A low energy demand scenario for meeting the 1.5 °C target and sustainable development goals without negative emission technologies

Scenarios that limit global warming to 1.5 °C describe major transformations in energy supply and ever-rising energy demand. Here, we provide a contrasting perspective by developing a narrative of future change based on observable trends that results in low energy demand. We describe and quantify changes in activity levels and energy intensity in the global North and global South for all major energy services. We project that global final energy demand by 2050 reduces to 245 EJ, around 40% lower than today, despite rises in population, income and activity. Using an integrated assessment modelling framework, we show how changes in the quantity and type of energy services drive structural change in intermediate and upstream supply sectors (energy and land use). Down-sizing the global energy system dramatically improves the feasibility of a low-carbon supply-side transformation. Our scenario meets the 1.5 °C climate target as well as many sustainable development goals, without relying on negative emission technologies

Dietary mineral supplies in Malawi: spatial and socioeconomic assessment

Background Dietary mineral deficiencies are widespread globally causing a large disease burden. However, estimates of deficiency prevalence are often only available at national scales or for small population sub-groups with limited relevance for policy makers. Methods This study combines food supply data from the Third Integrated Household Survey of Malawi with locally-generated food crop composition data to derive estimates of dietary mineral supplies and prevalence of inadequate intakes in Malawi. Results We estimate that >50 % of households in Malawi are at risk of energy, calcium (Ca), selenium (Se) and/or zinc (Zn) deficiencies due to inadequate dietary supplies, but supplies of iron (Fe), copper (Cu) and magnesium (Mg) are adequate for >80 % of households. Adequacy of iodine (I) is contingent on the use of iodised salt with 80 % of rural households living on low-pH soils had inadequate dietary Se supplies compared to 55 % on calcareous soils; concurrent inadequate supplies of Ca, Se and Zn were observed in >80 % of the poorest rural households living in areas with non-calcareous soils. Prevalence of inadequate dietary supplies was greater in rural than urban households for all nutrients except Fe. Interventions to address dietary mineral deficiencies were assessed. For example, an agronomic biofortification strategy could reduce the prevalence of inadequate dietary Se supplies from 82 to 14 % of households living in areas with low-pH soils, including from 95 to 21 % for the poorest subset of those households. If currently-used fertiliser alone were enriched with Se then the prevalence of inadequate supplies would fall from 82 to 57 % with a cost per alleviated case of dietary Se deficiency of ~ US$ 0.36 year−1. Conclusions Household surveys can provide useful insights into the prevalence and underlying causes of dietary mineral deficiencies, allowing disaggregation by spatial and socioeconomic criteria. Furthermore, impacts of potential interventions can be modelled

Variation in grain Zn concentration, and the grain ionome, in field-grown Indian wheat

Wheat is an important dietary source of zinc (Zn) and other mineral elements in many countries. Dietary Zn deficiency is widespread, especially in developing countries, and breeding (genetic biofortification) through the HarvestPlus programme has recently started to deliver new wheat varieties to help alleviate this problem in South Asia. To better understand the potential of wheat to alleviate dietary Zn deficiency, this study aimed to characterise the baseline effects of genotype (G), site (E), and genotype by site interactions (GxE) on grain Zn concentration under a wide range of soil conditions in India. Field experiments were conducted on a diverse panel of 36 Indian-adapted wheat genotypes, grown on a range of soil types (pH range 4.5–9.5), in 2013–14 (five sites) and 2014–15 (six sites). Grain samples were analysed using inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). The mean grain Zn concentration of the genotypes ranged from 24.9–34.8 mg kg-1, averaged across site and year. Genotype and site effects were associated with 10% and 6% of the overall variation in grain Zn concentration, respectively. Whilst G x E interaction effects were evident across the panel, some genotypes had consistent rankings between sites and years. Grain Zn concentration correlated positively with grain concentrations of iron (Fe), sulphur (S), and eight other elements, but did not correlate negatively with grain yield, i.e. no yield dilution was observed. Despite a relatively small contribution of genotype to the overall variation in grain Zn concentration, due to experiments being conducted across many contrasting sites and two years, our data are consistent with reports that biofortifying wheat through breeding is likely to be effective at scale given that some genotypes performed consistently across diverse soil types. Notably, all soils in this study were probably Zn deficient and interactions between wheat genotypes and soil Zn availability/management (e.g. the use of Zn-containing fertilisers) need to be better-understood to improve Zn supply in food systems

Cereal grain mineral micronutrient and soil chemistry data from GeoNutrition surveys in Ethiopia and Malawi.

The dataset comprises primary data for the concentration of 29 mineral micronutrients in cereal grains and up to 84 soil chemistry properties from GeoNutrition project surveys in Ethiopia and Malawi. The work provided insights on geospatial variation in the micronutrient concentration in staple crops, and the potential influencing soil factors. In Ethiopia, sampling was conducted in Amhara, Oromia, and Tigray regions, during the late-2017 and late-2018 harvest seasons. In Malawi, national-scale sampling was conducted during the April-June 2018 harvest season. The concentrations of micronutrients in grain were measured using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). Soil chemistry properties reported include soil pH; total soil nitrogen; total soil carbon (C); soil organic C; effective cation exchange capacity and exchangeable cations; a three-step sequential extraction scheme for the fractionation of sulfur and selenium; available phosphate; diethylenetriaminepentaacetic acid (DTPA)-extractable trace elements; extractable trace elements using 0.01 M Ca(NO3)2 and 0.01 M CaCl2; and isotopically exchangeable Zn. These data are reported here according to FAIR data principles to enable users to further explore agriculture-nutrition linkages