The role of expertise in dynamic risk assessment: A reflection of the problem-solving strategies used by experienced fireground commanders

Although the concept of dynamic risk assessment has in recent times become more topical in the training manuals of most high risk domains, only a few empirical studies have reported how experts actually carry out this crucial task. The knowledge gap between research and practice in this area therefore calls for more empirical investigation within the naturalistic environment. In this paper, we present and discuss the problem solving strategies employed by sixteen experienced operational firefighters using a qualitative knowledge elicitation tool — the critical decision method. Findings revealed that dynamic risk assessment is not merely a process of weighing the risks of a proposed course of action against its benefits, but rather an experiential and pattern recognition process. The paper concludes by discussing the implications of designing training curriculum for the less experienced officers using the elicited expert knowledge

Estimates of probable dementia prevalence from population-based surveys compared with dementia prevalence estimates based on meta-analyses

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>National data on dementia prevalence are not always available, yet it may be possible to obtain estimates from large surveys that include dementia screening instruments. In Australia, many of the dementia prevalence estimates are based on European data collected between 15 and 50 years ago. We derived population-based estimates of probable dementia and possible cognitive impairment in Australian studies using the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), and compared these to estimates of dementia prevalence from meta-analyses of European studies.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data sources included a pooled dataset of Australian longitudinal studies (DYNOPTA), and two Australian Bureau of Statistics National Surveys of Mental Health and Wellbeing. National rates of probable dementia (MMSE < 24) and possible cognitive impairment (24-26) were estimated using combined sample weights.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Estimates of probable dementia were higher in surveys than in meta-analyses for ages 65-84, but were similar at ages 85 and older. Surveys used weights to account for sample bias, but no adjustments were made in meta-analyses. Results from DYNOPTA and meta-analyses had a very similar pattern of increase with age. Contrary to trends from some meta-analyses, rates of probable dementia were not higher among women in the Australian surveys. Lower education was associated with higher prevalence of probable dementia. Data from investigator-led longitudinal studies designed to assess cognitive decline appeared more reliable than government health surveys.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This study shows that estimates of probable dementia based on MMSE in studies where cognitive decline and dementia are a focus, are a useful adjunct to clinical studies of dementia prevalence. Such information and may be used to inform projections of dementia prevalence and the concomitant burden of disease.</p

Supplementation of Male Pheromone on Rock Substrates Attracts Female Rock Lizards to the Territories of Males: A Field Experiment

Background: Many animals produce elaborated sexual signals to attract mates, among them are common chemical sexual signals (pheromones) with an attracting function. Lizards produce chemical secretions for scent marking that may have a role in sexual selection. In the laboratory, female rock lizards (Iberolacerta cyreni) prefer the scent of males with more ergosterol in their femoral secretions. However, it is not known whether the scent-marks of male rock lizards may actually attract females to male territories in the field. Methodology/Principal Findings: In the field, we added ergosterol to rocks inside the territories of male lizards, and found that this manipulation resulted in increased relative densities of females in these territories. Furthermore, a higher number of females were observed associated to males in manipulated plots, which probably increased mating opportunities for males in these areas. Conclusions/Significance: These and previous laboratory results suggest that female rock lizards may select to settle in home ranges based on the characteristics of scent-marks from conspecific males. Therefore, male rock lizards might attract more females and obtain more matings by increasing the proportion of ergosterol when scent-marking their territories. However, previous studies suggest that the allocation of ergosterol to secretions may be costly and only high quality male

Genome-wide and Ordered-Subset linkage analyses provide support for autism loci on 17q and 19p with evidence of phenotypic and interlocus genetic correlates

BACKGROUND: Autism is a neurobehavioral spectrum of phenotypes characterized by deficits in the development of language and social relationships and patterns of repetitive, rigid and compulsive behaviors. Twin and family studies point to a significant genetic etiology, and several groups have performed genomic linkage screens to identify susceptibility loci. METHODS: We performed a genome-wide linkage screen in 158 combined Tufts, Vanderbilt and AGRE (Autism Genetics Research Exchange) multiplex autism families using parametric and nonparametric methods with a categorical autism diagnosis to identify loci of main effect. Hypothesizing interdependence of genetic risk factors prompted us to perform exploratory studies applying the Ordered-Subset Analysis (OSA) approach using LOD scores as the trait covariate for ranking families. We employed OSA to test for interlocus correlations between loci with LOD scores ≥1.5, and empirically determined significance of linkage in optimal OSA subsets using permutation testing. Exploring phenotypic correlates as the basis for linkage increases involved comparison of mean scores for quantitative trait-based subsets of autism between optimal subsets and the remaining families. RESULTS: A genome-wide screen for autism loci identified the best evidence for linkage to 17q11.2 and 19p13, with maximum multipoint heterogeneity LOD scores of 2.9 and 2.6, respectively. Suggestive linkage (LOD scores ≥1.5) at other loci included 3p, 6q, 7q, 12p, and 16p. OSA revealed positive correlations of linkage between the 19p locus and 17q, between 19p and 6q, and between 7q and 5p. While potential phenotypic correlates for these findings were not identified for the chromosome 7/5 combination, differences indicating more rapid achievement of "developmental milestones" was apparent in the chromosome 19 OSA-defined subsets for 17q and 6q. OSA was used to test the hypothesis that 19p linkage involved more rapid achievement of these milestones and it revealed significantly increased LOD* scores at 19p13. CONCLUSIONS: Our results further support 19p13 as harboring an autism susceptibility locus, confirm other linkage findings at 17q11.2, and demonstrate the need to analyze more discreet trait-based subsets of complex phenotypes to improve ability to detect genetic effects

