Asymmetric Arbitrage and the Pattern of Futures Prices

Since Keynes first argued that backwardation was the normal state of affairs on futures markets, there have been several theoretical explanations for its existence. In particular, Fort and Quirk have shown that the "Houthakker effect" can lead to a backwardation equilibrium. In this paper, we consider another argument for backwardation suggested by Houthakker, namely, asymmetric arbitrage. Our conclusions are generally negative, despite its intuitive appeal. Specifically, in a world with an equal number of short and long hedgers, with identical utility functions and densities over cash and futures prices, if the futures market is a forward market, then in a rational expectations framework, asymmetric arbitrage has no effect on the pattern of futures (or cash) prices. If we are dealing with a true futures market, under the above assumptions, arbitrage will act to encourage short hedging and to discourage long hedging only under some restrictive conditions. Moreover, further quantitative restrictions must be imposed in order to derive a backwardation equilibrium under asymmetric arbitrage

A physical activity intervention for children with type 1 diabetes- steps to active kids with diabetes (STAK-D): a feasibility study

Background This study describes the development and feasibility evaluation of a physical activity intervention for children with type 1 diabetes called ‘Steps to Active Kids with Diabetes’ (STAK-D). It aims to explore the feasibility and acceptability of the intervention and study design. Methods Thirteen children aged 9-11 years and their parents were recruited from one paediatric diabetes clinic. A process evaluation was conducted alongside a two-arm randomised feasibility trial, including assessment of rate of recruitment, adherence, retention, data completion and burden, implementation fidelity and adverse events. Qualitative interviews with children (n=9), parents (n=8), healthcare professionals (n=3) and STAK-D volunteers (n=8) explored intervention acceptability. Interviews were analysed thematically. Results Rate of recruitment was 25%, with 77% retention at 3-month follow-up. Study burden was low, data completion was high and the intervention was delivered as per protocol. No serious adverse event was reported. Engagement with intervention materials was generally good, but attendance at group activity sessions was low due to logistical barriers. Interview analysis identified preferred methods of recruitment, motivations for recruitment, barriers and facilitators to adherence, the experience of data collection, experience of the STAK-D programme and its perceived benefits. Conclusions STAK-D was feasible and acceptable to children, their parents and healthcare professionals, but group sessions may present logistical issues. Recruitment and retention may be improved with a clinic-wide approach to recruitment. Trial registration This trial was registered on ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02144337 (16/01/2014). Keywords Children, feasibility study, intervention, paediatric diabetes, physical activity, process evaluation, self-efficacy, type 1 diabete

Understanding psychiatric institutionalization: a conceptual review

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited

The MentDis_ICF65+ study protocol: prevalence, 1-year incidence and symptom severity of mental disorders in the elderly and their relationship to impairment, functioning (ICF) and service utilisation.

Background: The EU currently lacks reliable data on the prevalence and incidence of mental disorders in older people. Despite the availability of several national and international epidemiological studies, the size and burden of mental disorders in the elderly remain unclear due to various reasons. Therefore, the aims of the MentDis_ICF65+ study are (1) to adapt existing assessment instruments, and (2) to collect data on the prevalence, the incidence, and the natural course and prognosis of mental disorders in the elderly. Method/design: Using a cross-sectional and prospective longitudinal design, this multi-centre study from six European countries and associated states (Germany, Great Britain, Israel, Italy, Spain, and Switzerland) is based on age-stratified, random samples of elderly people living in the community. The study program consists of three phases: (1) a methodological phase devoted primarily to the adaptation of age- and gender-specific assessment tools for older people (e.g., the Composite International Diagnostic Interview, CIDI) as well as psychometric evaluations including translation, back translation; (2) a baseline community study in all participating countries to assess the lifetime, 12 month and 1 month prevalence and comorbidity of mental disorders, including prior course, quality of life, health care utilization and helpseeking, impairments and participation and, (3) a 12 month follow-up of all baseline participants to monitor course and outcome as well as examine predictors. Discussion: The study is an essential step forward towards the further development and improvement of harmonised instruments for the assessment of mental disorders as well as the evaluation of activity impairment and participation in older adults. This study will also facilitate the comparison of cross-cultural results. These results will have bearing on mental health care in the EU and will offer a starting point for necessary structural changes to be initiated for mental health care policy at the level of mental health care politics

