Opinion dynamics: models, extensions and external effects

Recently, social phenomena have received a lot of attention not only from social scientists, but also from physicists, mathematicians and computer scientists, in the emerging interdisciplinary field of complex system science. Opinion dynamics is one of the processes studied, since opinions are the drivers of human behaviour, and play a crucial role in many global challenges that our complex world and societies are facing: global financial crises, global pandemics, growth of cities, urbanisation and migration patterns, and last but not least important, climate change and environmental sustainability and protection. Opinion formation is a complex process affected by the interplay of different elements, including the individual predisposition, the influence of positive and negative peer interaction (social networks playing a crucial role in this respect), the information each individual is exposed to, and many others. Several models inspired from those in use in physics have been developed to encompass many of these elements, and to allow for the identification of the mechanisms involved in the opinion formation process and the understanding of their role, with the practical aim of simulating opinion formation and spreading under various conditions. These modelling schemes range from binary simple models such as the voter model, to multi-dimensional continuous approaches. Here, we provide a review of recent methods, focusing on models employing both peer interaction and external information, and emphasising the role that less studied mechanisms, such as disagreement, has in driving the opinion dynamics. [...]Comment: 42 pages, 6 figure

Monsters: interdisciplinary explorations in monstrosity

There is a continued fascination with all things monster. This is partly due to the popular reception of Mary Shelley’s Monster, termed a “new species” by its overreaching but admiringly determined maker Victor Frankenstein in the eponymous novel first published in 1818. The enduring impact of Shelley’s novel, which spans a plethora of subjects and genres in imagery and themes, raises questions of origin and identity, death, birth and family relationships as well as the contradictory qualities of the monster. Monsters serve as metaphors for anxieties of aberration and innovation. Stephen Asma (2009) notes that monsters represent evil or moral transgression and each epoch, to speak with Michel Foucault, evidences a “particular type of monster” (2003, 66). Academic debates tend to explore how social and cultural threats come to be embodied in the figure of a monster and their actions literalize our deepest fears. Monsters in contemporary culture, however, have become are more humane than ever before. Monsters are strong, resilient, creative and sly creatures. Through their playful and invigorating energy they can be seen to disrupt and unsettle. They still cater to the appetite for horror, but they also encourage us to feel empathy. The encounter with a monster can enable us to stop, wonder and change our attitudes towards technology and our body and each other. This commentary article considers the use of the concepts of ‘monsters’ or ‘monstrosity’ in literature, contemporary research, culture and teaching contexts at the intersection of the Humanities and the Social Sciences

Characteristics and Outcomes of Patients With Cerebral Venous Sinus Thrombosis in SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine–Induced Immune Thrombotic Thrombocytopenia

Importance: Thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS) has been reported after vaccination with the SARS-CoV-2 vaccines ChAdOx1 nCov-19 (Oxford-AstraZeneca) and Ad26.COV2.S (Janssen/Johnson & Johnson). Objective: To describe the clinical characteristics and outcome of patients with cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST) after SARS-CoV-2 vaccination with and without TTS. Design, setting, and participants: This cohort study used data from an international registry of consecutive patients with CVST within 28 days of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination included between March 29 and June 18, 2021, from 81 hospitals in 19 countries. For reference, data from patients with CVST between 2015 and 2018 were derived from an existing international registry. Clinical characteristics and mortality rate were described for adults with (1) CVST in the setting of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine-induced immune thrombotic thrombocytopenia, (2) CVST after SARS-CoV-2 vaccination not fulling criteria for TTS, and (3) CVST unrelated to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination. Exposures: Patients were classified as having TTS if they had new-onset thrombocytopenia without recent exposure to heparin, in accordance with the Brighton Collaboration interim criteria. Main outcomes and measures: Clinical characteristics and mortality rate. Results: Of 116 patients with postvaccination CVST, 78 (67.2%) had TTS, of whom 76 had been vaccinated with ChAdOx1 nCov-19; 38 (32.8%) had no indication of TTS. The control group included 207 patients with CVST before the COVID-19 pandemic. A total of 63 of 78 (81%), 30 of 38 (79%), and 145 of 207 (70.0%) patients, respectively, were female, and the mean (SD) age was 45 (14), 55 (20), and 42 (16) years, respectively. Concomitant thromboembolism occurred in 25 of 70 patients (36%) in the TTS group, 2 of 35 (6%) in the no TTS group, and 10 of 206 (4.9%) in the control group, and in-hospital mortality rates were 47% (36 of 76; 95% CI, 37-58), 5% (2 of 37; 95% CI, 1-18), and 3.9% (8 of 207; 95% CI, 2.0-7.4), respectively. The mortality rate was 61% (14 of 23) among patients in the TTS group diagnosed before the condition garnered attention in the scientific community and 42% (22 of 53) among patients diagnosed later. Conclusions and relevance: In this cohort study of patients with CVST, a distinct clinical profile and high mortality rate was observed in patients meeting criteria for TTS after SARS-CoV-2 vaccination.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Nonparametric estimation of the hazard function by using a model selection method: estimation of cancer deaths in Hiroshima atomic bomb survivors

Controversy has intensified regarding the death-rate from cancer that is induced by a dose of radiation. In the models that are usually considered the hazard function is an increasing function of the dose of radiation. Such models can mask local variations. We consider the models of excess relative risk and of absolute risk and propose a nonparametric estimation of the effect of the dose by using a model selection procedure. This estimation deals with stratified data. We approximate the function of the dose by a collection of splines and select the best one according to the Akaike information criterion. In the same way between the models of excess relative risk or excess absolute risk, we choose the model that best fits the data. We propose a bootstrap method for calculating a pointwise confidence interval of the dose function. We apply our method for estimating the solid cancer and leukaemia death hazard functions to Hiroshima. Copyright 2005 Royal Statistical Society.

Respiratory modulation of human autonomic function: long-term neuroplasticity in space

Prediction is an important aspect of scientific practice, because it helps us to confirm theories and effectively intervene on the systems we are investigating. In ecology, prediction is a controversial topic: even though the number of papers focusing on prediction is constantly increasing, many ecologists believe that the quality of ecological predictions is unacceptably low, in the sense that they are not sufficiently accurate sufficiently often. Moreover, ecologists disagree on how predictions can be improved. On one side are the ‘theory-driven’ ecologists, those who believe that ecology lacks a sufficiently strong theoretical framework. For them, more general theories will yield more accurate predictions. On the other are the ‘applied’ ecologists, whose research is focused on effective interventions on ecological systems. For them, deeper knowledge of the system in question is more important than background theory. The aim of this paper is to provide a philosophical examination of both sides of the debate: as there are strengths and weaknesses in both approaches to prediction, a pluralistic approach is best for the future of predictive ecology