Clinical benefit in Phase-I trials of novel molecularly targeted agents: does dose matter?

Phase-I trials traditionally involve dose-escalation to determine the maximal tolerated dose (MTD). With conventional chemotherapy, efficacy is generally deemed to be dose-dependent, but the same may not be applicable to molecularly targeted agents (MTAs). We analysed consecutive patients included in Phase-I trials at the Royal Marsden Hospital from 5 January 2005 to 6 June 2006. We considered only trials of monotherapy MTAs in which the MTD was defined. Three patient cohorts (A, B, and C) were identified according to the dose received as a percentage of the final trial MTD (0–33%, 34–65%, >66%). Potential efficacy was assessed using the non-progression rate (NPR), that is, complete/partial response or stable disease for at least 3 months by RECIST. A total of 135 patients having progressive disease before enrolment were analysed from 15 eligible trials. Median age was 57 years (20–86); male : female ratio was 1.8 : 1. Cohort A, B, and C included 28 (21%), 22 (16%), and 85 (63%) patients; NPR at 3 and 6 months was 21% and 11% (A), 50% and 27% (B), 31% and 14% (C), respectively, P=0.9. Median duration of non-progression (17 weeks; 95% CI=13–22) was not correlated with the MTD level, P=0.9. Our analysis suggests that the potential for clinical benefit is not confined to patients treated at doses close to the MTD in Phase-I trials of MTAs

Predicting Bison Migration out of Yellowstone National Park Using Bayesian Models

Long distance migrations by ungulate species often surpass the boundaries of preservation areas where conflicts with various publics lead to management actions that can threaten populations. We chose the partially migratory bison (Bison bison) population in Yellowstone National Park as an example of integrating science into management policies to better conserve migratory ungulates. Approximately 60% of these bison have been exposed to bovine brucellosis and thousands of migrants exiting the park boundary have been culled during the past two decades to reduce the risk of disease transmission to cattle. Data were assimilated using models representing competing hypotheses of bison migration during 1990–2009 in a hierarchal Bayesian framework. Migration differed at the scale of herds, but a single unifying logistic model was useful for predicting migrations by both herds. Migration beyond the northern park boundary was affected by herd size, accumulated snow water equivalent, and aboveground dried biomass. Migration beyond the western park boundary was less influenced by these predictors and process model performance suggested an important control on recent migrations was excluded. Simulations of migrations over the next decade suggest that allowing increased numbers of bison beyond park boundaries during severe climate conditions may be the only means of avoiding episodic, large-scale reductions to the Yellowstone bison population in the foreseeable future. This research is an example of how long distance migration dynamics can be incorporated into improved management policies

Sample size considerations for trials using cerebral white matter hyperintensity progression as an intermediate outcome at 1 year after mild stroke: Results of a prospective cohort study

Background: White matter hyperintensities (WMHs) are commonly seen on in brain imaging and are associated with stroke and cognitive decline. Therefore, they may provide a relevant intermediate outcome in clinical trials. WMH can be measured as a volume or visually on the Fazekas scale. We investigated predictors of WMH progression and design of efficient studies using WMH volume and Fazekas score as an intermediate outcome. Methods: We prospectively recruited 264 patients with mild ischaemic stroke and measured WMH volume, Fazekas score, age and cardiovascular risk factors at baseline and 1 year. We modelled predictors of WMH burden at 1 year and used the results in sample size calculations for hypothetical randomised controlled trials with different analysis plans and lengths of follow-up. Results: Follow-up WMH volume was predicted by baseline WMH: a 0.73-ml (95% CI 0.65-0.80, p < 0.0001) increase per 1-ml baseline volume increment, and a 2.93-ml increase (95% CI 1.76-4.10, p < 0.0001) per point on the Fazekas scale. Using a mean difference of 1 ml in WMH volume between treatment groups, 80% power and 5% alpha, adjusting for all predictors and 2-year follow-up produced the smallest sample size (n = 642). Other study designs produced samples sizes from 2054 to 21,270. Sample size calculations using Fazekas score as an outcome with the same power and alpha, as well as an OR corresponding to a 1-ml difference, were sensitive to assumptions and ranged from 2504 to 18,886. Conclusions: Baseline WMH volume and Fazekas score predicted follow-up WMH volume. Study size was smallest using volumes and longer-term follow-up, but this must be balanced against resources required to measure volumes versus Fazekas scores, bias due to dropout and scanner drift. Samples sizes based on Fazekas scores may be best estimated with simulation studies

Cell-to-cell variability in troponin I phosphorylation in a porcine model of pacing-induced heart failure

We tested the hypothesis that myocardial contractile protein phosphorylation and the Ca2+ sensitivity of force production are dysregulated in a porcine model of pacing-induced heart failure (HF). The level of protein kinase A (PKA)-dependent cardiac troponin I (TnI) phosphorylation was lower in the myocardium surrounding the pacing electrode (pacing site) of the failing left ventricle (LV) than in the controls. Immunohistochemical assays of the LV pacing site pointed to isolated clusters of cardiomyocytes exhibiting a reduced level of phosphorylated TnI. Flow cytometry on isolated and permeabilized cardiomyocytes revealed a significantly larger cell-to-cell variation in the level of TnI phosphorylation of the LV pacing site than in the opposite region in HF or in either region in the controls: the interquartile range (IQR) on the distribution histogram of relative TnI phosphorylation was wider at the pacing site (IQR = 0.53) than that at the remote site of HF (IQR = 0.42; P = 0.0047) or that of the free wall of the control animals (IQR = 0.36; P = 0.0093). Additionally, the Ca2+ sensitivities of isometric force production were higher and appeared to be more variable in single permeabilized cardiomyocytes from the HF pacing site than in the healthy myocardium. In conclusion, the level of PKA-dependent TnI phosphorylation and the Ca2+ sensitivity of force production exhibited a high cell-to-cell variability at the LV pacing site, possibly explaining the abnormalities of the regional myocardial contractile function in a porcine model of pacing-induced HF

