Suicide attempts in clinical trials with paroxetine randomised against placebo

BACKGROUND: Inclusion of unpublished data on the effects of antidepressants on children has suggested unfavourable risk-benefit profiles for some of the drugs. Recent meta-analyses of studies on adults have indicated similar effects. We obtained unpublished data for paroxetine that have so far not been included in these analyses. METHODS: The documentation for drug registration contained 16 studies in which paroxetine had been randomised against placebo. We registered the number of suicides, suicide attempts and ideation. We corrected for duration of medication and placebo treatment and used a standard Bayesian statistical approach with varying priors. RESULTS: There were 7 suicide attempts in patients on the drug and 1 in a patient on placebo. We found that the probability of increased intensity of suicide attempts per year in adults taking paroxetine was 0.90 with a "pessimistic" prior, and somewhat less with two more neutral priors. CONCLUSION: Our findings support the results of recent meta-analyses. Patients and doctors should be warned that the increased suicidal activity observed in children and adolescents taking certain antidepressant drugs may also be present in adults

Self-poisoning in rural Sri Lanka: small-area variations in incidence

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Self-poisoning is one of the most common methods of suicide worldwide. The intentional ingestion of pesticides is the main contributor to such deaths and in many parts of rural Asia pesticide self-poisoning is a major public health problem. To inform the development of preventive measures in these settings, this study investigates small-area variation in self-poisoning incidence and its association with area-based socioeconomic and agricultural factors.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Ecological analysis of intentional self-poisoning in a rural area (population 267,613) of Sri Lanka in 2002. The geographic distribution of cases was mapped to place of residence. Using administrative division (GN), median population size 1416, as unit of analysis, associations with socioeconomic and agricultural indicators were explored using negative binomial regression models.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The overall incidence of intentional self-poisoning in the study area was 315 per 100,000 (range: 0 – 2168 per 100,000 across GNs). Socioeconomic disadvantage, as indexed by poor housing quality (p = 0.003) and low levels of education (p < 0.001) but not unemployment (p = 0.147), was associated with a low self-poisoning incidence. Areas where a high proportion of the population worked in agriculture had low overall levels of self-poisoning (p = 0.002), but a greater proportion of episodes in these areas involved pesticides (p = 0.01). An association with extent of cultivated land was found only for non-pesticide poisoning (p = 0.01).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Considerable small-area variation in incidence rates of intentional self-poisoning was found. The noteworthy concentration of cases in certain areas and the inverse association with socioeconomic deprivation merit attention and should be investigated using individual-level exposure data.</p

Impact of socioeconomic deprivation on rate and cause of death in severe mental illness

Background: Socioeconomic status has important associations with disease-specific mortality in the general population. Although individuals with Severe Mental Illnesses (SMI) experience significant premature mortality, the relationship between socioeconomic status and mortality in this group remains under investigated.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; Aims: To assess the impact of socioeconomic status on rate and cause of death in individuals with SMI (schizophrenia and bipolar disorder) relative to the local (Glasgow) and wider (Scottish) populations.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; Methods: Cause and age of death during 2006-2010 inclusive for individuals with schizophrenia or bipolar disorder registered on the Glasgow Psychosis Clinical Information System (PsyCIS) were obtained by linkage to the Scottish General Register Office (GRO). Rate and cause of death by socioeconomic status, measured by Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD), were compared to the Glasgow and Scottish populations.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; Results: Death rates were higher in people with SMI across all socioeconomic quintiles compared to the Glasgow and Scottish populations, and persisted when suicide was excluded. Differences were largest in the most deprived quintile (794.6 per 10,000 population vs. 274.7 and 252.4 for Glasgow and Scotland respectively). Cause of death varied by socioeconomic status. For those living in the most deprived quintile, higher drug-related deaths occurred in those with SMI compared to local Glasgow and wider Scottish population rates (12.3% vs. 5.9%, p = &#60;0.001 and 5.1% p = 0.002 respectively). A lower proportion of deaths due to cancer in those with SMI living in the most deprived quintile were also observed, relative to the local Glasgow and wider Scottish populations (12.3% vs. 25.1% p = 0.013 and 26.3% p = &#60;0.001). The proportion of suicides was significantly higher in those with SMI living in the more affluent quintiles relative to Glasgow and Scotland (54.6% vs. 5.8%, p = &#60;0.001 and 5.5%, p = &#60;0.001). Discussion and conclusions: Excess mortality in those with SMI occurred across all socioeconomic quintiles compared to the Glasgow and Scottish populations but was most marked in the most deprived quintiles when suicide was excluded as a cause of death. Further work assessing the impact of socioeconomic status on specific causes of premature mortality in SMI is needed

Simpson's Paradox, Lord's Paradox, and Suppression Effects are the same phenomenon – the reversal paradox

This article discusses three statistical paradoxes that pervade epidemiological research: Simpson's paradox, Lord's paradox, and suppression. These paradoxes have important implications for the interpretation of evidence from observational studies. This article uses hypothetical scenarios to illustrate how the three paradoxes are different manifestations of one phenomenon – the reversal paradox – depending on whether the outcome and explanatory variables are categorical, continuous or a combination of both; this renders the issues and remedies for any one to be similar for all three. Although the three statistical paradoxes occur in different types of variables, they share the same characteristic: the association between two variables can be reversed, diminished, or enhanced when another variable is statistically controlled for. Understanding the concepts and theory behind these paradoxes provides insights into some controversial or contradictory research findings. These paradoxes show that prior knowledge and underlying causal theory play an important role in the statistical modelling of epidemiological data, where incorrect use of statistical models might produce consistent, replicable, yet erroneous results

