D-optimal orthogonal array minus t run designs

© 2018, © 2018 Grace Scientific Publishing, LLC. This article considers the design performance of orthogonal arrays in which one or more runs are missing at random. We focus on orthogonal arrays of index unity and on the 18 run ternary arrays

Risk factors associated with Rift Valley fever epidemics in South Africa in 2008–11

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a zoonotic and vector-borne disease, mainly present in Africa, which represents a threat to human health, animal health and production. South Africa has experienced three major RVF epidemics (1950–51, 1973–75 and 2008–11). Due to data scarcity, no previous study has quantified risk factors associated with RVF epidemics in animals in South Africa. Using the 2008–11 epidemic datasets, a retrospective longitudinal study was conducted to identify and quantify spatial and temporal environmental factors associated with RVF incidence. Cox regressions with a Besag model to account for the spatial effects were fitted to the data. Coefficients were estimated by Bayesian inference using integrated nested Laplace approximation. An increase in vegetation density was the most important risk factor until 2010. In 2010, increased temperature was the major risk factor. In 2011, after the large 2010 epidemic wave, these associations were reversed, potentially confounded by immunity in animals, probably resulting from earlier infection and vaccination. Both vegetation density and temperature should be considered together in the development of risk management strategies. However, the crucial need for improved access to data on population at risk, animal movements and vaccine use is highlighted to improve model predictions

Fluctuations in granular gases

A driven granular material, e.g. a vibrated box full of sand, is a stationary system which may be very far from equilibrium. The standard equilibrium statistical mechanics is therefore inadequate to describe fluctuations in such a system. Here we present numerical and analytical results concerning energy and injected power fluctuations. In the first part we explain how the study of the probability density function (pdf) of the fluctuations of total energy is related to the characterization of velocity correlations. Two different regimes are addressed: the gas driven at the boundaries and the homogeneously driven gas. In a granular gas, due to non-Gaussianity of the velocity pdf or lack of homogeneity in hydrodynamics profiles, even in the absence of velocity correlations, the fluctuations of total energy are non-trivial and may lead to erroneous conclusions about the role of correlations. In the second part of the chapter we take into consideration the fluctuations of injected power in driven granular gas models. Recently, real and numerical experiments have been interpreted as evidence that the fluctuations of power injection seem to satisfy the Gallavotti-Cohen Fluctuation Relation. We will discuss an alternative interpretation of such results which invalidates the Gallavotti-Cohen symmetry. Moreover, starting from the Liouville equation and using techniques from large deviation theory, the general validity of a Fluctuation Relation for power injection in driven granular gases is questioned. Finally a functional is defined using the Lebowitz-Spohn approach for Markov processes applied to the linear inelastic Boltzmann equation relevant to describe the motion of a tracer particle. Such a functional results to be different from injected power and to satisfy a Fluctuation Relation.Comment: 40 pages, 18 figure

Wave attenuation at a salt marsh margin: A case study of an exposed coast on the Yangtze estuary

To quantify wave attenuation by (introduced) Spartina alterniflora vegetation at an exposed macrotidal coast in the Yangtze Estuary, China, wave parameters and water depth were measured during 13 consecutive tides at nine locations ranging from 10 m seaward to 50 m landward of the low marsh edge. During this period, the incident wave height ranged from <0.1 to 1.5 m, the maximum of which is much higher than observed in other marsh areas around the world. Our measurements and calculations showed that the wave attenuation rate per unit distance was 1 to 2 magnitudes higher over the marsh than over an adjacent mudflat. Although the elevation gradient of the marsh margin was significantly higher than that of the adjacent mudflat, more than 80% of wave attenuation was ascribed to the presence of vegetation, suggesting that shoaling effects were of minor importance. On average, waves reaching the marsh were eliminated over a distance of similar to 80 m, although a marsh distance of >= 100 m was needed before the maximum height waves were fully attenuated during high tides. These attenuation distances were longer than those previously found in American salt marshes, mainly due to the macrotidal and exposed conditions at the present site. The ratio of water depth to plant height showed an inverse correlation with wave attenuation rate, indicating that plant height is a crucial factor determining the efficiency of wave attenuation. Consequently, the tall shoots of the introduced S. alterniflora makes this species much more efficient at attenuating waves than the shorter, native pioneer species in the Yangtze Estuary, and should therefore be considered as a factor in coastal management during the present era of sea-level rise and global change. We also found that wave attenuation across the salt marsh can be predicted using published models when a suitable coefficient is incorporated to account for drag, which varies in place and time due to differences in plant characteristics and abiotic conditions (i.e., bed gradient, initial water depth, and wave action).

