Antiretroviral Therapy outcomes among adolescents and youth in rural Zimbabwe

Around 2 million adolescents and 3 million youth are estimated to be living with HIV worldwide. Antiretroviral outcomes for this group appear to be worse compared to adults. We report antiretroviral therapy outcomes from a rural setting in Zimbabwe among patients aged 10-30 years who were initiated on ART between 2005 and 2008. The cohort was stratified into four age groups: 10-15 (young adolescents) 15.1-19 years (adolescents), 19.1-24 years (young adults) and 24.1-29.9 years (older adults). Survival analysis was used to estimate rates of deaths and loss to follow-up stratified by age group. Endpoints were time from ART initiation to death or loss to follow-up. Follow-up of patients on continuous therapy was censored at date of transfer, or study end (31 December 2008). Sex-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios for different age groups. 898 patients were included in the analysis; median duration on ART was 468 days. The risk of death were highest in adults compared to young adolescents (aHR 2.25, 95%CI 1.17-4.35). Young adults and adolescents had a 2-3 times higher risk of loss to follow-up compared to young adolescents. When estimating the risk of attrition combining loss to follow-up and death, young adults had the highest risk (aHR 2.70, 95%CI 1.62-4.52). This study highlights the need for adapted adherence support and service delivery models for both adolescents and young adults

Comparison of 6 Mortality Risk Scores for Prediction of 1-Year Mortality Risk in Older Adults with Multimorbidity

Importance: The most appropriate therapy for older adults with multimorbidity may depend on life expectancy (ie, mortality risk), and several scores have been developed to predict 1-year mortality risk. However, often, these mortality risk scores have not been externally validated in large sample sizes, and a head-to-head comparison in a prospective contemporary cohort is lacking. Objective: To prospectively compare the performance of 6 scores in predicting the 1-year mortality risk in hospitalized older adults with multimorbidity. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prognostic study analyzed data of participants in the OPERAM (Optimising Therapy to Prevent Avoidable Hospital Admissions in Multimorbid Older People) trial, which was conducted between December 1, 2016, and October 31, 2018, in surgical and nonsurgical departments of 4 university-based hospitals in Louvain, Belgium; Utrecht, the Netherlands; Cork, Republic of Ireland; and Bern, Switzerland. Eligible participants in the OPERAM trial had multimorbidity (≥3 coexisting chronic diseases), were aged 70 years or older, had polypharmacy (≥5 long-term medications), and were admitted to a participating ward. Data were analyzed from April 1 to September 30, 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures: The outcome of interest was any-cause death occurring in the first year of inclusion in the OPERAM trial. Overall performance, discrimination, and calibration of the following 6 scores were assessed: Burden of Illness Score for Elderly Persons, CARING (Cancer, Admissions ≥2, Residence in a nursing home, Intensive care unit admit with multiorgan failure, ≥2 Noncancer hospice guidelines) Criteria, Charlson Comorbidity Index, Gagné Index, Levine Index, and Walter Index. These scores were assessed using the following measures: Brier score (0 indicates perfect overall performance and 0.25 indicates a noninformative model); C-statistic and 95% CI; Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and calibration plots; and sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values. Results: The 1879 patients in the study had a median (IQR) age of 79 (74-84) years and 835 were women (44.4%). The median (IQR) number of chronic diseases was 11 (8-16). Within 1 year, 375 participants (20.0%) died. Brier scores ranged from 0.16 (Gagné Index) to 0.24 (Burden of Illness Score for Elderly Persons). C-statistic values ranged from 0.62 (95% CI, 0.59-0.65) for Charlson Comorbidity Index to 0.69 (95% CI, 0.66-0.72) for the Walter Index. Calibration was good for the Gagné Index and moderate for other mortality risk scores. Conclusions and Relevance: Results of this prognostic study suggest that all 6 of the 1-year mortality risk scores examined had moderate prognostic performance, discriminatory power, and calibration in a large cohort of hospitalized older adults with multimorbidity. Overall, none of these mortality risk scores outperformed the others, and thus none could be recommended for use in daily clinical practice.

