Prognostic value of interleukin-1 receptor antagonist gene polymorphism and cytomegalovirus seroprevalence in patients with coronary artery disease

BACKGROUND: Chronic inflammatory stimuli such as cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection and various genetic polymorphisms determining the inflammatory response are assumed to be important risk factors in atherosclerosis. We investigated whether patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD) and homozygous for allele 2 of the interleukin 1 receptor antagonist (IL-1RA) gene and seropositive for CMV represent a group particular susceptible for recurrent cardiovascular events. METHODS: In a series of 300 consecutive patients with angiographically defined CAD a prospective follow-up was conducted (mean age 57.9 years, median follow-up time 38.2 months). RESULTS: No statistically significant relationship was found between CMV serostatus and IL-1RN*2 (alone or in combination) and risk for future cardiovascular events (CVE). The hazard ratio (HR) for a CVE given positive CMV-serology and IL-1RN*2 was 1.07 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.32–3.72) in the fully adjusted model compared to seronegative CMV patients not carrying the IL-1RN*2 allele. In this prospective cohort study involving 300 patients with angiographically defined CAD at baseline, homozygousity for allele 2 of the IL-1 RA and seropositivity to CMV alone and in combination were not associated with an increased risk for cardiovascular events during follow-up; in addition, combination of the CMV-seropositivity and IL-1RN*2 allele were not associated with a proinflammatory response CONCLUSION: Our study suggests that seropositivity to CMV and IL-1RA*2 genotype alone or in combination might not be a strong risk factor for recurrent cardiovascular events in patients with manifest CAD, and is not associated with levels of established inflammatory markers

Kritik an Population Attributable Fraction bei genauerem Hinsehen nicht gerechtfertigt

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Prognostic value of physicians' assessment of compliance regarding all-cause mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes: primary care follow-up study

BACKGROUND: Whether the primary care physician's assessment of patient compliance is a valuable prognostic marker to identify patients who are at increased risk of death, or merely reflects measurement of various treatment parameters such as HbA(1C )or other laboratory markers is unclear. The objective of this prospective cohort study was to investigate the prognostic value of the physicians' assessment of patient compliance and other factors with respect to all-cause mortality during a one year follow-up period. METHODS: A prospective cohort study was conducted among 1014 patients with type 2 diabetes aged 40 and over (mean age 69 years, SD 10.4, 45% male) who were under medical treatment in 11 participating practices of family physicians and internists working in primary care in a defined region in South Germany between April and June 2000. Baseline data were gathered from patients and physicians by standardized questionnaire. The physician's assessment of patient compliance was assessed by means of a 4-point Likert scale (very good, rather good, rather bad, very bad). In addition, we carried out a survey among physicians by means of a questionnaire to find out which aspects for the assessment of patient compliance were of importance to make this assessment. Active follow-up of patients was conducted after one year to determine mortality. RESULTS: During the one year follow-up 48 (4.7%) of the 1014 patients died. Among other factors such as patient type (patients presenting at office, nursing home or visited patients), gender, age and a history of macrovascular disease, the physician's assessment of patient compliance was an important predictor of all-cause mortality. Patients whose compliance was assessed by the physician as "very bad" (6%) were significantly more likely to die during follow-up (OR = 2.67, 95% CI 1.02–6.97) after multivariable adjustment compared to patients whose compliance was assessed as "rather good" (45%) or "very good" (18%). The HbA(1C)-value and the cholesterol level at baseline showed no statistically significant association with all-cause mortality. According to our survey for most of the physicians self-acceptance of disease, treatment adherence, patient's interest in physician's explanations, attendance at appointments, a good self-management, and a good physician-patient relationship were key elements in the assessment of patient compliance. CONCLUSION: The primary care physician's assessment of patient compliance is a valuable prognostic marker for mortality among patients with type 2 diabetes. Identification of patients in need of improved compliance may help to target preventive measures

Association of self-reported and device-measured sedentary behaviour and physical activity with health-related quality of life among european older adults

Human movement behaviours such as physical activity (PA) and sedentary behaviour (SB) during waking time have a significant impact on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in older adults. In this study, we aimed to analyse the association between self-reported and device-measured SB and PA with HRQoL in a cohort of community-dwelling older adults from four European countries. A subsample of 1193 participants from the SITLESS trial (61% women and 75.1 ± 6.2 years old) were included in the analysis. The association between self-reported and objective measures of SB and PA with HRQoL were quantified using Spearman’s Rho coefficients. The strength of the associations between self-reported and device-measured PA and SB with self-rated HRQoL (mental composite score, MCS; physical composite score, PCS) were assessed through multivariate multiple regression analysis. Self-reported and device-measured PA and SB levels showed significant but poor associations with PCS (p < 0.05). The association with MCS was only significant but poor with self-reported light PA (LPA) and moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA). In conclusion, the findings of this study suggest that both self-reported and device-measured PA of all intensities were positively and significantly associated, while SB was negatively and significantly associated with the PCS of the SF-12. © 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland

