An effective approach based on reliability methods for high-dimensional Bayesian model updating of dynamical nonlinear structures

Abstract Bayesian model updating represents a sound formulation to incorporate the unavoidable uncertainties arising in the system identification of infrastructure assets. However, the treatment of cases involving a relatively large number of model parameters remains an open issue, especially for dynamic nonlinear structural models. In this context, an effective implementation of subset simulation is considered within the framework of Bayesian model updating with structural reliability methods (BUS). For improved numerical efficiency, a substructure coupling technique for dynamic analysis is implemented to develop a reduced-order model strategy. To assess the capabilities of the proposed method, an application example that considers a three-dimensional bridge model equipped with nonlinear devices is presented.</jats:p

Expression of eicosanoid receptors subtypes and eosinophilic inflammation: implication on chronic rhinosinusitis

BACKGROUND: Eicosanoid receptors are G-protein-coupled receptors playing an important immunomodulatory role in airway diseases. However, there is little information on the expression of these receptors and their link with eosinophilic inflammation in paranasal sinus diseases. We aimed with this study to investigate the tissue expression of leukotrienes and prostaglandin E2 receptors in chronic rhinosinusitis patients and the link of this regulation with eosinophilic inflammation. METHODS: Samples were prepared from nasal tissue of patients with chronic rhinosinusitis without nasal polyps (CRS, n = 11), with nasal polyps (CRS-NP, n = 13) and healthy subjects (Controls, n = 6). mRNA expression of CysLT(1), CysLT(2), BLT(1), BLT(2), E-prostanoid receptors (EP(1), EP(2), EP(3), EP(4)) and sol-IL-5Rα was determined by real-time PCR. Concentrations of PGE2, LTC4/D4/E4, LTB4 and sol-IL-5Rα were determined by ELISA and of ECP by ImmunoCap. Protein expression and tissue localization of eicosanoid receptors and activated eosinophils were evaluated by immunohistochemistry. RESULTS: CysLT(1 )mRNA expression was significantly increased in CRS-NP compared to CRS and controls, and CRS compared to controls, whereas CysLT(2 )mRNA was enhanced in both CRS groups without differences between them. Levels of both receptors correlated to the number of activated eosinophils, sol-IL-5Rα, ECP and LTC(4)/D(4)/E(4 )concentrations in the disease groups. PGE(2 )protein concentrations and prostanoid receptors EP(1 )and EP(3 )were down-regulated in the CRS-NP tissue vs. CRS and controls, whereas EP(2 )and EP(4 )expression was enhanced in CRS and CRS-NP patients vs. controls. No differences in BLT receptors were observed between patients and controls. CONCLUSION: CyLTs receptors are up-regulated in nasal polyp tissue and their expression correlate with eosinophilic inflammation supporting previous results. Eicosanoid receptors mRNA pattern observed suggests that down-regulation of EP(1 )and EP(3 )in CRS-NP and up-regulation EP(2 )and EP(4 )in CRS and CRS-NP groups may have some role in the development of the diseases and their regulation may not be directly linked to eosinophil activation but involve post-transcriptional events mainly related to other inflammatory cell sources

Population density, water supply, and the risk of dengue fever in Vietnam: cohort study and spatial analysis.

BACKGROUND: Aedes aegypti, the major vector of dengue viruses, often breeds in water storage containers used by households without tap water supply, and occurs in high numbers even in dense urban areas. We analysed the interaction between human population density and lack of tap water as a cause of dengue fever outbreaks with the aim of identifying geographic areas at highest risk. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted an individual-level cohort study in a population of 75,000 geo-referenced households in Vietnam over the course of two epidemics, on the basis of dengue hospital admissions (n = 3,013). We applied space-time scan statistics and mathematical models to confirm the findings. We identified a surprisingly narrow range of critical human population densities between around 3,000 to 7,000 people/km² prone to dengue outbreaks. In the study area, this population density was typical of villages and some peri-urban areas. Scan statistics showed that areas with a high population density or adequate water supply did not experience severe outbreaks. The risk of dengue was higher in rural than in urban areas, largely explained by lack of piped water supply, and in human population densities more often falling within the critical range. Mathematical modeling suggests that simple assumptions regarding area-level vector/host ratios may explain the occurrence of outbreaks. CONCLUSIONS: Rural areas may contribute at least as much to the dissemination of dengue fever as cities. Improving water supply and vector control in areas with a human population density critical for dengue transmission could increase the efficiency of control efforts. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary

