A terminal assessment of stages theory : introducing a dynamic states approach to entrepreneurship

Stages of Growth models were the most frequent theoretical approach to understanding entrepreneurial business growth from 1962 to 2006; they built on the growth imperative and developmental models of that time. An analysis of the universe of such models (N=104) published in the management literature shows no consensus on basic constructs of the approach, nor is there any empirical confirmations of stages theory. However, by changing two propositions of the stages models, a new dynamic states approach is derived. The dynamic states approach has far greater explanatory power than its precursor, and is compatible with leading edge research in entrepreneurship

Restriction of HIV-1 infection in sickle cell trait

Patients with sickle cell disease (SCD) have a lower risk for HIV-1 infection. We reported restriction of ex vivo HIV-1 infection in SCD peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) that was due, in part, to the upregulation of antiviral, inflammatory, and hemolytic factors, including heme oxygenase-1 (HO-1). Here, we investigated whether individuals with sickle cell trait (SCT), who develop mild hemolysis, also restrict HIV-1 infection. Ex vivo infection of SCT PBMCs exhibited an approximately twofold reduction of HIV-1 replication and lower levels of HIV-1 reverse transcription products, 2-long terminal repeat circle, HIV-1 integration, and gag RNA expression. SCT PBMCs had higher HO-1 messenger RNA (mRNA) and protein levels and reduced ribonucleotide reductase 2 (RNR2) protein levels. HO-1 inhibition by tin porphyrin eliminated ex vivo HIV-1 restriction. Among Howard University clinic recruits, higher levels of HO-1 and RNR2 mRNA and lower HIV-1 env mRNA levels were found in SCT individuals living with HIV-1. To determine the population-level effect of SCT on HIV-1 prevalence, we assessed SCT among women living with HIV (WLH) in the WIHS (Women InteragencyHIV-1 Study). Among WIHS African-American participants, the prevalence of SCT was lower among women with HIV compared with uninfected women (8.7% vs 14.2%; odds ratio, 0.57; 95% confidence interval, 0.36-0.92; P = .020). WIHS WLH with SCT had higher levels of CD4+/CD8+ ratios over 20 years of follow-up (P = .003) than matched WLH without SCT. Together, our findings suggest that HIV-1 restriction factors, including HO-1 and RNR2, might restrict HIV-1 infection among individuals with SCT and limit the pathogenicity of HIV

Role of interleukin-10 (IL-10) in regulation of GABAergic transmission and acute response to ethanol

Mounting evidence indicates that ethanol (EtOH) exposure activates neuroimmune signaling. Alterations in pro-inflammatory cytokines after acute and chronic EtOH exposure have been heavily investigated. In contrast, little is known about the regulation of neurotransmission and/or modulation by anti-inflammatory cytokines in the brain after an acute EtOH exposure. Recent evidence suggests that interleukin-10 (IL-10), an anti-inflammatory cytokine, is upregulated during withdrawal from chronic EtOH exposure. In the present study, we show that IL-10 is increased early (1 h) after a single intoxicating dose of EtOH (5 g/kg, intragastric) in Sprague Dawley rats. We also show that IL-10 rapidly regulates GABAergic transmission in dentate gyrus neurons. In brain slice recordings, IL-10 application dose-dependently decreases miniature inhibitory postsynaptic current (mIPSC) area and frequency, and decreases the magnitude of the picrotoxin sensitive tonic current (I(tonic)), indicating both pre- and postsynaptic mechanisms. A PI3K inhibitor LY294002 (but not the negative control LY303511) ablated the inhibitory effects of IL-10 on mIPSC area and I(tonic), but not on mIPSC frequency, indicating the involvement of PI3K in postsynaptic effects of IL-10 on GABAergic transmission. Lastly, we also identify a novel neurobehavioral regulation of EtOH sensitivity by IL-10, whereby IL-10 attenuates acute EtOH-induced hypnosis. These results suggest that EtOH causes an early release of IL-10 in the brain, which may contribute to neuronal hyperexcitability as well as disturbed sleep seen after binge exposure to EtOH. These results also identify IL-10 signaling as a potential therapeutic target in alcohol-use disorders and other CNS disorders where GABAergic transmission is altered

Recommendations for analytical antiretroviral treatment interruptions in HIV research trials: report of a consensus meeting

Analytical antiretroviral treatment interruption (ATI) is an important feature of HIV research, seeking to achieve sustained viral suppression in the absence of antiretroviral therapy (ART) when the goal is to measure effects of novel therapeutic interventions on time to viral load rebound or altered viral setpoint. Trials with ATIs also intend to determine host, virological, and immunological markers that are predictive of sustained viral control off ART. Although ATI is increasingly incorporated into proof-of-concept trials, no consensus has been reached on strategies to maximise its utility and minimise its risks. In addition, differences in ATI trial designs hinder the ability to compare efficacy and safety of interventions across trials. Therefore, we held a meeting of stakeholders from many interest groups, including scientists, clinicians, ethicists, social scientists, regulators, people living with HIV, and advocacy groups, to discuss the main challenges concerning ATI studies and to formulate recommendations with an emphasis on strategies for risk mitigation and monitoring, ART resumption criteria, and ethical considerations. In this Review, we present the major points of discussion and consensus views achieved with the goal of informing the conduct of ATIs to maximise the knowledge gained and minimise the risk to participants in clinical HIV research

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2•72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2•66–2•79) in 2000 to 2•31 (2•17–2•46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134•5 million (131•5–137•8) in 2000 to a peak of 139•6 million (133•0–146•9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135•3 million (127•2–144•1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2•1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27•1% (95% UI 26•4–27•8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67•2 years (95% UI 66•8–67•6) in 2000 to 73•5 years (72•8–74•3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50•7 million (49•5–51•9) in 2000 to 56•5 million (53•7–59•2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9•6 million (9•1–10•3) in 2000 to 5•0 million (4•3–6•0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25•7%, from 6•2 billion (6•0–6•3) in 2000 to 7•7 billion (7•5–8•0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58•6 years (56•1–60•8) in 2000 to 63•5 years (60•8–66•1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019. Interpretation: Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitoring. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990�2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease. Methods: GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk�outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk�outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk�outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden. Findings: The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95 uncertainty interval UI 9·51�12·1) deaths (19·2% 16·9�21·3 of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12�9·31) deaths (15·4% 14·6�16·2 of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253�350) DALYs (11·6% 10·3�13·1 of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0�9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10�24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25�49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50�74 years and 75 years and older. Interpretation: Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Cytotoxic T cell immunity in HIV infection

SIGLEAvailable from British Library Document Supply Centre- DSC:D95144 / BLDSC - British Library Document Supply CentreGBUnited Kingdo

Emergence of drug-resistant HIV-1 variants in patients undergoing structured treatment interruptions

We report the emergence of drug-resistant viral mutations in chronically HIV-infected individuals undergoing structured treatment interruptions (STI). The protease mutation M46L and the reverse transcriptase mutations K101E and K103N were detected at the end of the second or third STI. We conclude that the repeated abrupt termination and resumption of certain antiretroviral drug regimens during STI therapy may lead to the development of drug resistance in chronically HIV-infected individuals