A Fresh Approach to Forecasting in Astroparticle Physics and Dark Matter Searches

We present a toolbox of new techniques and concepts for the efficient forecasting of experimental sensitivities. These are applicable to a large range of scenarios in (astro-)particle physics, and based on the Fisher information formalism. Fisher information provides an answer to the question what is the maximum extractable information from a given observation?. It is a common tool for the forecasting of experimental sensitivities in many branches of science, but rarely used in astroparticle physics or searches for particle dark matter. After briefly reviewing the Fisher information matrix of general Poisson likelihoods, we propose very compact expressions for estimating expected exclusion and discovery limits (equivalent counts method). We demonstrate by comparison with Monte Carlo results that they remain surprisingly accurate even deep in the Poisson regime. We show how correlated background systematics can be efficiently accounted for by a treatment based on Gaussian random fields. Finally, we introduce the novel concept of Fisher information flux. It can be thought of as a generalization of the commonly used signal-to-noise ratio, while accounting for the non-local properties and saturation effects of background and instrumental uncertainties. It is a powerful and flexible tool ready to be used as core concept for informed strategy development in astroparticle physics and searches for particle dark matter.Comment: 33 pages, 12 figure

Fragments of the earliest land plants

The earliest fossil evidence for land plants comes from microscopic dispersed spores. These microfossils are abundant and widely distributed in sediments, and the earliest generally accepted reports are from rocks of mid-Ordovician age (Llanvirn, 475 million years ago). Although distribution, morphology and ultrastructure of the spores indicate that they are derived from terrestrial plants, possibly early relatives of the bryophytes, this interpretation remains controversial as there is little in the way of direct evidence for the parent plants. An additional complicating factor is that there is a significant hiatus between the appearance of the first dispersed spores and fossils of relatively complete land plants (megafossils): spores predate the earliest megafossils (Late Silurian, 425 million year ago) by some 50 million years. Here we report the description of spore-containing plant fragments from Ordovician rocks of Oman. These fossils provide direct evidence for the nature of the spore-producing plants. They confirm that the earliest spores developed in large numbers within sporangia, providing strong evidence that they are the fossilized remains of bona fide land plants. Furthermore, analysis of spore wall ultrastructure supports liverwort affinities

Concept for controlled transverse emittance transfer within a linac ion beam

For injection of beams into circular machines with different horizontal and vertical emittance acceptance, the injection efficiency can be increased if these beams are flat, i.e. if they feature unequal transverse emittances. Generation of flat electron beams is well known and has been demonstrated already in beam experiments. It was proposed also for ion beams that were generated in an Electron Cyclotron-Resonance (ECR) source. We introduce an extension of the method to beams that underwent charge state stripping without requiring their generation inside an ECR source. Results from multi-particle simulations are presented to demonstrate the validity of the method.Comment: 23 pages (preprint style), 14 Figures, submitted to PRST-A

Representing Structural Information of Helical Charge Distributions in Cylindrical Coordinates

Structural information in the local electric field produced by helical charge distributions, such as dissolved DNA, is revealed in a straightforward manner employing cylindrical coordinates. Comparison of structure factors derived in terms of cylindrical and helical coordinates is made. A simple coordinate transformation serves to relate the Green function in cylindrical and helical coordinates. We also compare the electric field on the central axis of a single helix as calculated in both systems.Comment: 11 pages in plain LaTex, no figures. Accepted for publication in PRE March, 199

Healthy shopper? Blood pressure testing in a shopping centre Pop-Up in England

Background: Improving detection of elevated blood pressure (BP) remains a public health need. We present results from a Pop-Up health check stationed in shopping centres in England. We hypothesise the rate of case detection is related to measurable ‘unhealthiness’ of the shopping centres. Methods: A Pop-Up health check was sited in four and three shopping centres sampled from the top ten unhealthiest and top 15 healthiest shopping regions respectively, following a report ranking towns/cities based on their unhealthy and healthy retail outlets. On one day in each shopping centre, people were approached and consented to BP testing. Outcome measure was people flagged with BP ≥ 140/90 mmHg (cases). Results: We detected 45 (22.6%) and 20 (13.1%) cases from testing 199 and 152 adults in the unhealthy and healthy locations respectively (relative risk 1.72; 95% confidence interval: 1.06 to 2.78). A measure of unhealthy retail outlets (e.g. fast-food outlets) within each shopping centre was associated with detection rate (R2 = 0.61; p = 0.04). Conclusion: An association exists between cases of suspect hypertension found in a health check Pop-Up and measured ‘unhealthiness’ of the shopping centre site. Results hint at strategies for public testing of BP, potentially in the context of reducing health inequalities

Feeling the pressure: a cross-sectional study exploring feasibility of a healthcare Pop-Up for intraocular pressure measurements in shopping centres in England