A Method for Determining Skeletal Lengths from DXA Images

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Skeletal ratios and bone lengths are widely used in anthropology and forensic pathology and hip axis length is a useful predictor of fracture. The aim of this study was to show that skeletal ratios, such as length of femur to height, could be accurately measured from a DXA (dual energy X-ray absorptiometry) image.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>90 normal Caucasian females, 18–80 years old, with whole body DXA data were used as subjects. Two methods, linear pixel count (LPC) and reticule and ruler (RET) were used to measure skeletal sizes on DXA images and compared with real clinical measures from 20 subjects and 20 x-rays of the femur and tibia taken in 2003.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Although both methods were highly correlated, the LPC inter- and intra-observer error was lower at 1.6% compared to that of RET at 2.3%. Both methods correlated positively with real clinical measures, with LPC having a marginally stronger correlation coefficient (r²= 0.94; r²= 0.84; average r²= 0.89) than RET (r²= 0.86; r²= 0.84; average r²= 0.85) with X-rays and real measures respectively. Also, the time taken to use LPC was half that of RET at 5 minutes per scan.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Skeletal ratios can be accurately and precisely measured from DXA total body scan images. The LPC method is easy to use and relatively rapid. This new phenotype will be useful for osteoporosis research for individuals or large-scale epidemiological or genetic studies.</p

Do Mismatches between Pre- and Post-Natal Environments Influence Adult Physiological Functioning?

Purpose: Mismatches between pre- and post-natal environments have implications for disease in adulthood. However, less is known about how this mismatch can affect physiological systems more generally, especially at younger ages. We hypothesised that mismatches between pre- and post-natal environments, as measured by the measures of birthweight and adult leg length, would be associated with poorer biomarker levels across five key physiological systems in young adults. Methods: Data were collected from 923, 36 year-old respondents from the West of Scotland Twenty-07 Study. The biomarkers were: systolic blood pressure (sBP); forced expiratory volume (FEV1); glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c); glomerular filtration rate (eGFR); and gamma- glutamyltransferase (GGT). These biomarkers were regressed against pre-natal conditions (birthweight), post-natal conditions (leg length) and the interaction between pre- and post-natal measures. Sex, childhood socioeconomic position and adult lifestyle characteristics were adjusted for as potential effect modifiers and confounders, respectively. Results: There were no associations between birthweight and leg length and sBP, FEV1, HbA1c, or GGT. Higher birthweight and longer leg length were associated with better kidney function (eGFR). However, there was no evidence for mismatches between birthweight and leg length to be associated with worse sBP, FEV1, HbA1c, eGFR or GGT levels (P>0.05). Conclusions: Our hypothesis that early signs of physiological damage would be present in young adults given mismatches in childhood environments, as measured by growth markers, was not proven. This lack of association could be because age 36 is too young to identify significant trends for future health, or the associations simply not being present. © 2014 Robertson, Benzeval

Body size in early life and risk of epithelial ovarian cancer: results from the Nurses' Health Studies

Adult body mass index (BMI) has been associated with ovarian cancer risk, but few studies have examined body size earlier in life. We prospectively examined associations of body fatness at ages 5 and 10, BMI at age 18, height, and birthweight with risk of epithelial ovarian cancer in the Nurses' Health Study (NHS: 110 311 women, 735 cases) and Nurses' Health Study II (NHSII: 113 059 women, 137 cases). Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). There was a weak inverse association between average body fatness at ages 5 and 10 and risk in the NHS (RR for heaviest vs most lean=0.81, 95% CI: 0.53–1.24, P for trend=0.04) and a nonsignificant positive association in the NHSII (RR=2.09, 95% CI: 0.98–4.48, P for trend=0.10), possibly due to differences in age and menopausal status. Height was positively associated with risk in both cohorts (RR for ⩾1.75 vs <1.6 m=1.43, 95% CI: 1.05–1.96, P for trend=0.001). Body mass index at the age of 18 years and birthweight were not associated with risk. Further research should examine the biological mechanisms underlying the observed associations

Hospital admissions and deaths relating to deliberate self-harm and accidents within 5 years of a cancer diagnosis: a national study in Scotland, UK

The risk of suicide in cancer patients has been reported as elevated in several countries. These patients are exposed to many medicines that may confuse or provide a means for harm, potentially also increasing their risk from accidents. Ratios of observed/expected numbers of hospital admission and death events relating to deliberate self-harm (DSH) and accidents were calculated in the 5 years from a cancer diagnosis in Scotland 1981–1995, compared to the matched general population. The relative risk (RR) of suicide was 1.51 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.29–1.76). The RR of hospital admissions for DSH was not significantly increased, suggesting a strong suicidal intent in DSH acts in cancer patients. Accidental poisonings and all other accidents were both increased (RR death=3.69, 95% CI: 2.10–6.00; and 1.58, 95% CI: 1.48–1.69, respectively) (RR hospital admissions=1.32, 95% CI: 1.19–1.47; and 1.55, 95% CI: 1.53–1.57, respectively). The association of only certain tumour types (e.g. respiratory) with suicide and accidental poisoning, and a broad range of tumour types with an elevated risk of all other accidents, suggests accidental poisoning categories may be a common destination for code shifting of some DSH events. A previous history of DSH or accidents, significantly increased the RR of suicide or fatal accidents, respectively (RR suicide=14.86 (95% CI: 4.69–34.97) vs 1.16 (95% CI: 0.84–1.55)) (RR accidental death=3.37 (95% CI: 2.53–4.41) vs 1.29 (95% CI: 1.12–1.49)). Within 5 years of a cancer diagnosis, Scottish patients are at increased RR of suicide and fatal accidents, and increased RR of hospital admissions for accidents. Some of these accidents, particularly accidental poisonings, may contain hidden deliberate acts. Previous DSH or accidents are potential markers for those most at risk, in whom to target interventional techniques