication and genotyping errors on the behavior of SNPs. Our results suggest that copy number variation is a major factor of HWE violation for SNPs with a small minor allele frequency, when the sample size is large and the genotyping error rate is 0~1%. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides the posterior probability that a SNP falls in a CNV or a segmental duplication, given the observed allele frequency of the SNP, sample size and the significance level of HWE testing