The Stepwise Reduction of Multiyear Sea Ice Area in the Arctic Ocean Since 1980

The loss of multiyear sea ice (MYI) in the Arctic Ocean is a significant change that affects all facets of the Arctic environment. Using a Lagrangian ice age product, we examine MYI loss and quantify the annual MYI area budget from 1980 to 2021 as the balance of export, melt, and replenishment. Overall, MYI area declined at 72,500 km2/yr; however, a majority of the loss occurred during two stepwise reductions that interrupt an otherwise balanced budget and resulted in the northward contraction of the MYI pack. First, in 1989, a change in atmospheric forcing led to a +56% anomaly in MYI export through Fram Strait. The second occurred from 2006 to 2008 with anomalously high melt (+25%) and export (+23%) coupled with low replenishment (−8%). In terms of trends, melt has increased since 1989, particularly in the Beaufort Sea, export has decreased since 2008 due to reduced MYI coverage north of Fram Strait, and replenishment has increased over the full time series due to a negative feedback that promotes seasonal ice survival at higher latitudes exposed by MYI loss. However, retention of older MYI has significantly declined, transitioning the MYI pack toward younger MYI that is less resilient than previously anticipated and could soon elicit another stepwise reduction. We speculate that future MYI loss will be driven by increased melt and reduced replenishment, both of which are enhanced with continued warming and will one day render the Arctic Ocean free of MYI, a change that will coincide with a seasonally ice‐free Arctic Ocean

Thermographic imaging in sports and exercise medicine: A Delphi study and consensus statement on the measurement of human skin temperature

This is an accepted manuscript of an article published by Elsevier in Journal of Thermal Biology on 18/07/2017, available online: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtherbio.2017.07.006 The accepted version of the publication may differ from the final published version.© 2017 Elsevier Ltd The importance of using infrared thermography (IRT) to assess skin temperature (tsk) is increasing in clinical settings. Recently, its use has been increasing in sports and exercise medicine; however, no consensus guideline exists to address the methods for collecting data in such situations. The aim of this study was to develop a checklist for the collection of tsk using IRT in sports and exercise medicine. We carried out a Delphi study to set a checklist based on consensus agreement from leading experts in the field. Panelists (n  =  24) representing the areas of sport science (n = 8; 33%), physiology (n = 7; 29%), physiotherapy (n = 3; 13%) and medicine (n = 6; 25%), from 13 different countries completed the Delphi process. An initial list of 16 points was proposed which was rated and commented on by panelists in three rounds of anonymous surveys following a standard Delphi procedure. The panel reached consensus on 15 items which encompassed the participants’ demographic information, camera/room or environment setup and recording/analysis of tsk using IRT. The results of the Delphi produced the checklist entitled “Thermographic Imaging in Sports and Exercise Medicine (TISEM)” which is a proposal to standardize the collection and analysis of tsk data using IRT. It is intended that the TISEM can also be applied to evaluate bias in thermographic studies and to guide practitioners in the use of this technique.Published versio

Things change: Women’s and men’s marital disruption dynamics in Italy during a time of social transformations, 1970-2003

We study women’s and men’s marital disruption in Italy between 1970 and 2003. By applying an event-history analysis to the 2003 Italian variant of the Generations and Gender Survey we found that the spread of marital disruption started among middle-highly educated women. Then in recent years it appears that less educated women have also been able to dissolve their unhappy unions. Overall we can see the beginning of a reversed educational gradient from positive to negative. In contrast the trend in men’s marital disruption risk appears as a change over time common to all educational groups, although with persisting educational differentials.determinants, educational differences, event history analysis, gender difference, Italy, marital disruption

The in- or exclusion of non-breast cancer related death and contralateral breast cancer significantly affects estimated outcome probability in early breast cancer

A wide variation of definitions of recurrent disease and survival are used in the analyses of outcome of patients with early breast cancer. Explicit definitions with details both on endpoints and censoring are provided in less than half of published studies. We evaluated the effects of various definitions of survival and recurrent disease on estimated outcome in a prospectively determined cohort of 463 patients with primary breast cancer. Outcome estimates were determined both by the Kaplan–Meier and a competing risk method. In- or exclusion of contralateral breast cancer or non-disease related death in the definition of recurrent disease or survival significantly affects estimated outcome probability. The magnitude of this finding was dependent on patient-, tumour-, and treatment characteristics. Knowledge of the contribution of non-disease related death or contralateral breast cancer to estimated recurrent disease rate and overall death rate is indispensable for a correct interpretation and comparison of outcome analyses