N=1 extension of minimal model holography

The CFT dual of the higher spin theory with minimal N = 1 spectrum is determined. Unlike previous examples of minimal model holography, there is no free parameter beyond the central charge, and the CFT can be described in terms of a non-diagonal modular invariant of the bosonic theory at the special value of the 't Hooft parameter lambda=1/2. As evidence in favour of the duality we show that the symmetry algebras as well as the partition functions agree between the two descriptions.Comment: 28 page

Numerical simulation of blood flow and pressure drop in the pulmonary arterial and venous circulation

A novel multiscale mathematical and computational model of the pulmonary circulation is presented and used to analyse both arterial and venous pressure and flow. This work is a major advance over previous studies by Olufsen et al. (Ann Biomed Eng 28:1281–1299, 2012) which only considered the arterial circulation. For the first three generations of vessels within the pulmonary circulation, geometry is specified from patient-specific measurements obtained using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Blood flow and pressure in the larger arteries and veins are predicted using a nonlinear, cross-sectional-area-averaged system of equations for a Newtonian fluid in an elastic tube. Inflow into the main pulmonary artery is obtained from MRI measurements, while pressure entering the left atrium from the main pulmonary vein is kept constant at the normal mean value of 2 mmHg. Each terminal vessel in the network of ‘large’ arteries is connected to its corresponding terminal vein via a network of vessels representing the vascular bed of smaller arteries and veins. We develop and implement an algorithm to calculate the admittance of each vascular bed, using bifurcating structured trees and recursion. The structured-tree models take into account the geometry and material properties of the ‘smaller’ arteries and veins of radii ≥ 50 μ m. We study the effects on flow and pressure associated with three classes of pulmonary hypertension expressed via stiffening of larger and smaller vessels, and vascular rarefaction. The results of simulating these pathological conditions are in agreement with clinical observations, showing that the model has potential for assisting with diagnosis and treatment for circulatory diseases within the lung

Dengue fever epidemic potential as projected by general circulation models of global climate change.

Climate factors influence the transmission of dengue fever, the world's most widespread vector-borne virus. We examined the potential added risk posed by global climate change on dengue transmission using computer-based simulation analysis to link temperature output from three climate general circulation models (GCMs) to a dengue vectorial capacity equation. Our outcome measure, epidemic potential, is the reciprocal of the critical mosquito density threshold of the vectorial capacity equation. An increase in epidemic potential indicates that a smaller number of mosquitoes can maintain a state of endemicity of disease where dengue virus is introduced. Baseline climate data for comparison are from 1931 to 1980. Among the three GCMs, the average projected temperature elevation was 1.16 degrees C, expected by the year 2050. All three GCMs projected a temperature-related increase in potential seasonal transmission in five selected cities, as well as an increase in global epidemic potential, with the largest area change occurring in temperate regions. For regions already at risk, the aggregate epidemic potential across the three scenarios rose on average between 31 and 47% (range, 24-74%). If climate change occurs, as many climatologists believe, this will increase the epidemic potential of dengue-carrying mosquitoes, given viral introduction and susceptible human populations. Our risk assessment suggests that increased incidence may first occur in regions bordering endemic zones in latitude or altitude. Endemic locations may be at higher risk from hemorrhagic dengue if transmission intensity increases

Stress related epigenetic changes may explain opportunistic success in biological invasions in Antipode mussels

Different environmental factors could induce epigenetic changes, which are likely involved in the biological invasion process. Some of these factors are driven by humans as, for example, the pollution and deliberate or accidental introductions and others are due to natural conditions such as salinity. In this study, we have analysed the relationship between different stress factors: time in the new location, pollution and salinity with the methylation changes that could be involved in the invasive species tolerance to new environments. For this purpose, we have analysed two different mussels’ species, reciprocally introduced in antipode areas: the Mediterranean blue mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis and the New Zealand pygmy mussel Xenostrobus securis, widely recognized invaders outside their native distribution ranges. The demetylathion was higher in more stressed population, supporting the idea of epigenetic is involved in plasticity process. These results can open a new management protocols, using the epigenetic signals as potential pollution monitoring tool. We could use these epigenetic marks to recognise the invasive status in a population and determine potential biopollutants

