Network theory may explain the vulnerability of medieval human settlements to the Black Death pandemic

Epidemics can spread across large regions becoming pandemics by flowing along transportation and social networks. Two network attributes, transitivity (when a node is connected to two other nodes that are also directly connected between them) and centrality (the number and intensity of connections with the other nodes in the network), are widely associated with the dynamics of transmission of pathogens. Here we investigate how network centrality and transitivity influence vulnerability to diseases of human populations by examining one of the most devastating pandemic in human history, the fourteenth century plague pandemic called Black Death. We found that, after controlling for the city spatial location and the disease arrival time, cities with higher values of both centrality and transitivity were more severely affected by the plague. A simulation study indicates that this association was due to central cities with high transitivity undergo more exogenous re-infections. Our study provides an easy method to identify hotspots in epidemic networks. Focusing our effort in those vulnerable nodes may save time and resources by improving our ability of controlling deadly epidemics

A Detailed History of Intron-rich Eukaryotic Ancestors Inferred from a Global Survey of 100 Complete Genomes

Protein-coding genes in eukaryotes are interrupted by introns, but intron densities widely differ between eukaryotic lineages. Vertebrates, some invertebrates and green plants have intron-rich genes, with 6–7 introns per kilobase of coding sequence, whereas most of the other eukaryotes have intron-poor genes. We reconstructed the history of intron gain and loss using a probabilistic Markov model (Markov Chain Monte Carlo, MCMC) on 245 orthologous genes from 99 genomes representing the three of the five supergroups of eukaryotes for which multiple genome sequences are available. Intron-rich ancestors are confidently reconstructed for each major group, with 53 to 74% of the human intron density inferred with 95% confidence for the Last Eukaryotic Common Ancestor (LECA). The results of the MCMC reconstruction are compared with the reconstructions obtained using Maximum Likelihood (ML) and Dollo parsimony methods. An excellent agreement between the MCMC and ML inferences is demonstrated whereas Dollo parsimony introduces a noticeable bias in the estimations, typically yielding lower ancestral intron densities than MCMC and ML. Evolution of eukaryotic genes was dominated by intron loss, with substantial gain only at the bases of several major branches including plants and animals. The highest intron density, 120 to 130% of the human value, is inferred for the last common ancestor of animals. The reconstruction shows that the entire line of descent from LECA to mammals was intron-rich, a state conducive to the evolution of alternative splicing

Disturbance of deep-sea environments induced by the M9.0 Tohoku Earthquake

The impacts of the M9.0 Tohoku Earthquake on deep-sea environment were investigated 36 and 98 days after the event. The light transmission anomaly in the deep-sea water after 36 days became atypically greater (∼35%) and more extensive (thickness ∼1500 m) near the trench axis owing to the turbulent diffusion of fresh seafloor sediment, coordinated with potential seafloor displacement. In addition to the chemical influx associated with sediment diffusion, an influx of 13C-enriched methane from the deep sub-seafloor reservoirs was estimated. This isotopically unusual methane influx was possibly triggered by the earthquake and its aftershocks that subsequently induced changes in the sub-seafloor hydrogeologic structures. The whole prokaryotic biomass and the development of specific phylotypes in the deep-sea microbial communities could rise and fall at 36 and 98 days, respectively, after the event. We may capture the snap shots of post-earthquake disturbance in deep-sea chemistry and microbial community responses

Seeing eye to eye: social augmented reality and shared decision making in the marketplace

Firms increasingly seek to improve the online shopping experience by enabling customers to exchange product recommendations through social augmented reality (AR). We utilize socially situated cognition theory and conduct a series of five studies to explore how social AR supports shared decision making in recommender–decision maker dyads. We demonstrate that optimal configurations of social AR, that is, a static (vs. dynamic) point-of-view sharing format matched with an image-enhanced (vs. text-only) communicative act, increase recommenders’ comfort with providing advice and decision makers’ likelihood of using the advice in their choice. For both, these effects are due to a sense of social empowerment, which also stimulates recommenders’ desire for a product and positive behavioral intentions. However, recommenders’ communication motives impose boundary conditions. When recommenders have strong impression management concerns, this weakens the effect of social empowerment on recommendation comfort. Furthermore, the stronger a recommender’s persuasion goal, the less likely the decision maker is to use the recommendation in their choice

EST Analysis of Ostreococcus lucimarinus, the Most Compact Eukaryotic Genome, Shows an Excess of Introns in Highly Expressed Genes