Autoimmune cytopenias (AIC) following allogeneic haematopoietic stem cell transplant for acquired aplastic anaemia: a joint study of the Autoimmune Diseases and Severe Aplastic Anaemia Working Parties (ADWP/SAAWP) of the European Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation (EBMT).

This retrospective study explored the incidence of autoimmune cytopenia (AIC) in 530 paediatric and adult patients with acquired aplastic anaemia (aAA) who underwent first allogeneic HSCT between 2002 and 2012. AIC was a rare complication with a cumulative incidence of AIC at 1, 3, 5 and 10 years post HSCT of 2.5% (1.2-3.9 95% CI), 4.4% (2.6-6.2 95% CI), 4.6% (2.8-6.5 95% CI) and 5.1% (3.1-7.2 95% CI). Overall survival at 5 years after diagnosis of AIC was 85.9% (71-100 95% CI). Twenty-five patients were diagnosed with AIC at a median of 10.6 (2.6-91.5) months post HSCT. Eight (32%) patients were diagnosed with immune thrombocytopenia (ITP), seven (28%) with autoimmune haemolytic anaemia (AIHA), seven (24%) with Evans syndrome and four (16%) with autoimmune neutropenia (AIN). Treatment strategies were heterogeneous. Complete responses were seen in 12 of 25 patients, with death in three patients. In multivariable Cox analysis of a subgroup of 475 patients, peripheral blood stem cell (PBSC) transplant was associated with higher risk of AIC compared with bone marrow (BM) when conditioning regimens contained fludarabine and/or alemtuzumab (2.81 [1.06-7.49 95% CI]; p = 0.038), or anti-thymocyte globulin (ATG) (2.86 [1.11-7.37 95% CI]; p = 0.029). Myeloablative conditioning was associated with a lower risk of AIC compared with reduced intensity conditioning (RIC) in fludarabine and/or alemtuzumab (0.34 [0.12-0.98 95% CI]; p = 0.046) and ATG containing regimens (0.34 [0.12-0.95 95% CI]; p = 0.04). These findings provide clinically useful information regarding the incidence of a rare and potentially life-threatening complication of allogeneic HSCT for aAA, and further support for BM as the preferred stem cell source for transplant of patients with aAA

Marine spatial planning: risk or opportunity for fisheries in the North Sea?

The North Sea is one of the busiest marine areas in the world. It is also a major fisheries ground. Bordered by seven countries with their own spatial uses and claims, the stage is set for complex and demanding governance challenges. Recent decades have also seen user groups multiply, competition for space and resources increase, and the pressure on the marine environment and its living natural resources grow. As governments strive to balance conservation and economic development needs, they also have to deal with inter-as well as intra-national user conflicts. Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) has arrived as a new approach to these issues. It is argued that for North Sea fishing people and their communities MSP holds risks as well as opportunities, depending on which institutions are formed and what role they are allowed to play in the planning process

Genetic determinants of cortical structure (thickness, surface area and volumes) among disease free adults in the CHARGE Consortium

Cortical thickness, surface area and volumes (MRI cortical measures) vary with age and cognitive function, and in neurological and psychiatric diseases. We examined heritability, genetic correlations and genome-wide associations of cortical measures across the whole cortex, and in 34 anatomically predefined regions. Our discovery sample comprised 22,824 individuals from 20 cohorts within the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology (CHARGE) consortium and the United Kingdom Biobank. Significant associations were replicated in the Enhancing Neuroimaging Genetics through Meta-analysis (ENIGMA) consortium, and their biological implications explored using bioinformatic annotation and pathway analyses. We identified genetic heterogeneity between cortical measures and brain regions, and 160 genome-wide significant associations pointing to wnt/β-catenin, TGF-β and sonic hedgehog pathways. There was enrichment for genes involved in anthropometric traits, hindbrain development, vascular and neurodegenerative disease and psychiatric conditions. These data are a rich resource for studies of the biological mechanisms behind cortical development and aging

