Evaluating currency crises: A multivariate Markov regime switching approach

This paper provides an empirical framework to analyse the nature of currency crises byextending earlier work of Jeanne and Masson (2000) who suggest that a currency crisismodel with multiple equilibria can be estimated using Markov regime switching (MRS)models. However, Jeanne and Masson (2000) assume that the transition probabilitiesacross equilibria are constant and independent of fundamentals. Thus, currency crisis isdriven by a sunspot unrelated to fundamentals. This paper further contributes to theliterature by suggesting a multivariate MRS model to analyse the nature of currencycrises. In the new set up, one can test for the impact of the unobserved dynamics offundamentals on the probability of devaluation. Empirical evidence shows thatexpectations about fundamentals, which are reflected by their unobserved state variables,not only affect the probability of devaluation but also can be used to forecast a currencycrisis one period ahead

Hyperactivation of Nrf2 increases stress tolerance at the cost of aging acceleration due to metabolic deregulation.

Metazoans viability depends on their ability to regulate metabolic processes and also to respond to harmful challenges by mounting anti-stress responses; these adaptations were fundamental forces during evolution. Central to anti-stress responses are a number of short-lived transcription factors that by functioning as stress sensors mobilize genomic responses aiming to eliminate stressors. We show here that increased expression of nuclear factor erythroid 2-related factor (Nrf2) in Drosophila activated cytoprotective modules and enhanced stress tolerance. However, while mild Nrf2 activation extended lifespan, high Nrf2 expression levels resulted in developmental lethality or, after inducible activation in adult flies, in altered mitochondrial bioenergetics, the appearance of Diabetes Type 1 hallmarks and aging acceleration. Genetic or dietary suppression of Insulin/IGF-like signaling (IIS) titrated Nrf2 activity to lower levels, largely normalized metabolic pathways signaling, and extended flies' lifespan. Thus, prolonged stress signaling by otherwise cytoprotective short-lived stress sensors perturbs IIS resulting in re-allocation of resources from growth and longevity to somatic preservation and stress tolerance. These findings provide a reasonable explanation of why most (if not all) cytoprotective stress sensors are short-lived proteins, and it also explains the build-in negative feedback loops (shown here for Nrf2); the low basal levels of these proteins, and why their suppressors were favored by evolution

Cellular Senescence: Defining a Path Forward.

Cellular senescence is a cell state implicated in various physiological processes and a wide spectrum of age-related diseases. Recently, interest in therapeutically targeting senescence to improve healthy aging and age-related disease, otherwise known as senotherapy, has been growing rapidly. Thus, the accurate detection of senescent cells, especially in vivo, is essential. Here, we present a consensus from the International Cell Senescence Association (ICSA), defining and discussing key cellular and molecular features of senescence and offering recommendations on how to use them as biomarkers. We also present a resource tool to facilitate the identification of genes linked with senescence, SeneQuest (available at http://Senequest.net). Lastly, we propose an algorithm to accurately assess and quantify senescence, both in cultured cells and in vivo

Chronic p53-independent p21 expression causes genomic instability by deregulating replication licensing

The cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor p21WAF1/CIP1 (p21) is a cell-cycle checkpoint effector and inducer of senescence, regulated by p53. Yet, evidence suggests that p21 could also be oncogenic, through a mechanism that has so far remained obscure. We report that a subset of atypical cancerous cells strongly expressing p21 showed proliferation features. This occurred predominantly in p53-mutant human cancers, suggesting p53-independent upregulation of p21 selectively in more aggressive tumour cells. Multifaceted phenotypic and genomic analyses of p21-inducible, p53-null, cancerous and near-normal cellular models showed that after an initial senescence-like phase, a subpopulation of p21-expressing proliferating cells emerged, featuring increased genomic instability, aggressiveness and chemoresistance. Mechanistically, sustained p21 accumulation inhibited mainly the CRL4–CDT2 ubiquitin ligase, leading to deregulated origin licensing and replication stress. Collectively, our data reveal the tumour-promoting ability of p21 through deregulation of DNA replication licensing machinery—an unorthodox role to be considered in cancer treatment, since p21 responds to various stimuli including some chemotherapy drugs

On Unit Root Testing with Smooth Transitions

Improved critical values are calculated for Dickey-Fuller-type t ratio unit root tests against trend stationarity about non-linear trend, which is based on one deterministic smooth transition function. Simulation employs finegrid-searchoverbothsmoothtransitionparameterstofind accurate staring values, as well as constrained optimization. In addition, two new parsimonious models are introduced. Finally, an application of the test to the log of Real per capita GNP of USA is provided