Background: The genome of the pico-eukaryotic (bacterial-sized) prasinophyte green alga Ostreococcus lucimarinus has one of the highest gene densities known in eukaryotes, yet it contains many introns. Phylogenetic studies suggest this unusually compact genome (13.2 Mb) is an evolutionarily derived state among prasinophytes. The presence of introns in the highly reduced O. lucimarinus genome appears to be in opposition to simple explanations of genome evolution based on unidirectional tendencies, either neutral or selective. Therefore, patterns of intron retention in this species can potentially provide insights into the forces governing intron evolution. Methodology/Principal Findings: Here we studied intron features and levels of expression in O. lucimarinus using expressed sequence tags (ESTs) to annotate the current genome assembly. ESTs were assembled into unigene clusters that were mapped back to the O. lucimarinus Build 2.0 assembly using BLAST and the level of gene expression was inferred from the number of ESTs in each cluster. We find a positive correlation between expression levels and both intron number (R = +0.0893, p =,0.0005) and intron density (number of introns/kb of CDS; R = +0.0753, p =,0.005). Conclusions/Significance: In a species with a genome that has been recently subjected to a great reduction of non-coding DNA, these results imply the existence of selective/functional roles for introns that are principally detectable in highly expressed genes. In these cases, introns are likely maintained by balancing the selective forces favoring their maintenanc

Forest Biomass Density across Large Climate Gradients in Northern South America is related to Water Availability but not with Temperature

Understanding and predicting the likely response of ecosystems to climate change are crucial challenges for ecology and for conservation biology. Nowhere is this challenge greater than in the tropics as these forests store more than half the total atmospheric carbon stock in their biomass. Biomass is determined by the balance between biomass inputs (i.e., growth) and outputs (mortality). We can expect therefore that conditions that favor high growth rates, such as abundant water supply, warmth, and nutrient-rich soils will tend to correlate with high biomass stocks. Our main objective is to describe the patterns of above ground biomass (AGB) stocks across major tropical forests across climatic gradients in Northwestern South America. We gathered data from 200 plots across the region, at elevations ranging between 0 to 3400 m. We estimated AGB based on allometric equations and values for stem density, basal area, and wood density weighted by basal area at the plot-level. We used two groups of climatic variables, namely mean annual temperature and actual evapotranspiration as surrogates of environmental energy, and annual precipitation, precipitation seasonality, and water availability as surrogates of water availability. We found that AGB is more closely related to water availability variables than to energy variables. In northwest South America, water availability influences carbon stocks principally by determining stand structure, i.e. basal area. When water deficits increase in tropical forests we can expect negative impact on biomass and hence carbon storage

Widespread impact of horizontal gene transfer on plant colonization of land

In complex multicellular eukaryotes such as animals and plants, horizontal gene transfer is commonly considered rare with very limited evolutionary significance. Here we show that horizontal gene transfer is a dynamic process occurring frequently in the early evolution of land plants. Our genome analyses of the moss Physcomitrella patens identified 57 families of nuclear genes that were acquired from prokaryotes, fungi or viruses. Many of these gene families were transferred to the ancestors of green or land plants. Available experimental evidence shows that these anciently acquired genes are involved in some essential or plant-specific activities such as xylem formation, plant defence, nitrogen recycling as well as the biosynthesis of starch, polyamines, hormones and glutathione. These findings suggest that horizontal gene transfer had a critical role in the transition of plants from aquatic to terrestrial environments. On the basis of these findings, we propose a model of horizontal gene transfer mechanism in nonvascular and seedless vascular plants

Evolutionary Convergence on Highly-Conserved 3′ Intron Structures in Intron-Poor Eukaryotes and Insights into the Ancestral Eukaryotic Genome

The presence of spliceosomal introns in eukaryotes raises a range of questions about genomic evolution. Along with the fundamental mysteries of introns' initial proliferation and persistence, the evolutionary forces acting on intron sequences remain largely mysterious. Intron number varies across species from a few introns per genome to several introns per gene, and the elements of intron sequences directly implicated in splicing vary from degenerate to strict consensus motifs. We report a 50-species comparative genomic study of intron sequences across most eukaryotic groups. We find two broad and striking patterns. First, we find that some highly intron-poor lineages have undergone evolutionary convergence to strong 3′ consensus intron structures. This finding holds for both branch point sequence and distance between the branch point and the 3′ splice site. Interestingly, this difference appears to exist within the genomes of green alga of the genus Ostreococcus, which exhibit highly constrained intron sequences through most of the intron-poor genome, but not in one much more intron-dense genomic region. Second, we find evidence that ancestral genomes contained highly variable branch point sequences, similar to more complex modern intron-rich eukaryotic lineages. In addition, ancestral structures are likely to have included polyT tails similar to those in metazoans and plants, which we found in a variety of protist lineages. Intriguingly, intron structure evolution appears to be quite different across lineages experiencing different types of genome reduction: whereas lineages with very few introns tend towards highly regular intronic sequences, lineages with very short introns tend towards highly degenerate sequences. Together, these results attest to the complex nature of ancestral eukaryotic splicing, the qualitatively different evolutionary forces acting on intron structures across modern lineages, and the impressive evolutionary malleability of eukaryotic gene structures