Amniotic fluid deficiency and congenital abnormalities both influence fluctuating asymmetry in developing limbs of human deceased fetuses

Fluctuating asymmetry (FA), as an indirect measure of developmental instability (DI), has been intensively studied for associations with stress and fitness. Patterns, however, appear heterogeneous and the underlying causes remain largely unknown. One aspect that has received relatively little attention in the literature is the consequence of direct mechanical effects on asymmetries. The crucial prerequisite for FA to reflect DI is that environmental conditions on both sides should be identical. This condition may be violated during early human development if amniotic fluid volume is deficient, as the resulting mechanical pressures may increase asymmetries. Indeed, we showed that limb bones of deceased human fetuses exhibited increased asymmetry, when there was not sufficient amniotic fluid (and, thus, space) in the uterine cavity. As amniotic fluid deficiency is known to cause substantial asymmetries and abnormal limb development, these subtle asymmetries are probably at least in part caused by the mechanical pressures. On the other hand, deficiencies in amniotic fluid volume are known to be associated with other congenital abnormalities that may disturb DI. More specifically, urogenital abnormalities can directly affect/reduce amniotic fluid volume. We disentangled the direct mechanical effects on FA from the indirect effects of urogenital abnormalities, the latter presumably representing DI. We discovered that both factors contributed significantly to the increase in FA. However, the direct mechanical effect of uterine pressure, albeit statistically significant, appeared less important than the effects of urogenital abnormalities, with an effect size only two-third as large. We, thus, conclude that correcting for the relevant direct factors allowed for a representative test of the association between DI and stress, and confirmed that fetuses form a suitable model system to increase our understanding in patterns of FA and symmetry development.Research Fund of the University of Antwerp, mobility grant from the Research Foundation – Flanders (FWO)

A comparison of the Accuracy of Ultrasound and Computed Tomography in common diagnoses causing acute abdominal pain

Head-to-head comparison of ultrasound and CT accuracy in common diagnoses causing acute abdominal pain. Consecutive patients with abdominal pain for > 2 h and <5 days referred for imaging underwent both US and CT by different radiologists/radiological residents. An expert panel assigned a final diagnosis. Ultrasound and CT sensitivity and predictive values were calculated for frequent final diagnoses. Effect of patient characteristics and observer experience on ultrasound sensitivity was studied. Frequent final diagnoses in the 1,021 patients (mean age 47; 55% female) were appendicitis (284; 28%), diverticulitis (118; 12%) and cholecystitis (52; 5%). The sensitivity of CT in detecting appendicitis and diverticulitis was significantly higher than that of ultrasound: 94% versus 76% (p <0.01) and 81% versus 61% (p = 0.048), respectively. For cholecystitis, the sensitivity of both was 73% (p = 1.00). Positive predictive values did not differ significantly between ultrasound and CT for these conditions. Ultrasound sensitivity in detecting appendicitis and diverticulitis was not significantly negatively affected by patient characteristics or reader experience. CT misses fewer cases than ultrasound, but both ultrasound and CT can reliably detect common diagnoses causing acute abdominal pain. Ultrasound sensitivity was largely not influenced by patient characteristics and reader experience

KRAS-mutation status in relation to colorectal cancer survival: the joint impact of correlated tumour markers.

Background:Mutations in the Kirsten Ras (KRAS) oncogene are common in colorectal cancer (CRC). The role of KRAS-mutation status as a prognostic factor, however, is unclear. We evaluated the relationship between KRAS-mutation status and CRC survival, considering heterogeneity in this association by tumour and patient characteristics.Methods:The population-based study included individuals diagnosed with CRC between 1998-2007 in Western Washington State. Tumour specimens were tested for KRAS exon 2 mutations, the BRAF p.V600E mutation, and microsatellite instability (MSI). We used Cox regression to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association between KRAS-mutation status and disease-specific and overall survival. Stratified analyses were conducted by age, sex, tumour site, stage, and MSI. We conducted additional analyses combining KRAS-mutation, BRAF-mutation, and MSI status.Results:Among 1989 cases, 31% had KRAS-mutated CRC. Kirsten Ras (KRAS)-mutated CRC was associated with poorer disease-specific survival (HR=1.37, 95% CI: 1.13-1.66). This association was not evident in cases who presented with distant-stage CRC. Cases with KRAS-wild-type/BRAF-wild-type/MSI-high CRC had the most favourable prognosis; those with CRC exhibiting a KRAS- or BRAF-mutation and no MSI had the poorest prognosis. Patterns were similar for overall survival.Conclusion:Kirsten Ras (KRAS)-mutated CRC was associated with statistically significantly poorer survival after diagnosis than KRAS-wild-type CRC