Intercomparison of methods of coupling between convection and large-scale circulation: 1. Comparison over uniform surface conditions

As part of an international intercomparison project, a set of single column models (SCMs) and cloud-resolving models (CRMs) are run under the weak temperature gradient (WTG) method and the damped gravity wave (DGW) method. For each model, the implementation of the WTG or DGW method involves a simulated column which is coupled to a reference state defined with profiles obtained from the same model in radiative-convective equilibrium. The simulated column has the same surface conditions as the reference state and is initialized with profiles from the reference state. We performed systematic comparison of the behavior of different models under a consistent implementation of the WTG method and the DGW method and systematic comparison of the WTG and DGW methods in models with different physics and numerics. CRMs and SCMs produce a variety of behaviors under both WTG and DGW methods. Some of the models reproduce the reference state while others sustain a large-scale circulation which results in either substantially lower or higher precipitation compared to the value of the reference state. CRMs show a fairly linear relationship between precipitation and circulation strength. SCMs display a wider range of behaviors than CRMs. Some SCMs under the WTG method produce zero precipitation. Within an individual SCM, a DGW simulation and a corresponding WTG simulation can produce different signed circulation. When initialized with a dry troposphere, DGW simulations always result in a precipitating equilibrium state. The greatest sensitivities to the initial moisture conditions occur for multiple stable equilibria in some WTG simulations, corresponding to either a dry equilibrium state when initialized as dry or a precipitating equilibrium state when initialized as moist. Multiple equilibria are seen in more WTG simulations for higher SST. In some models, the existence of multiple equilibria is sensitive to some parameters in the WTG calculations

Increased light, moderate, and severe clear-air turbulence in response to climate change

Anthropogenic climate change is expected to strengthen the vertical wind shears at aircraft cruising altitudes within the atmospheric jet streams. Such a strengthening would increase the prevalence of shear instabilities, which generate clear-air turbulence. Climate modelling studies have indicated that the amount of moderate-or-greater clear-air turbulence on transatlantic flight routes in winter will increase significantly in future as the climate changes. However, the individual responses of light, moderate, and severe clear-air turbulence have not previously been studied, despite their importance for aircraft operations. Here we use climate model simulations to analyse the transatlantic wintertime clear-air turbulence response to climate change in five aviation-relevant turbulence strength categories. We find that the probability distributions for an ensemble of 21 clear-air turbulence diagnostics generally gain probability in their right-hand tails when the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is doubled. By converting the diagnostics into equivalent eddy dissipation rates, we find that the ensemble-average airspace volume containing light clear-air turbulence increases by 59% (with an intra-ensemble range of 43–68%), light-to-moderate by 75% (39–96%), moderate by 94% (37–118%), moderate-to-severe by 127% (30–170%), and severe by 149% (36–188%). These results suggest that the prevalence of transatlantic wintertime clear-air turbulence will increase significantly in all aviation-relevant strength categories as the climate changes

Occupational differences in US Army suicide rates

Background Civilian suicide rates vary by occupation in ways related to occupational stress exposure. Comparable military research finds suicide rates elevated in combat arms occupations. However, no research has evaluated variation in this pattern by deployment history, the indicator of occupation stress widely considered responsible for the recent rise in the military suicide rate. Method The joint associations of Army occupation and deployment history in predicting suicides were analysed in an administrative dataset for the 729 337 male enlisted Regular Army soldiers in the US Army between 2004 and 2009. Results There were 496 suicides over the study period (22.4/100 000 person-years). Only two occupational categories, both in combat arms, had significantly elevated suicide rates: infantrymen (37.2/100 000 person-years) and combat engineers (38.2/100 000 person-years). However, the suicide rates in these two categories were significantly lower when currently deployed (30.6/100 000 person-years) than never deployed or previously deployed (41.2–39.1/100 000 person-years), whereas the suicide rate of other soldiers was significantly higher when currently deployed and previously deployed (20.2–22.4/100 000 person-years) than never deployed (14.5/100 000 person-years), resulting in the adjusted suicide rate of infantrymen and combat engineers being most elevated when never deployed [odds ratio (OR) 2.9, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.1–4.1], less so when previously deployed (OR 1.6, 95% CI 1.1–2.1), and not at all when currently deployed (OR 1.2, 95% CI 0.8–1.8). Adjustment for a differential ‘healthy warrior effect’ cannot explain this variation in the relative suicide rates of never-deployed infantrymen and combat engineers by deployment status. Conclusions Efforts are needed to elucidate the causal mechanisms underlying this interaction to guide preventive interventions for soldiers at high suicide risk.Psycholog

Stereophotogrammetry of Oceanic Clouds

This study extends ground-based stereophotogrammetry of clouds to oceanic settings, where there are often none of the landmarks used in traditional camera calibration. This paper introduces a zero-landmark calibration technique and tests it with two off-the-shelf digital cameras situated about 1 km apart facing Biscayne Bay in Miami, Florida. The precision of the stereo reconstruction is studied theoretically, and the accuracy of the reconstructions is validated against lidar and radiosondes. The stereo cameras are able to accurately reconstruct a histogram of cloud-base heights from a single-image pair, a task that requires tens of minutes of observation from a cloud lidar. The stereo cameras are also able to accurately reconstruct horizontal winds in cloud layers with a temporal resolution in the range of 30 s to 5 min, compared to once every 12 h for a typical radiosonde launch site

Reconciling Differences Between Large-Eddy Simulations and Doppler Lidar Observations of Continental Shallow Cumulus Cloud-Base Vertical Velocity

©2019. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. We investigate a significant model-observation difference found between cloud-base vertical velocity for continental shallow cumulus simulated using large-eddy simulations (LES) and observed by Doppler lidar measurements over the U.S. Southern Great Plains Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Facility. The LES cloud-base vertical velocity is dominated by updrafts that are consistent with a general picture for convective clouds but is inconsistent with Doppler lidar observations that also show the presence of considerable downdrafts. The underestimation of simulated downdrafts is found to be a robust feature, being insensitive to various numerical, physical, or dynamical choices. We find that simulations can more closely reproduce observations only after improving the model physics to use size-resolved microphysics and horizontal longwave radiation, both of which modify the cloud buoyancy and velocity structure near cloud side edges. The results suggest that treatments that capture these structures are needed for the proper simulation and subsequent parameterization development of shallow cumulus vertical transport