Tumour M2-PK as a stool marker for colorectal cancer: comparative analysis in a large sample of unselected older adults vs colorectal cancer patients

Stool testing based on tumour-derived markers might offer a promising approach for non-invasive colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. The aim of this study was to estimate the potential of a new test for faecal tumour M2-PK to discriminate patients with CRC from a large sample of unselected older adults. Faecal tumour M2-PK concentrations were determined in 65 CRC patients and in a population-based sample of 917 older adults (median age: 65 and 62 years, respectively). Sensitivity and specificity of the test were calculated at different cutoff values, and receiver-operating characteristic curves (ROC) were constructed to visualise the discriminatory power of the test. The median (interquartile range) faecal tumour M2-PK concentration was 8.6 U ml−1 (2.8–18.0) among CRC patients and <2 U ml−1 (<2–3.2; P<0.0001) in the population sample. At a cutoff value of 4 U ml−1, sensitivity (95% confidence interval) was 85% (65–96%) for colon cancer and 56% (41–74%) for rectum cancer. Specificity (95% confidence interval) was estimated to be 79% (76–81%). Given the comparatively high sensitivity of the tumour M2-PK stool test (especially for colon cancer) and its simple analysis, the potential use of the test for early detection of CRC merits further investigation. Possibilities to enhance specificity of the test should be explored

ELSID-Diabetes study-evaluation of a large scale implementation of disease management programmes for patients with type 2 diabetes. Rationale, design and conduct – a study protocol [ISRCTN08471887]

BACKGROUND: Diabetes model projects in different regions of Germany including interventions such as quality circles, patient education and documentation of medical findings have shown improvements of HbA1c levels, blood pressure and occurrence of hypoglycaemia in before-after studies (without control group). In 2002 the German Ministry of Health defined legal regulations for the introduction of nationwide disease management programs (DMP) to improve the quality of care in chronically ill patients. In April 2003 the first DMP for patients with type 2 diabetes was accredited. The evaluation of the DMP is essential and has been made obligatory in Germany by the Fifth Book of Social Code. The aim of the study is to assess the effectiveness of DMP by example of type 2 diabetes in the primary care setting of two German federal states (Rheinland-Pfalz and Sachsen-Anhalt). METHODS/DESIGN: The study is three-armed: a prospective cluster-randomized comparison of two interventions (DMP 1 and DMP 2) against routine care without DMP as control group. In the DMP group 1 the patients are treated according to the current situation within the German-Diabetes-DMP. The DMP group 2 represents diabetic care within ideally implemented DMP providing additional interventions (e.g. quality circles, outreach visits). According to a sample size calculation a sample size of 200 GPs (each GP including 20 patients) will be required for the comparison of DMP 1 and DMP 2 considering possible drop-outs. For the comparison with routine care 4000 patients identified by diabetic tracer medication and age (> 50 years) will be analyzed. DISCUSSION: This study will evaluate the effectiveness of the German Diabetes-DMP compared to a Diabetes-DMP providing additional interventions and routine care in the primary care setting of two different German federal states

Development of a clinical prediction model for the onset of functional decline in people aged 65-75 years: Pooled analysis of four European cohort studies

Background: Identifying those people at increased risk of early functional decline in activities of daily living (ADL) is essential for initiating preventive interventions. The aim of this study is to develop and validate a clinical prediction model for onset of functional decline in ADL in three years of follow-up in older people of 65-75 years old. Methods: Four population-based cohort studies were pooled for the analysis: ActiFE-ULM (Germany), ELSA (United Kingdom), InCHIANTI (Italy), LASA (Netherlands). Included participants were 65-75 years old at baseline and reported no limitations in functional ability in ADL at baseline. Functional decline was assessed with two items on basic ADL and three items on instrumental ADL. Participants who reported at least some limitations at three-year follow-up on any of the five items were classified as experiencing functional decline. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to develop a prediction model, with subsequent bootstrapping for optimism-correction. We applied internal-external cross-validation by alternating the data from the four cohort studies to assess the discrimination and calibration across the cohorts. Results: Two thousand five hundred sixty community-dwelling people were included in the analyses (mean age 69.7 ± 3.0 years old, 47.4% female) of whom 572 (22.3%) reported functional decline at three-year follow-up. The final prediction model included 10 out of 22 predictors: age, handgrip strength, gait speed, five-repeated chair stands time (non-linear association), body mass index, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, arthritis, and depressive symptoms. The optimism-corrected model showed good discrimination with a C statistic of 0.72. The calibration intercept was 0.06 and the calibration slope was 1.05. Internal-external cross-validation showed consistent performance of the model across the four cohorts. Conclusions: Based on pooled cohort data analyses we were able to show that the onset of functional decline in ADL in three years in older people aged 65-75 years can be predicted by specific physical performance measures, age, body mass index, presence of depressive symptoms, and chronic conditions. The prediction model showed good discrimination and calibration, which remained stable across the four cohorts, supporting external validity of our findings