An Expanded Set of Amino Acid Analogs for the Ribosomal Translation of Unnatural Peptides

BACKGROUND: The application of in vitro translation to the synthesis of unnatural peptides may allow the production of extremely large libraries of highly modified peptides, which are a potential source of lead compounds in the search for new pharmaceutical agents. The specificity of the translation apparatus, however, limits the diversity of unnatural amino acids that can be incorporated into peptides by ribosomal translation. We have previously shown that over 90 unnatural amino acids can be enzymatically loaded onto tRNA. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We have now used a competition assay to assess the efficiency of tRNA-aminoacylation of these analogs. We have also used a series of peptide translation assays to measure the efficiency with which these analogs are incorporated into peptides. The translation apparatus tolerates most side chain derivatives, a few alpha,alpha disubstituted, N-methyl and alpha-hydroxy derivatives, but no beta-amino acids. We show that over 50 unnatural amino acids can be incorporated into peptides by ribosomal translation. Using a set of analogs that are efficiently charged and translated we were able to prepare individual peptides containing up to 13 different unnatural amino acids. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results demonstrate that a diverse array of unnatural building blocks can be translationally incorporated into peptides. These building blocks provide new opportunities for in vitro selections with highly modified drug-like peptides

Post-disaster social recovery: disaster governance lessons learnt from Tropical Cyclone Yasi

Post-disaster social recovery remains the least understood of the disaster phases despite increased risks of extreme events leading to disasters due to climate change. This paper contributes to advance this knowledge by focusing on the disaster recovery process of the Australian coastal town of Cardwell which was affected by category 4/5 Tropical Cyclone Yasi in 2011. Drawing on empirical data collected through semi-structured interviews with Cardwell residents post-Yasi, it examines issues related to social recovery in the first year of the disaster and 2 years later. Key findings discuss the role played by community members, volunteers and state actors in Cardwell’s post-disaster social recovery, especially with respect to how current disaster risk management trends based on self-reliance and shared responsibility unfolded in the recovery phase. Lessons learnt concerning disaster recovery governance are then extracted to inform policy implementation for disaster risk management to support social recovery and enhance disaster resilience in the light of climate change

Women’s conception of the menopausal transition – a qualitative study

Aim: To explore, with a qualitative approach, whether the conception of menopause varies between women seeking medical advice due to climacteric symptoms and, if so, to describe these different conceptions. Background: For many women, the menopausal transition is a troublesome period of life, often associated with decreased well-being and a number of symptoms. Besides the hormonal changes, many other factors such as psychological, sociological and lifestyle factors affect how women perceive their menopause. Method: Semi-structured interviews were held with 20 women after their first-time visits at outpatient clinics of gynaecology for discussion of climacteric symptoms. The interviews were audio-taped, transcribed and analysed using a phenomenographic approach. Results: A wide variation of conceptions was revealed. Two main categories were identified including different physical changes with varying symptoms and both positive and negative psychological changes. The menopausal transition was also described as a natural process and as a developmental phase of life. Conclusion and relevance to clinical practice: Women’s conceptions of the menopausal transition were individual and contained both physical and psychological symptoms but also expressed a more holistic view of the menopausal transition. The transition was described as a natural process affected by endocrine and life-style factors as well as by the psychosocial situation and by aging per se. It is important that health care providers are aware of women’s conceptions about the menopausal transition to be able to communicate optimally, support and empower middle-aged women in different health care situations and thereby optimise the result of care.The definitive version is available at www.blackwell-synergy.com: Lotta Lindh-Åstrand, Mikael Hoffmann, Mats Hammar and Karin I Kjellgren, Women’s conception of the menopausal transition – a qualitative study, 2007, Journal of Clinical Nursing, (16), 3, 509-517. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2702.2005.01547.x. Copyright: Blackwell Publishing www.blackwell-synergy.co