Quantum theory's last challenge

Quantum mechanics is now 100 years old and still going strong. Combining general relativity with quantum mechanics is the last hurdle to be overcome in the "quantum revolution".Comment: (9 pages, LaTex) This is the preprint version of an article that appeared in the issue 6813 (volume 408) of Nature, as part of a 3-article celebration of the 100th anniversary of Planck's solution of the black-body-radiation proble

A magic leap in tourism: Intended and realized experience of head-mounted augmented reality in a museum context

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from SAGE Publications via the DOI in this record Data Availability Statement: The data that support the findings of this study are openly available from the OSF at https://osf.io/BT3UV/.Augmented reality (AR) is an emergent technology in tourism. However, research concerning the AR user experience is relatively scarce and seldom addresses the intentions of designers. Accordingly, we sought to: (a) explore the design intentions underlying a multi-user, purpose-built AR experience; (b) assess the extent to which users’ realized experience aligned with the designers’ intended experience; and (c) examine the relationships between users’ internal states and their associated behavior, in alignment with a Stimulus-Organism-Response framework. In Study 1, designers (n = 5) took part in a focus group and completed a design intentions survey. In Study 2, users (n = 48) tested the AR experience, and a range of subjective (e.g., affective responses) and objective (i.e., visual attention) data were recorded. Findings indicated designer–user disparities primarily at the organism and response levels. Additionally, users’ affective responses to the AR experience were strongly associated with visitor engagement.Innovate U

TOPOLOGICAL DEFECTS AND HIGHEST ENERGY COSMIC AND GAMMA RAYS

In this paper we review the hypothesis that a considerable part of the cosmic ray flux observed above about 10^{19}\eV may be produced by decaying or annihilating topological defects left over from phase transitions in the early universe at grand unification energy scales (\approx10^{16}\GeV). Possible signatures of cosmic ray producing defect models are discussed which could be tested experimentally in the near future. We thereby focus on model independent universal spectral properties of the predicted particle fluxes.Comment: 11 pages of uuencoded compressed postscript, including 3 figures, to be published in Space Science Reviews

The Curious Adventure of the Ultrahigh Energy Cosmic Rays

These lectures discuss the mysteries involving the production and extragalactic propagation of ultrahigh energy cosmic rays and suggested possible solutions.Comment: Lectures given at the D. Chalonge Euroschool, Erice, Italy, November 2000, 25 pages, 7 ps figs., expanded revision with color fig.

Prospective study evaluating the relative sensitivity of 18F-NaF PET/CT for detecting skeletal metastases from renal cell carcinoma in comparison to multidetector CT and 99mTc-MDP bone scintigraphy, using an adaptive trial design.

BACKGROUND: The detection of occult bone metastases is a key factor in determining the management of patients with renal cell carcinoma (RCC), especially when curative surgery is considered. This prospective study assessed the sensitivity of (18)F-labelled sodium fluoride in conjunction with positron emission tomography/computed tomography ((18)F-NaF PET/CT) for detecting RCC bone metastases, compared with conventional imaging by bone scintigraphy or CT. PATIENTS AND METHODS: An adaptive two-stage trial design was utilized, which was stopped after the first stage due to statistical efficacy. Ten patients with stage IV RCC and bone metastases were imaged with (18)F-NaF PET/CT and (99m)Tc-labelled methylene diphosphonate ((99m)Tc-MDP) bone scintigraphy including pelvic single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT). Images were reported independently by experienced radiologists and nuclear medicine physicians using a 5-point scoring system. RESULTS: Seventy-seven lesions were diagnosed as malignant: 100% were identified by (18)F-NaF PET/CT, 46% by CT and 29% by bone scintigraphy/SPECT. Standard-of-care imaging with CT and bone scintigraphy identified 65% of the metastases reported by (18)F-NaF PET/CT. On an individual patient basis, (18)F-NaF PET/CT detected more RCC metastases than (99m)Tc-MDP bone scintigraphy/SPECT or CT alone (P = 0.007). The metabolic volumes, mean and maximum standardized uptake values (SUV mean and SUV max) of the malignant lesions were significantly greater than those of the benign lesions (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: (18)F-NaF PET/CT is significantly more sensitive at detecting RCC skeletal metastases than conventional bone scintigraphy or CT. The detection of occult bone metastases could greatly alter patient management, particularly in the context when standard-of-care imaging is negative for skeletal metastases.This work was supported by Cancer Research UK [grant number C19212/A16628]. The authors also received research support from the National Institute of Health Research Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council Imaging Centre in Cambridge and Manchester, and the Cambridge Experimental Cancer Medicine Centre. The research has also been partly funded by a generous donation from the family and friends of a patient.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Oxford University Press via http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/annonc/mdv28