Progression and mortality in patients with CKD attending outpatient nephrology clinics across Europe: A novel analytic approach

The incidence of renal replacement therapy (RRT) varies across countries. Yet, little is known about the epidemiology of chronic kidney disease (CKD) outcomes. Our aim was to describe progression and mortality risk in CKD patients not on RRT attending outpatient nephrology clinics across Europe. We used individual data from nine CKD cohorts participating in the European CKD Burden Consortium. A joint model was used to estimate mean eGFR change and mortality risk simultaneously, thereby accounting for mortality risk when estimating eGFR decline and vice versa, while also correcting for the measurement error in eGFR. Results were adjusted for important risk factors (baseline eGFR, age, sex, albuminuria, primary renal disease, diabetes, hypertension, obesity and smoking). 27,771 patients from five countries were included. The adjusted mean annual eGFR decline varied from 0.77 (95%CI 0.45,1.08) ml/min/1.73m2 in the Belgium cohort to 2.43 (95%CI 2.11,2.75) ml/min/1.73m2 in the Spanish cohort. As compared to the Italian PIRP cohort, the adjusted mortality hazard ratio varied from 0.22 (95%CI 0.11,0.43) in the London LACKABO cohort to 1.30 (95%CI 1.13,1.49) in the English CRISIS cohort. Outcomes in CKD patients attending outpatient nephrology clinics varied markedly across European regions. Although eGFR decline showed minor variation, the most variation was observed in CKD mortality. Our results suggest that different healthcare organization systems are potentially associated with differences in outcome of CKD patients within Europe. These results can be used by policy makers to plan resources on a regional, national and European level

Cost-effectiveness of exercise referral schemes enhanced by self-management strategies to battle sedentary behaviour in older adults: Protocol for an economic evaluation alongside the SITLESS three-armed pragmatic randomised controlled trial

Introduction: Promoting physical activity (PA) and reducing sedentary behaviour (SB) may exert beneficial effects on the older adult population, improving behavioural, functional, health and psychosocial outcomes in addition to reducing health, social care and personal costs. This paper describes the planned economic evaluation of SITLESS, a multicountry three-armed pragmatic randomised controlled trial (RCT) which aims to assess the short-term and long-term effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a complex intervention on SB and PA in community-dwelling older adults, based on exercise referral schemes enhanced by a group intervention providing self-management strategies to encourage lifestyle change. Methods and analysis: A within-trial economic evaluation and long-term model from both a National Health Service/personal social services perspective and a broader societal perspective will be undertaken alongside the SITLESS multinational RCT. Healthcare costs (hospitalisations, accident and emergency visits, appointment with health professionals) and social care costs (eg, community care) will be included in the economic evaluation. For the cost-utility analysis, quality-adjusted life-years will be measured using the EQ-5D-5L and capability well-being measured using the ICEpop CAPability measure for Older people (ICECAP-O) questionnaire. Other effectiveness outcomes (health related, behavioural, functional) will be incorporated into a cost-effectiveness analysis and cost-consequence analysis. The multinational nature of this RCT implies a hierarchical structure of the data and unobserved heterogeneity between clusters that needs to be adequately modelled with appropriate statistical and econometric techniques. In addition, a long-term population health economic model will be developed and will synthesise and extrapolate within-trial data with additional data extracted from the literature linking PA and SB outcomes with longer term health states. Methods guidance for population health economic evaluation will be adopted including the use of a long-time horizon, 1.5% discount rate for costs and benefits, cost consequence analysis framework and a multisector perspective. Ethics and dissemination: The study design was approved by the ethics and research committee of each intervention site: the Ethics and Research Committee of Ramon Llull University (reference number: 1314001P) (Fundació Blanquerna, Spain), the Regional Committees on Health Research Ethics for Southern Denmark (reference number: S-20150186) (University of Southern Denmark, Denmark), Office for Research Ethics Committees in Northern Ireland (ORECNI reference number: 16/NI/0185) (Queen’s University of Belfast) and the Ethical Review Board of Ulm University (reference number: 354/15) (Ulm, Germany). Participation is voluntary and all participants will be asked to sign informed consent before the start of the study. This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement number 634 270. This article reflects only the authors' view and the Commission is not responsible for any use that may be made of the information it contains. The findings of the study will be disseminated to different target groups (academia, policymakers, end users) through different means following the national ethical guidelines and the dissemination regulation of the Horizon 2020 funding agency. Use of the EuroQol was registered with the EuroQol Group in 2016. Use of the ICECAP-O was registered with the University of Birmingham in March 2017. Trial registration number: NCT02629666; Pre-results