Study approach and field work procedures of the MentDis_ICF65+ project on the prevalence of mental disorders in the older adult European population

Background This study describes the study approach and field procedures of the MentDis_ICF65+ study, which aims to assess the prevalence of mental disorders in older adults. Methods An age-appropriate version of the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI65+) was developed and tested with regard to its feasibility and psychometric properties in a pre-test and pilot phase. In the cross-sectional survey an age-stratified, random sample of older adults (65–84 years) living in selected catchment areas of five European countries and Israel was recruited. Results N = 3142 participants (mean age 73.7 years, 50.7% female) took part in face-to-face interviews. The mean response rate was 20% and varied significantly between centres, age and gender groups. Sociodemographic differences between the study centres appeared for the place of birth, number of grandchildren, close significants, retirement and self-rated financial situation. The comparison of the MentDis_ICF65+ sample with the catchment area and country population of the study centres revealed significant differences, although most of these were numerically small. Conclusions The study will generate new information on the prevalence of common mental disorders among older adults across Europe using an age-appropriate, standardized diagnostic instrument and a harmonized approach to sampling. Generalizability of the findings and a potentially limited representativeness are discussed

Comparison between the disease-specific Airways Questionnaire 20 and the generic 15D instruments in COPD

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Given that the assessment of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) is an essential outcome measure to optimize chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patient management, there is a need for a short and fast, reliable and valid instrument for routine use in clinical practice. The objective of this study was to analyse the relationship between the disease-specific Airways questionnaire (AQ20) and the generic 15D health-related quality of life (HRQoL) instrument simultaneously in a large cohort of patients with COPD. We also compare the HRQoL of COPD patients with that of the general population.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The AQ20 and 15D were administered to 739 COPD patients representing an unselected hospital-based COPD population. The completion rates and validity of, and correlations among the questions and dimension scores were examined. A factor analysis with varimax rotation was performed in order to find subsets of highly correlating items of the questionnaires.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The summary scores of AQ20 and 15D were highly correlated (r = - 0.71, p < 0.01). In AQ20 over 50% of patients reported frequent cough, breathlessness during domestic work, and chest problem limiting their full enjoyment of life. 15D results showed a noteworthy decrease of HRQoL in breathing, mobility, sleeping, usual activities, discomfort and symptoms, vitality, and sexual activity (scores ≤ 0.75). Compared to the age- and gender-standardized Finnish general population, the COPD patients were statistically significantly worse off on 13 of 15 dimensions.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The AQ20 and 15D summary scores are comparable in terms of measuring HRQoL in COPD patients. The data support the validity of 15D to measure the quality of life in COPD. COPD compromises the HRQoL broadly, as reflected by the generic instrument. Both questionnaires are simple and short, and could easily be used in clinical practice with high completion rates.</p

Reduction of claustrophobia during magnetic resonance imaging: methods and design of the "CLAUSTRO" randomized controlled trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Magnetic resonance (MR) imaging has been described as the most important medical innovation in the last 25 years. Over 80 million MR procedures are now performed each year and on average 2.3% (95% confidence interval: 2.0 to 2.5%) of all patients scheduled for MR imaging suffer from claustrophobia. Thus, prevention of MR imaging by claustrophobia is a common problem and approximately 2,000,000 MR procedures worldwide cannot be completed due to this situation. Patients with claustrophobic anxiety are more likely to be frightened and experience a feeling of confinement or being closed in during MR imaging. In these patients, conscious sedation and additional sequences (after sedation) may be necessary to complete the examinations. Further improvements in MR design appear to be essential to alleviate this situation and broaden the applicability of MR imaging. A more open scanner configuration might help reduce claustrophobic reactions while maintaining image quality and diagnostic accuracy.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>We propose to analyze the rate of claustrophobic reactions, clinical utility, image quality, patient acceptance, and cost-effectiveness of an open MR scanner in a randomized comparison with a recently designed short-bore but closed scanner with 97% noise reduction. The primary aim of this study is thus to determine whether an open MR scanner can reduce claustrophobic reactions, thereby enabling more examinations of claustrophobic patients without incurring the safety issues associated with conscious sedation. In this manuscript we detail the methods and design of the prospective "CLAUSTRO" trial.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>This randomized controlled trial will be the first direct comparison of open vertical and closed short-bore MR systems in regards to claustrophobia and image quality as well as diagnostic utility.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p>ClinicalTrials.gov: <a href="http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00715806">NCT00715806</a></p

