Water-like anomalies for core-softened models of fluids: One dimension

We use a one-dimensional (1d) core-softened potential to develop a physical picture for some of the anomalies present in liquid water. The core-softened potential mimics the effect of hydrogen bonding. The interest in the 1d system stems from the facts that closed-form results are possible and that the qualitative behavior in 1d is reproduced in the liquid phase for higher dimensions. We discuss the relation between the shape of the potential and the density anomaly, and we study the entropy anomaly resulting from the density anomaly. We find that certain forms of the two-step square well potential lead to the existence at T=0 of a low-density phase favored at low pressures and of a high-density phase favored at high pressures, and to the appearance of a point $C'$ at a positive pressure, which is the analog of the T=0 ``critical point'' in the $1d$ Ising model. The existence of point $C'$ leads to anomalous behavior of the isothermal compressibility $K_T$ and the isobaric specific heat $C_P$.Comment: 22 pages, 7 figure

Dengue in Madeira Island

This is a preprint of a paper whose final and definite form will be published in the volume Mathematics of Planet Earth that initiates the book series CIM Series in Mathematical Sciences (CIM-MS) published by Springer. Submitted Oct/2013; Revised 16/July/2014 and 20/Sept/2014; Accepted 28/Sept/2014.Dengue is a vector-borne disease and 40% of world population is at risk. Dengue transcends international borders and can be found in tropical and subtropical regions around the world, predominantly in urban and semi-urban areas. A model for dengue disease transmission, composed by mutually-exclusive compartments representing the human and vector dynamics, is presented in this study. The data is from Madeira, a Portuguese island, where an unprecedented outbreak was detected on October 2012. The aim of this work is to simulate the repercussions of the control measures in the fight of the disease

BICCO-Net II. Final report to the Biological Impacts of Climate Change Observation Network (BICCO-Net) Steering Group

• BICCO-Net Phase II presents the most comprehensive single assessment of climate change impacts on UK biodiversity to date. • The results provide a valuable resource for the CCRA 2018, future LWEC report cards, the National Adaptation Programme and other policy-relevant initiatives linked to climate change impacts on biodiversity

Impacts of climate change on national biodiversity population trends

Climate change has had well-documented impacts on the distribution and phenology of species across many taxa, but impacts on species’ abundance, which relates closely to extinction risk and ecosystem function, have not been assessed across taxa. In the most comprehensive multi-taxa comparison to date, we modelled variation in national population indices of 501 mammal, bird, aphid, butterfly and moth species as a function of annual variation in weather variables, which through time allowed us to identify a component of species’ population growth that can be associated with post-1970s climate trends. We found evidence that these climate trends have significantly affected population trends of 15.8% of species, including eight with extreme (> 30% decline per decade) negative trends consistent with detrimental impacts of climate change. The modelled effect of climate change could explain 48% of the significant across-species population decline in moths and 63% of the population increase in winged aphids. The other taxa did not have significant across-species population trends or consistent climate change responses. Population declines in species of conservation concern were linked to both climatic and non-climatic factors respectively accounting for 42 and 58% of the decline. Evident differential impacts of climate change between trophic levels may signal the potential for future ecosystem disruption. Climate change has therefore already driven large-scale population changes of some species, had significant impacts on the overall abundance of some key invertebrate groups and may already have altered biological communities and ecosystems in Great Britain

Scaling ozone responses of forest trees to the ecosystem level in a changing climate

Many uncertainties remain regarding how climate change will alter the structure and function of forest ecosystems. At the Aspen FACE experiment in northern Wisconsin, we are attempting to understand how an aspen/birch/maple forest ecosystem responds to long-term exposure to elevated carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and ozone (O 3 ), alone and in combination, from establishment onward. We examine how O 3 affects the flow of carbon through the ecosystem from the leaf level through to the roots and into the soil micro-organisms in present and future atmospheric CO 2 conditions. We provide evidence of adverse effects of O 3 , with or without co-occurring elevated CO 2 , that cascade through the entire ecosystem impacting complex trophic interactions and food webs on all three species in the study: trembling aspen ( Populus tremuloides Michx . ), paper birch ( Betula papyrifera Marsh), and sugar maple ( Acer saccharum Marsh). Interestingly, the negative effect of O 3 on the growth of sugar maple did not become evident until 3 years into the study. The negative effect of O 3 effect was most noticeable on paper birch trees growing under elevated CO 2 . Our results demonstrate the importance of long-term studies to detect subtle effects of atmospheric change and of the need for studies of interacting stresses whose responses could not be predicted by studies of single factors. In biologically complex forest ecosystems, effects at one scale can be very different from those at another scale. For scaling purposes, then, linking process with canopy level models is essential if O 3 impacts are to be accurately predicted. Finally, we describe how outputs from our long-term multispecies Aspen FACE experiment are being used to develop simple, coupled models to estimate productivity gain/loss from changing O 3 .Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/72464/1/j.1365-3040.2005.01362.x.pd

A new approach to modelling the relationship between annual population abundance indices and weather data

