A differential algebra based importance sampling method for impact probability computation on Earth resonant returns of Near Earth Objects

A differential algebra based importance sampling method for uncertainty propagation and impact probability computation on the first resonant returns of Near Earth Objects is presented in this paper. Starting from the results of an orbit determination process, we use a differential algebra based automatic domain pruning to estimate resonances and automatically propagate in time the regions of the initial uncertainty set that include the resonant return of interest. The result is a list of polynomial state vectors, each mapping specific regions of the uncertainty set from the observation epoch to the resonant return. Then, we employ a Monte Carlo importance sampling technique on the generated subsets for impact probability computation. We assess the performance of the proposed approach on the case of asteroid (99942) Apophis. A sensitivity analysis on the main parameters of the technique is carried out, providing guidelines for their selection. We finally compare the results of the proposed method to standard and advanced orbital sampling techniques

Collision avoidance maneuver design based on multi-objective optimization

The possibility of having collision between a satellite and a space debris or another satellite is becoming frequent. The amount of propellant is directly related to a satellite’s operational lifetime and revenue. Thus, collision avoidance maneuvers should be performed in the most efficient and effective manner possible. In this work the problem is formulated as a multi-objective optimization. The first objective is the Δv, whereas the second and third one are the collision probability and relative distance between the satellite and the threatening object in a given time window after the maneuver. This is to take into account that multiple conjunctions might occur in the short-term. This is particularly true for the GEO regime, where close conjunction between a pair of object can occur approximately every 12h for a few days. Thus, a CAM can in principle reduce the collision probability for one event, but significantly increase it for others. Another objective function is then added to manage mission constraint. To evaluate the objective function, the TLE are propagated with SGP4/SDP4 to the current time of the maneuver, then the Δv is applied. This allow to compute the corresponding “modified” TLE after the maneuver and identify (in a given time window after the CAM) all the relative minima of the squared distance between the spacecraft and the approaching object, by solving a global optimization problem rigorously by means of the verified global optimizer COSY-GO. Finally the collision probability for the sieved encounters can be computed. A Multi-Objective Particle Swarm Optimizer is used to compute the set of Pareto optimal solutions.The method has been applied to two test cases, one that considers a conjunction in GEO and another in LEO. Results show that, in particular for the GEO case, considering all the possible conjunctions after one week of the execution of a CAM can prevent the occurrence of new close encounters in the short-term

Dealing with uncertainties in angles-only initial orbit determination

A method to deal with uncertainties in initial orbit determination (IOD) is presented. This is based on the use of Taylor differential algebra (DA) to nonlinearly map uncertainties from the observation space to the state space. When a minimum set of observations is available, DA is used to expand the solution of the IOD problem in Taylor series with respect to measurement errors. When more observations are available, high order inversion tools are exploited to obtain full state pseudo-observations at a common epoch. The mean and covariance of these pseudo-observations are nonlinearly computed by evaluating the expectation of high order Taylor polynomials. Finally, a linear scheme is employed to update the current knowledge of the orbit. Angles-only observations are considered and simplified Keplerian dynamics adopted to ease the explanation. Three test cases of orbit determination of artificial satellites in different orbital regimes are presented to discuss the feature and performances of the proposed methodology

Nonlinear representation of the confidence region of orbits determined on short arcs

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Nonlinear Uncertainty Propagation in Astrodynamics Using Differential Algebra and Graphics Processing Units

In this paper, two numerical methods for nonlinear uncertainty propagation in astrodynamics are presented and thoroughly compared. Both methods are based on the Monte Carlo idea of evaluating multiple samples of an initial statistical distribution around the nominal state. However, whereas the graphics processing unit implementation aims at increasing the performances of the classical Monte Carlo approach exploiting the massively parallel architecture of modern general-purpose computing on graphics processing units, the method based on differential algebra is aimed at the improvement and generalization of standard linear methods for uncertainty propagation. The two proposed numerical methods are applied to test cases considering both simple two-body dynamics and a full n-body dynamics with accurate ephemeris. The results of the propagation are thoroughly compared with particular emphasis on both accuracy and computational performances

Analytical framework for space debris collision avoidance maneuver design

An analytical formulation for collision avoidance maneuvers involving a spacecraft and a space debris is presented, including solutions for the maximum deviation and minimum collision probability cases. Gauss' planetary equations and relative motion equations are used to map maneuvers at a given time to displacements at the predicted close approach. The model is then extended to map changes in state between two times, allowing one to propagate covariance matrices. The analytical formulation reduces the optimization problem to an eigenproblem, both for maximum deviation and minimum collision probability. Two maximum deviation cases, total deviation and impact parameter, are compared for a large set of spacecraft-debris conjunction geometries derived from European Space Agency's Meteoroid and Space Debris Terrestrial Environment Reference (MASTER-2009) model. Moreover, the maximum impact parameter and minimum collision probability maneuvers are compared assuming covariances known at the maneuver time, to evaluate the net effect of lead time in collision probability. In all cases, solutions are analyzed in the b-plane to leverage its natural separation of phasing and geometry change effects. Both uncertainties and maximum deviation grow along the time axis for long lead times, limiting the reduction in collision probability.Comment: 44 pages, 24 figures. Author's accepted manuscript for a paper published in Journal of Guidance, Control, and Dynamic

Impact probability computation of Near-Earth Objects using Monte Carlo Line Sampling and Subset Simulation

This work introduces two Monte Carlo (MC)-based sampling methods, known as line sampling and subset simulation, to improve the performance of standard MC analyses in the context of asteroid impact risk assessment. Both techniques sample the initial uncertainty region in different ways, with the result of either providing a more accurate estimate of the impact probability or reducing the number of required samples during the simulation with respect to standard MC techniques. The two methods are first described and then applied to some test cases, providing evidence of the increased accuracy or the reduced computational burden with respect to a standard MC simulation. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is carried out to show how parameter setting affects the accuracy of the results and the numerical efficiency of the two methods