Melphalan 140mg/m2 or 200mg/m2 for autologous transplantation in myeloma: results from the Collaboration to Collect Autologous Transplant Outcomes in Lymphoma and Myeloma (CALM) study. A report by the EBMT Chronic Malignancies Working Party

Melphalan at a dose of 200mg/m2 is standard conditioning prior to autologous haematopoietic stem cell transplantation for multiple myeloma, but a dose of 140mg/m2 is often used in clinical practice in patients perceived to be at risk of excess toxicity. To determine if melphalan 200 and melphalan 140 are equally effective and tolerable in clinically relevant patient subgroups we analysed 1964 first single autologous transplantation episodes using a series of Cox proportional-hazards models. Overall survival, progression-free survival, cumulative incidence of relapse, non-relapse mortality, haematopoietic recovery and second primary malignancy rates were not significantly different between the melphalan 140 (n=245) and melphalan 200 (n=1719) groups. Multivariable subgroup analysis showed that disease status at transplantation interacted with overall survival, progression-free survival, and cumulative incidence of relapse, with a significant advantage associated with melphalan 200 in patients transplanted in less than partial response (adjusted hazard ratios for melphalan 200 versus melphalan 140: 0.5, 0.54, and 0.56). In contrast, transplantation in very good partial or complete response significantly favoured melphalan 140 for overall survival (adjusted hazard ratio: 2.02). Age, renal function, prior proteasome inhibitor treatment, gender, or Karnofsky score did not interact with overall/progression-free survival or relapse rate in the melphalan dose groups. There were no significant survival or relapse rate differences between melphalan 200 and melphalan 140 patients with high-risk or standard-risk chromosomal abnormalities. In conclusion, remission status at the time of transplantation may favour melphalan 200 or melphalan 140 for key transplant outcomes (NCT01362972)

Impact of T‐cell depletion strategies on outcomes following hematopoietic stem cell transplantation for idiopathic aplastic anemia: A study on behalf of the European blood and marrow transplant severe aplastic anemia working party

We retrospectively analyzed the outcomes of 1837 adults and children with severe aplastic anemia (SAA) who underwent matched sibling donor (MSD) and matched unrelated donor (MUD) hemopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) between 2000 and 2013. Patients were grouped by transplant conditioning containing either anti‐thymocyte globulin (ATG) (n = 1283), alemtuzumab (n = 261), or no serotherapy (NS) (n = 293). The risks of chronic GvHD were significantly reduced when ATG or alemtuzumab were compared with NS (P = .021 and .003, respectively). Acute GVHD was significantly reduced in favor of alemtuzumab compared with ATG (P = .012) and NS (P < .001). By multivariate analysis, when compared with ATG, alemtuzumab was associated with a lower risk of developing acute (OR 0.262; 95% CI 0.14‐0.47; P < .001) and chronic GVHD (HR 0.58; 95% CI 0.35‐0.94; P = .027). OS was significantly better in ATG and alemtuzumab patients compared with NS (P = .010 and .025). Our data shows inclusion of serotherapy in MSD and MUD HSCT for patients with SAA reduces chronic GVHD and provides a survival advantage over patients not receiving serotherapy. Notably, alemtuzumab reduced the risk of acute and chronic GvHD compared with ATG and indicates that alemtuzumab might be the serotherapy of choice for MSD and MUD transplants for SAA

Proton pump inhibitors and risk of gastric cancer: a population-based cohort study

