Cognitive Bias in Clinical Medicine

Cognitive bias is increasingly recognised as an important source of medical error, and is both ubiquitous across clinical practice yet incompletely understood. This increasing awareness of bias has resulted in a surge in clinical and psychological research in the area and development of various ‘debiasing strategies’. This paper describes the potential origins of bias based on ‘dual process thinking’, discusses and illustrates a number of the important biases that occur in clinical practice, and considers potential strategies that might be used to mitigate their effect

Conditional preparation of states containing a definite number of photons

A technique for conditionally creating single- or multimode photon-number states is analyzed using Bayesian theory. We consider the heralded N-photon states created from the photons produced by an unseeded optical parametric amplifier when the heralding detector is the time-multiplexed photon-number-resolving detector recently demonstrated by Fitch, et al. [Phys. Rev. A 68, 043814 (2003).] and simultaneously by Achilles, et al. [Opt. Lett. 28, 2387 (2003).]. We find that even with significant loss in the heralding detector, fields with sub-Poissonian photon-number distributions can be created. We also show that heralded multimode fields created using this technique are more robust against detector loss than are single-mode fields.Comment: 6 pages, 6 figures, reference added, typos corrected, content update

Cruise Report prepared by INFOMAR and the Marine Institute, Galway, Ireland to the Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine, the European Maritime and Fisheries Fund and the National Parks and Wildlife Service.

A requirement exists to quantify the abundance and distribution of offshore biogenic and geogenic reef habitats in Irish waters to fulfil Ireland’s legal mandate and to generate baseline data from which appropriate monitoring systems can be established. To address this an extensive offshore reef survey of Ireland’s Northwest Continental margin was commissioned by the National Parks and Wildlife Service (NPWS), funded by the European Maritime and Fisheries Fund (EMFF), and coordinated and led by INFOMAR (Integrated Mapping for the Sustainable Development of Ireland’s Marine Resources) and Ireland’s Marine Institute. The objectives of the survey were to implement the EMFF’s Marine Biodiversity Scheme - Natura Fisheries by mapping offshore reef habitats with a view to protecting them from deterioration due to fishing pressures. The reef project aligns with sub-article 6.2 of the Habitats Directive (EC 92/43/EEC) which requires member states to take measures to avoid deterioration of protected habitats. A survey, Sensitive Ecosystem Assessment and ROV Exploration of Reef (SeaRover), took place in July 2017 aboard the ILV Granuaile equipped with the Marine Institute’s remotely operated vehicle (ROV) Holland 1 and a multidisciplinary team of scientists to observe seabed features and biological associations along the northwest continental shelf. The Holland 1 employs high-definition (HD) camera, various composite video feeds and a robotic arm to facilitate sample collection. The primary scientific objective was to map the distribution and abundance of geogenic and biogenic reef habitat along the northwest shelf edge of Ireland’s continental slope with HD video. Secondary objectives included the collection of biological samples for genetic and population analysis and the collection of sediment cores for ground-truthing seabed mapping data and analysis of micro-plastics within deep-water sediment

Self-field effects upon the critical current density of flat superconducting strips

We develop a general theory to account self-consistently for self-field effects upon the average transport critical current density Jc of a flat type-II superconducting strip in the mixed state when the bulk pinning is characterized by a field-dependent depinning critical current density Jp(B), where B is the local magnetic flux density. We first consider the possibility of both bulk and edge-pinning contributions but conclude that bulk pinning dominates over geometrical edge-barrier effects in state-of-the-art YBCO films and prototype second-generation coated conductors. We apply our theory using the Kim model, JpK(B) = JpK(0)/(1+|B|/B0), as an example. We calculate Jc(Ba) as a function of a perpendicular applied magnetic induction Ba and show how Jc(Ba) is related to JpK(B). We find that Jc(Ba) is very nearly equal to JpK(Ba) when Ba > Ba*, where Ba* is the value of Ba that makes the net flux density zero at the strip's edge. However, Jc(Ba) is suppressed relative to JpK(Ba) at low fields when Ba < Ba*, with the largest suppression occurring when Ba*/B0 is of order unity or larger.Comment: 9 pages, 4 figures, minor revisions to add four reference

Ion energy distribution measurements in rf and pulsed dc plasma discharges

A commercial retarding field analyzer is used to measure the time-averaged ion energy distributions of impacting ions at the powered electrode in a 13.56 MHz driven, capacitively coupled, parallel plate discharge operated at low pressure. The study is carried out in argon discharges at 10 mTorr where the sheaths are assumed to be collisionless. The analyzer is mounted flush with the powered electrode surface where the impacting ion and electron energy distributions are measured for a range of discharge powers. A circuit model of the discharge, in combination with analytical solutions for the ion energy distribution in radio-frequency sheaths, is used to calculate other important plasma parameters from the measured energy distributions. Radio-frequency compensated Langmuir probe measurements provide a comparison with the retarding field analyzer data. The time-resolved capability of the retarding field analyzer is also demonstrated in a separate pulsed dc magnetron reactor. The analyzer is mounted on the floating substrate holder and ion energy distributions of the impinging ions on a growing film, with 100 ns time resolution, are measured through a pulse period of applied magnetron power, which are crucial for the control of the microstructure and properties of the deposited films