Forcing Versus Feedback: Epidemic Malaria and Monsoon Rains in Northwest India

Malaria epidemics in regions with seasonal windows of transmission can vary greatly in size from year to year. A central question has been whether these interannual cycles are driven by climate, are instead generated by the intrinsic dynamics of the disease, or result from the resonance of these two mechanisms. This corresponds to the more general inverse problem of identifying the respective roles of external forcings vs. internal feedbacks from time series for nonlinear and noisy systems. We propose here a quantitative approach to formally compare rival hypotheses on climate vs. disease dynamics, or external forcings vs. internal feedbacks, that combines dynamical models with recently developed, computational inference methods. The interannual patterns of epidemic malaria are investigated here for desert regions of northwest India, with extensive epidemiological records for Plasmodium falciparum malaria for the past two decades. We formulate a dynamical model of malaria transmission that explicitly incorporates rainfall, and we rely on recent advances on parameter estimation for nonlinear and stochastic dynamical systems based on sequential Monte Carlo methods. Results show a significant effect of rainfall in the inter-annual variability of epidemic malaria that involves a threshold in the disease response. The model exhibits high prediction skill for yearly cases in the malaria transmission season following the monsoonal rains. Consideration of a more complex model with clinical immunity demonstrates the robustness of the findings and suggests a role of infected individuals that lack clinical symptoms as a reservoir for transmission. Our results indicate that the nonlinear dynamics of the disease itself play a role at the seasonal, but not the interannual, time scales. They illustrate the feasibility of forecasting malaria epidemics in desert and semi-arid regions of India based on climate variability. This approach should be applicable to malaria in other locations, to other infectious diseases, and to other nonlinear systems under forcing

Reexamining age, race, site, and thermometer type as variables affecting temperature measurement in adults – A comparison study

BACKGROUND: As a result of the recent international vigilance regarding disease assessment, accurate measurement of body temperature has become increasingly important. Yet, trusted low-tech, portable mercury glass thermometers are no longer available. Thus, comparing accuracy of mercury-free thermometers with mercury devices is essential. Study purposes were 1) to examine age, race, site as variables affecting temperature measurement in adults, and 2) to compare clinical accuracy of low-tech Galinstan-in-glass device to mercury-in-glass at oral, axillary, groin, and rectal sites in adults. METHODS: Setting 176 bed accredited healthcare facility, rural northwest US Participants Convenience sample (N = 120) of hospitalized persons ≥ 18 years old. Instruments Temperatures (°F) measured at oral, skin (simultaneous), immediately followed by rectal sites with four each mercury-glass (BD) and Galinstan-glass (Geratherm) thermometers; 10 minute dwell times. RESULTS: Participants averaged 61.6 years (SD 17.9), 188 pounds (SD 55.3); 61% female; race: 85% White, 8.3% Native Am., 4.2% Hispanic, 1.7 % Asian, 0.8% Black. For both mercury and Galinstan-glass thermometers, within-subject temperature readings were highest rectally; followed by oral, then skin sites. Galinstan assessments demonstrated rectal sites 0.91°F > oral and ≅ 1.3°F > skin sites. Devices strongly correlated between and across sites. Site difference scores between devices showed greatest variability at skin sites; least at rectal site. 95% confidence intervals of difference scores by site (°F): oral (0.142 – 0.265), axilla (0.167 – 0.339), groin (0.037 – 0.321), and rectal (-0.111 – 0.111). Race correlated with age, temperature readings each site and device. CONCLUSION: Temperature readings varied by age, race. Mercury readings correlated with Galinstan thermometer readings at all sites. Site mean differences between devices were considered clinically insignificant. Still considered the gold standard, mercury-glass thermometers may no longer be available worldwide. Therefore, mercury-free, environmentally safe low-tech Galinstan-in-glass may be an appropriate replacement. This is especially important as we face new, internationally transmitted diseases