Proton pump inhibitor (PPI) use leads to hypergastrinaemia, which has been associated with gastrointestinal neoplasia. We evaluated the association between PPI use and risk of gastric cancer using population-based health-care registers in North Jutland, Denmark, during 1990–2003. We compared incidence rates among new users of PPI (n=18 790) or histamine-2-antagonists (H2RAs) (n=17 478) and non-users of either drug. Poisson regression analysis was used to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRRs) adjusted for multiple confounders. We incorporated a 1-year lag time to address potential reverse causation. We identified 109 gastric cancer cases among PPI users and 52 cases among H2RA users. After incorporating the 1-year lag time, we observed IRRs for gastric cancer of 1.2 (95% CI: 0.8–2.0) among PPI users and 1.2 (95% CI: 0.8–1.8) among H2RA users compared with non-users. These estimates are in contrast to significant overall IRRs of 9.0 and 2.8, respectively, without the lag time. In lag time analyses, increased IRRs were observed among PPI users with the largest number of prescriptions or the longest follow-up compared with H2RA users or non-users. Although our results point to a major influence of reverse causation and confounding by indication on the association between PPI use and gastric cancer incidence, the finding of increased incidence among PPI users with most prescriptions and longest follow-up warrants further investigation

Size of third and fourth ventricle in obstructive and communicating acute hydrocephalus after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage

In patients with acute hydrocephalus after aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH), lumbar drainage is possible if the obstruction is in the subarachnoid space (communicating hydrocephalus). In case of intraventricular obstruction (obstructive hydrocephalus), ventricular drainage is the only option. A small fourth ventricle is often considered a sign of obstructive hydrocephalus. We investigated whether the absolute or relative size of the fourth ventricle can indeed distinguish between these two types of hydrocephalus. On CT-scans of 76 consecutive patients with acute headache but normal CT and CSF, we measured the cross-sectional surface of the third and fourth ventricle to obtain normal planimetric values. Subsequently we performed the same measurements on 117 consecutive SAH patients with acute hydrocephalus. These patients were divided according to the distribution of blood on CT-scan into three groups: mainly intraventricular blood (n = 15), mainly subarachnoid blood (n = 54) and both intraventricular and subarachnoid blood (n = 48). The size of the fourth ventricle exceeded the upper limit of normal in 2 of the 6 (33%) patients with intraventricular blood but without haematocephalus, and in 15 of the 54 (28%) patients with mainly subarachnoid blood. The mean ratio between the third and fourth ventricle was 1.45 (SD 0.66) in patients with intraventricular blood and 1.42 (SD 0.91) in those with mainly subarachnoid blood. Neither fourth ventricular size nor the ratio between the third and fourth ventricles discriminates between the two groups. A small fourth ventricle does not necessarily accompany obstructive hydrocephalus and is therefore not a contraindication for lumbar drainage

Room for Improvement in Conducting and Reporting Non-Inferiority Randomized Controlled Trials on Drugs: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND: A non-inferiority (NI) trial is intended to show that the effect of a new treatment is not worse than the comparator. We conducted a review to identify how NI trials were conducted and reported, and whether the standard requirements from the guidelines were followed. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: From 300 randomly selected articles on NI trials registered in PubMed at 5 February 2009, we included 227 NI articles that referred to 232 trials. We excluded studies on bioequivalence, trials on healthy volunteers, non-drug trials, and articles of which the full-text version could not be retrieved. A large proportion of trials (34.0%) did not use blinding. The NI margin was reported in 97.8% of the trials, but only 45.7% of the trials reported the method to determine the margin. Most of the trials used either intention to treat (ITT) (34.9%) or per-protocol (PP) analysis (19.4%), while 41.8% of the trials used both methods. Less than 10% of the trials included a placebo arm to confirm the efficacy of the new drug and active comparator against placebo, and less than 5.0% were reporting the similarity of the current trial with the previous comparator's trials. In general, no difference was seen in the quality of reporting before and after the release of the CONSORT statement extension 2006 or between the high-impact and low-impact journals. CONCLUSION: The conduct and reporting of NI trials can be improved, particularly in terms of maximizing the use of blinding, the use of both ITT and PP analysis, reporting the similarity with the previous comparator's trials to guarantee a valid constancy assumption, and most importantly reporting the method to determine the NI margin