The transformative potential of reflective diaries for elite English cricketers

The sport of cricket has a history of its players suffering from mental health issues. The psychological study of cricket and, in particular, the attendant demands of participating at an elite level has not previously received rigorous academic attention. This study explored ten elite male cricketers’ experiences of keeping a daily reflective diary for one month during the competitive season. The aim was to assess how valuable qualitative diaries are in this field. Participants were interviewed regarding their appraisal of the methodology as a self‐help tool that could assist coping with performance pressures and wider life challenges. Three outcomes were revealed: first, that diary keeping was an effective opportunity to reflect upon the past and enhance one’s self (both as an individual and a performer); second, that diary keeping acted as a form of release that allowed participants to progress; and third, that diary keeping allowed participants to discover personal patterns of success that increased the likeliness of optimum performance

Unsettling sustainability: the poetics of discomfort

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The Rate of Homogenous Nucleation of Ice in Supercooled Water.

The homogeneous freezing of water is of fundamental importance to a number of fields, including that of cloud formation. However, there is considerable scatter in homogeneous nucleation rate coefficients reported in the literature. Using a cold stage droplet system designed to minimize uncertainties in temperature measurements, we examined the freezing of over fifteen hundred pure water droplets with diameters between 4 and 24 μm. Under the assumption that nucleation occurs within the bulk of the droplet, nucleation rate coefficients fall within the spread of literature data and are in good agreement with a subset of more recent measurements. To quantify the relative importance of surface and volume nucleation in our experiments, where droplets are supported by a hydrophobic surface and surrounded by oil, comparison of droplets with different surface area to volume ratios was performed. From our experiments it is shown that in droplets larger than 6 µm diameter (between 234.6 and 236.5 K), nucleation in the interior is more important than nucleation at the surface. At smaller sizes we cannot rule out a significant contribution of surface nucleation, and in order to further constrain surface nucleation experiments with smaller droplets are necessary. Nevertheless, in our experiments, it is dominantly volume nucleation controlling the observed nucleation rate

Comparing predictions made by a prediction model, clinical score, and physicians Pediatric asthma exacerbations in the emergency department

Background: Asthma exacerbations are one of the most common medical reasons for children to be brought to the hospital emergency department (ED). Various prediction models have been proposed to support diagnosis of exacerbations and evaluation of their severity. Objectives: First, to evaluate prediction models constructed from data using machine learning techniques and to select the best performing model. Second, to compare predictions from the selected model with predictions from the Pediatric Respiratory Assessment Measure (PRAM) score, and predictions made by ED physicians. Design: A two-phase study conducted in the ED of an academic pediatric hospital. In phase 1 data collected prospectively using paper forms was used to construct and evaluate five prediction models, and the best performing model was selected. In phase 2, data collected prospectively using a mobile system was used to compare the predictions of the selected prediction model with those from PRAM and ED physicians. Measurements: Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and accuracy in phase 1; accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values in phase 2. Results: In phase 1 prediction models were derived from a data set of 240 patients and evaluated using 10-fold cross validation. A naive Bayes (NB) model demonstrated the best performance and it was selected for phase 2. Evaluation in phase 2 was conducted on data from 82 patients. Predictions made by the NB model were less accurate than the PRAM score and physicians (accuracy of 70.7%, 73.2% and 78.0% respectively), however, according to McNemar’s test it is not possible to conclude that the differences between predictions are statistically significant. Conclusion: Both the PRAM score and the NB model were less accurate than physicians. The NB model can handle incomplete patient data and as such may complement the PRAM score. However, it requires further research to improve its accuracy

The Work-Rate of Elite Hurling Match-Play

This study describes the global work-rate of elite hurling match-play and the influence which positional difference has on workrate is considered. The movement of ninety-four players was recorded using global positioning system, sampling at 4 Hz in a total of 12 games. Data were classified according to the positional line on the field and period of the match. The total and high-speed distance of match-play was 7,617 6 1,219 m (95% confidence interval [CI], 7,367–7,866) and 1,134 6 358 m (95% CI, 1,060–1,206), respectively. The maximum speed attained was 29.8 6 2.3 km.h-1 with a mean speed of 6.1 6 1 kmh 21. The second {271 6 107 m (p = 0.001; effect size [ES] = 0.25)}, third (278 6 118 m [p = 0.001; ES = 0.21]), and fourth quarter (255 6 108 m [p = 0.001; ES = 0.31]) high-speed running distance differed significantly from that of the first quarter (330 6 120 m). There was a significant difference in total (p = 0.001; ES = 0.01–0.85), high-speed running (p = 0.001; ES = 0.21–0.76), and sprint (p = 0.013; ES = 0.01–0.39) distance across the positions, with midfielders undertaking the highest volume of work, followed by the half-forward and half-back lines and finally the full-forward and full-back lines. A decrease in high-speed running distance seems to occur through out the game and in particular at the latter stages of each half. Distinct positional work profiles are evident. The present finding provide a context on which training which replicates the work-rate of match-play may be formulated, thus helping to improve the physical preparation of elite players