Weather has often been associated with fluctuations in population sizes of species; however, it can be difficult to estimate the effects satisfactorily because population size is naturally measured by annual abundance indices whilst weather varies on much shorter timescales. We describe a novel method for estimating the effects of a temporal sequence of a weather variable (such as mean temperatures from successive months) on annual species abundance indices. The model we use has a separate regression coefficient for each covariate in the temporal sequence, and over-fitting is avoided by constraining the regression coefficients to lie on a curve defined by a small number of parameters. The constrained curve is the product of a periodic function, reflecting assumptions that associations with weather will vary smoothly throughout the year and tend to be repetitive across years, and an exponentially decaying term, reflecting an assumption that the weather from the most recent year will tend to have the greatest effect on the current population and that the effect of weather in previous years tends to diminish as the time lag increases. We have used this approach to model 501 species abundance indices from Great Britain and present detailed results for two contrasting species alongside an overall impression of the results across all species. We believe this approach provides an important advance to the challenge of robustly modelling relationships between weather and species population size

Prevalence of intellectual disability among eight-year-old children from selected communities in the United States, 2014

Background: Children with intellectual disability (ID), characterized by impairments in intellectual functioning and adaptive behavior, benefit from early identification and access to services. Previous U.S. estimates used administrative data or parent report with limited information for demographic subgroups. Objective: Using empiric measures we examined ID characteristics among 8-year-old children and estimated prevalence by sex, race/ethnicity, geographic area and socioeconomic status (SES) area indicators. Methods: We analyzed data for 8-year-old children in 9 geographic areas participating in the 2014 Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring Network. Children with ID were identified through record review of IQ test data. Census and American Community Survey data were used to estimate the denominator. Results: Overall, 11.8 per 1,000 (1.2%) had ID (IQ ≤ 70), of whom 39% (n = 998) also had autism spectrum disorder. Among children with ID, 1,823 had adaptive behavior test scores for which 64% were characterized as impaired. ID prevalence per 1,000 was 15.8 (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 15.0–16.5) among males and 7.7 (95% CI, 7.2–8.2) among females. ID prevalence was 17.7 (95% CI, 16.6–18.9) among children who were non-Hispanic black; 12.0 (95% CI, 11.1–13.0), among Hispanic; 8.6 (95% CI, 7.1–10.4), among non-Hispanic Asian; and 8.0 (95% CI, 7.5–8.6), among non-Hispanic white. Prevalence varied across geographic areas and was inversely associated with SES. Conclusions: ID prevalence varied substantively among racial, ethnic, geographic, and SES groups. Results can inform strategies to enhance identification and improve access to services particularly for children who are minorities or living in areas with lower SES

Measurement of the p-pbar -> Wgamma + X cross section at sqrt(s) = 1.96 TeV and WWgamma anomalous coupling limits

The WWgamma triple gauge boson coupling parameters are studied using p-pbar -> l nu gamma + X (l = e,mu) events at sqrt(s) = 1.96 TeV. The data were collected with the DO detector from an integrated luminosity of 162 pb^{-1} delivered by the Fermilab Tevatron Collider. The cross section times branching fraction for p-pbar -> W(gamma) + X -> l nu gamma + X with E_T^{gamma} > 8 GeV and Delta R_{l gamma} > 0.7 is 14.8 +/- 1.6 (stat) +/- 1.0 (syst) +/- 1.0 (lum) pb. The one-dimensional 95% confidence level limits on anomalous couplings are -0.88 < Delta kappa_{gamma} < 0.96 and -0.20 < lambda_{gamma} < 0.20.Comment: Submitted to Phys. Rev. D Rapid Communication

Measurement of the ttbar Production Cross Section in ppbar Collisions at sqrt{s} = 1.96 TeV using Kinematic Characteristics of Lepton + Jets Events

We present a measurement of the top quark pair ttbar production cross section in ppbar collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 1.96 TeV using 230 pb**{-1} of data collected by the DO detector at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider. We select events with one charged lepton (electron or muon), large missing transverse energy, and at least four jets, and extract the ttbar content of the sample based on the kinematic characteristics of the events. For a top quark mass of 175 GeV, we measure sigma(ttbar) = 6.7 {+1.4-1.3} (stat) {+1.6- 1.1} (syst) +/-0.4 (lumi) pb, in good agreement with the standard model prediction.Comment: submitted to Phys.Rev.Let

Measurement of the ttbar Production Cross Section in ppbar Collisions at sqrt(s)=1.96 TeV using Lepton + Jets Events with Lifetime b-tagging

We present a measurement of the top quark pair ($t\bar{t}$) production cross section ($\sigma_{t\bar{t}}$) in $p\bar{p}$ collisions at $\sqrt{s}=1.96$ TeV using 230 pb$^{-1}$ of data collected by the D0 experiment at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider. We select events with one charged lepton (electron or muon), missing transverse energy, and jets in the final state. We employ lifetime-based b-jet identification techniques to further enhance the $t\bar{t}$ purity of the selected sample. For a top quark mass of 175 GeV, we measure $\sigma_{t\bar{t}}=8.6^{+1.6}_{-1.5}(stat.+syst.)\pm 0.6(lumi.)$ pb, in agreement with the standard model expectation.Comment: 7 pages, 2 figures, 3 tables Submitted to Phys.Rev.Let