Paternal obesity is associated with IGF2 hypomethylation in newborns: results from a Newborn Epigenetics Study (NEST) cohort

Data from epidemiological and animal model studies suggest that nutrition during pregnancy may affect the health status of subsequent generations. These transgenerational effects are now being explained by disruptions at the level of the epigenetic machinery. Besides in vitro environmental exposures, the possible impact on the reprogramming of methylation profiles at imprinted genes at a much earlier time point, such as during spermatogenesis or oogenesis, has not previously been considered. In this study, our aim was to determine associations between preconceptional obesity and DNA methylation profiles in the offspring, particularly at the differentially methylated regions (DMRs) of the imprinted Insulin-like Growth Factor 2 (IGF2) gene

Parity-related molecular signatures and breast cancer subtypes by estrogen receptor status.

INTRODUCTION:Relationships of parity with breast cancer risk are complex. Parity is associated with decreased risk of postmenopausal hormone receptor-positive breast tumors, but may increase risk for basal-like breast cancers and early-onset tumors. Characterizing parity-related gene expression patterns in normal breast and breast tumor tissues may improve understanding of the biological mechanisms underlying this complex pattern of risk. METHODS:We developed a parity signature by analyzing microRNA microarray data from 130 reduction mammoplasty (RM) patients (54 nulliparous and 76 parous). This parity signature, together with published parity signatures, was evaluated in gene expression data from 150 paired tumors and adjacent benign breast tissues from the Polish Breast Cancer Study, both overall and by tumor estrogen receptor (ER) status. RESULTS:We identified 251 genes significantly upregulated by parity status in RM patients (parous versus nulliparous; false discovery rate = 0.008), including genes in immune, inflammation and wound response pathways. This parity signature was significantly enriched in normal and tumor tissues of parous breast cancer patients, specifically in ER-positive tumors. CONCLUSIONS:Our data corroborate epidemiologic data, suggesting that the etiology and pathogenesis of breast cancers vary by ER status, which may have implications for developing prevention strategies for these tumors

Factors affecting study efficiency and item non-response in health surveys in developing countries: the Jamaica national healthy lifestyle survey

BACKGROUND: Health surveys provide important information on the burden and secular trends of risk factors and disease. Several factors including survey and item non-response can affect data quality. There are few reports on efficiency, validity and the impact of item non-response, from developing countries. This report examines factors associated with item non-response and study efficiency in a national health survey in a developing Caribbean island. METHODS: A national sample of participants aged 15–74 years was selected in a multi-stage sampling design accounting for 4 health regions and 14 parishes using enumeration districts as primary sampling units. Means and proportions of the variables of interest were compared between various categories. Non-response was defined as failure to provide an analyzable response. Linear and logistic regression models accounting for sample design and post-stratification weighting were used to identify independent correlates of recruitment efficiency and item non-response. RESULTS: We recruited 2012 15–74 year-olds (66.2% females) at a response rate of 87.6% with significant variation between regions (80.9% to 97.6%; p < 0.0001). Females outnumbered males in all parishes. The majority of subjects were recruited in a single visit, 39.1% required multiple visits varying significantly by region (27.0% to 49.8% [p < 0.0001]). Average interview time was 44.3 minutes with no variation between health regions, urban-rural residence, educational level, gender and SES; but increased significantly with older age category from 42.9 minutes in the youngest to 46.0 minutes in the oldest age category. Between 15.8% and 26.8% of persons did not provide responses for the number of sexual partners in the last year. Women and urban residents provided less data than their counterparts. Highest item non-response related to income at 30% with no gender difference but independently related to educational level, employment status, age group and health region. Characteristics of non-responders vary with types of questions. CONCLUSION: Informative health surveys are possible in developing countries. While survey response rates may be satisfactory, item non-response was high in respect of income and sexual practice. In contrast to developed countries, non-response to questions on income is higher and has different correlates. These findings can inform future surveys