Salinity and Simulated Herbivory Influence Spartina alterniflora Traits and Defense Strategy

Sea level rise is expected to push saline waters into previously fresher regions of estuaries, and higher salinities may expose oligohaline marshes to invertebrate herbivores typically constrained by salinity. The smooth cordgrass, Spartina alterniflora (syn. Sporobolus alterniflorus), can defend itself against herbivores in polyhaline marshes, however it is not known if S. alterniflora’s defense varies along the mesohaline to oligohaline marsh gradient in estuaries. I found that S. alterniflora from a mesohaline marsh is better defended than plants from an oligohaline marsh, supporting the optimal defense theory. Higher salinity treatments lowered carbon content, C:N, and new stem biomass production, traits associated with a tolerance strategy, suggesting that salinity may mediate the defense response of S. alterniflora. Further, simulated herbivory increased the nitrogen content and decreased C:N of S. alterniflora. This indicates that grazing may increase S. alterniflora susceptibility to future herbivory via improved forage quality. Simulated herbivory also decreased both belowground and new stem biomass production, highlighting a potential pathway in which herbivory can indirectly facilitate marsh loss, as S. alterniflora biomass is critical for vertical accretion and marsh stability under future sea level rise scenarios

Medial prefrontal cortex serotonin 1A and 2A receptor binding interacts to predict threat-related amygdala reactivity

Background\ud The amygdala and medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) comprise a key corticolimbic circuit that helps shape individual differences in sensitivity to threat and the related risk for psychopathology. Although serotonin (5-HT) is known to be a key modulator of this circuit, the specific receptors mediating this modulation are unclear. The colocalization of 5-HT1A and 5-HT2A receptors on mPFC glutamatergic neurons suggests that their functional interactions may mediate 5-HT effects on this circuit through top-down regulation of amygdala reactivity. Using a multimodal neuroimaging strategy in 39 healthy volunteers, we determined whether threat-related amygdala reactivity, assessed with blood oxygen level-dependent functional magnetic resonance imaging, was significantly predicted by the interaction between mPFC 5-HT1A and 5-HT2A receptor levels, assessed by positron emission tomography.\ud \ud Results\ud 5-HT1A binding in the mPFC significantly moderated an inverse correlation between mPFC 5-HT2A binding and threat-related amygdala reactivity. Specifically, mPFC 5-HT2A binding was significantly inversely correlated with amygdala reactivity only when mPFC 5-HT1A binding was relatively low.\ud \ud Conclusions\ud Our findings provide evidence that 5-HT1A and 5-HT2A receptors interact to shape serotonergic modulation of a functional circuit between the amygdala and mPFC. The effect of the interaction between mPFC 5-HT1A and 5-HT2A binding and amygdala reactivity is consistent with the colocalization of these receptors on glutamatergic neurons in the mPFC

A programme theory for liaison mental health services in England

Background: Mechanisms by which liaison mental health services (LMHS) may bring about improved patient and organisational outcomes are poorly understood. A small number of logic models have been developed, but they fail to capture the complexity of clinical practice. Method: We synthesised data from a variety of sources including a large national survey, 73 in-depth interviews with acute and liaison staff working in hospitals with different types of liaison mental health services, and relevant local, national and international literature. We generated logic models for two common performance indicators used to assess organisational outcomes for LMHS: response times in the emergency department and hospital length of stay for people with mental health problems. Results: We identified 8 areas of complexity that influence performance, and 6 trade-offs which drove the models in different directions depending upon the balance of the trade-off. The logic models we developed could only be captured by consideration of more than one pass through the system, the complexity in which they operated, and the trade-offs that occurred. Conclusions: Our findings are important for commissioners of liaison services. Reliance on simple target setting may result in services that are unbalanced and not patient-centred. Targets need to be reviewed on a regular basis, together with other data that reflect the wider impact of the service, and any external changes in the system that affect the performance of LMHS, which are beyond their control