OBJECTIVES: To test the hypothesis that a shopping centre Pop-Up health check combining an intraocular pressure (IOP) check with a general health check (blood pressure (BP)) is more readily accepted by the general public than an IOP check only. We investigate public awareness of IOP compared with BP and the feasibility of measuring IOP in large numbers in a Pop-Up. DESIGN: A cross-sectional study using a tailor-made healthcare Pop-Up. SETTING: The 'Feeling the Pressure' Pop-Up was sited in eight regionally-different shopping centres in England. PARTICIPANTS: Adult members of the public in shopping centres. METHODS: On one day we measured IOP only and on another measured BP and IOP. IOP was measured by Icare IC100 tonometer (Helsinki, Finland). Potential participants were asked about their awareness of IOP and BP and when they last visited their optometrist. RESULTS: More people attended the combined BP + IOP days (461; 60%; 95% CI 56% to 64%) than IOP-only days (307; 40%, 95% CI 37% to 43%) over 16 days of testing. We recorded IOP in 652 participants (median (IQR) age and IOP of 54 (42 to 68) years and 13 (11 to 15) mm Hg, respectively). Fewer people reported awareness about IOP (19%, 95% CI 16% to 23%) compared with BP (71%, 95% CI 66% to 75%). Of 768 participants, 60 (8%) reported no previous optometric eye examination and 185 (24%) reported >2 years since their most recent examination. CONCLUSIONS: Measuring IOP in large numbers of the public via a shopping centre Pop-Up is feasible. Public engagement was greater when a BP check was offered alongside an IOP check, suggesting unfamiliar health checks can be promoted by aligning them with a more familiar check. Our findings hint at strategies for public health schemes that engage the public with their eye health

Mobile terminal equipment design utilising split-loop phase-lock techniques

The design and resultant performance of the terminal equipment in a mobile satellite system is vitally important in respect to the overall cost/performance compromise of the whole system. Improvements in system performance which also result in a reduction of the equipment cost are rare. However, this paper details a significant advance in terminal design, utilizing a novel form of 'split-loop' phase locked receiver/downconverter system to enable an accurate, stable and wide coverage terminal to be realized at a reduced cost. The system has the capability of automatically locking onto any carrier within a complete transponder, and can cope with severe amplitude modulation and fading effects

Bayesian Model Comparison and Analysis of the Galactic Disk Population of Gamma-Ray Millisecond Pulsars

Pulsed emission from almost one hundred millisecond pulsars (MSPs) has been detected in $\gamma$-rays by the Fermi Large-Area Telescope. The global properties of this population remain relatively unconstrained despite many attempts to model their spatial and luminosity distributions. We perform here a self-consistent Bayesian analysis of both the spatial distribution and luminosity function simultaneously. Distance uncertainties, arising from errors in the parallax measurement or Galactic electron-density model, are marginalized over. We provide a public Python package for calculating distance uncertainties to pulsars derived using the dispersion measure by accounting for the uncertainties in Galactic electron-density model YMW16. Finally, we use multiple parameterizations for the MSP population and perform Bayesian model comparison, finding that a broken power law luminosity function with Lorimer spatial profile are preferred over multiple other parameterizations used in the past. The best-fit spatial distribution and number of $\gamma$-ray MSPs is consistent with results for the radio population of MSPs.Comment: 13 pages, 8 figures, 3 tables + Appendix. Public code and source list available from http://github.com/tedwards2412/MSPDis

A model-based constraint on CO₂ fertilisation

We derive a constraint on the strength of CO2 fertilisation of the terrestrial biosphere through a “top-down” approach, calibrating Earth system model parameters constrained by the post-industrial increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration. We derive a probabilistic prediction for the globally averaged strength of CO2 fertilisation in nature, for the period 1850 to 2000 AD, implicitly net of other limiting factors such as nutrient availability. The approach yields an estimate that is independent of CO2 enrichment experiments. To achieve this, an essential requirement was the incorpo- ration of a land use change (LUC) scheme into the GENIE Earth system model. Using output from a 671-member ensemble of transient GENIE simulations, we build an emulator of the change in atmospheric CO2 concentration change since the preindustrial period. We use this emulator to sample the 28-dimensional input parameter space. A Bayesian calibration of the emulator output suggests that the increase in gross primary productivity (GPP) in response to a doubling of CO2 from preindustrial values is very likely (90 % confidence) to exceed 20 %, with a most likely value of 40–60 %. It is important to note that we do not represent all of the possible contributing mechanisms to the terrestrial sink. The missing processes are subsumed into our calibration of CO2 fertilisation, which therefore represents the combined effect of CO2 fertilisation and additional missing processes. If the missing processes are a net sink then our estimate represents an upper bound. We derive calibrated estimates of carbon fluxes that are consistent with existing estimates. The present-day land–atmosphere flux (1990–2000) is estimated at −0.7 GTC yr−1 (likely, 66 % confidence, in the range 0.4 to −1.7 GTC yr−1). The present-day ocean–atmosphere flux (1990–2000) is estimated to be −2.3 GTC yr−1 (likely in the range −1.8 to −2.7 GTC yr−1). We estimate cumulative net land emissions over the post-industrial period (land use change emissions net of the CO2 fertilisation and climate sinks) to be 66 GTC, likely to lie in the range 0 to 128 GTC