Assessment and Validation of Collision "Consequence" Method of Assessing Orbital Regime Risk Posed by Potential Satellite Conjunctions

Collision risk management theory requires a thorough assessment of both the likelihood and consequence of potential collision events. Satellite conjunction risk assessment has produced a highly-developed theory for assessing the likelihood of collision but neglects to account for the consequences of a given collision. While any collision may compromise the operational survival of a spacecraft, the amount of debris produced by the potential collision, and therefore the degree to which the orbital corridor may be compromised, can vary greatly among satellite conjunctions. Previous studies leveraged work on satellite collision modeling to develop a method to estimate whether a particular collision is likely to produce a relatively large or relatively small amount of resultant debris. The approximation of the number of debris pieces is dependent on a mass estimation process for the secondary objects utilizing the radar cross section of said object. This study examines the validity of the mass estimation process and establishes uncertainty bounds on the secondary object mass, which will be used to best approximate the possible consequences of a potential collision. This process is then applied to a large set of historical conjunctions to assess the frequency at which possible collisions may significantly augment the orbital debris environment in operational spacecraft

Pioneer Venus polarimetry and haze optical thickness

The Pioneer Venus mission provided us with high-resolution measurements at four wavelengths of the linear polarization of sunlight reflected by the Venus atmosphere. These measurements span the complete phase angle range and cover a period of more than a decade. A first analysis of these data by Kawabata et al. confirmed earlier suggestions of a haze layer above and partially mixed with the cloud layer. They found that the haze exhibits large spatial and temporal variations. The haze optical thickness at a wavelength of 365 nm was about 0.06 at low latitudes, but approximately 0.8 at latitudes from 55 deg poleward. Differences between morning and evening terminator have also been reported by the same authors. Using an existing cloud/haze model of Venus, we study the relationship between the haze optical thickness and the degree of linear polarization. Variations over the visible disk and phase angle dependence are investigated. For that purpose, exact multiple scattering computations are compared with Pioneer Venus measurements. To get an impression of the variations over the visible disk, we have first studied scans of the polarization parallel to the intensity equator. After investigating a small subset of the available data we have the following results. Adopting the haze particle characteristics given by Kawabata et al., we find a thickening of the haze at increasing latitudes. Further, we see a difference in haze optical thickness between the northern and southern hemispheres that is of the same order of magnitude as the longitudinal variation of haze thickness along a scan line. These effects are most pronounced at a wavelength of 935 nm. We must emphasize the tentative nature of the results, because there is still an enormous amount of data to be analyzed. We intend to combine further polarimetric research of Venus with constraints on the haze parameters imposed by physical and chemical processes in the atmosphere

Explaining the unexplainable: leveraging extremal dependence to characterize the 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave

In late June, 2021, a devastating heatwave affected the US Pacific Northwest and western Canada, breaking numerous all-time temperature records by large margins and directly causing hundreds of fatalities. The observed 2021 daily maximum temperature across much of the U.S. Pacific Northwest exceeded upper bound estimates obtained from single-station temperature records even after accounting for anthropogenic climate change, meaning that the event could not have been predicted under standard univariate extreme value analysis assumptions. In this work, we utilize a flexible spatial extremes model that considers all stations across the Pacific Northwest domain and accounts for the fact that many stations simultaneously experience extreme temperatures. Our analysis incorporates the effects of anthropogenic forcing and natural climate variability in order to better characterize time-varying changes in the distribution of daily temperature extremes. We show that greenhouse gas forcing, drought conditions and large-scale atmospheric modes of variability all have significant impact on summertime maximum temperatures in this region. Our model represents a significant improvement over corresponding single-station analysis, and our posterior medians of the upper bounds are able to anticipate more than 96% of the observed 2021 high station temperatures after properly accounting for extremal dependence.Comment: 19 pages, 4 figures and 2 table

A stochastic movement simulator improves estimates of landscape connectivity

Acknowledgments This publication issued from the project TenLamas funded by the French Ministère de l'Energie, de l'Ecologie, du Développement Durable et de la Mer through the EU FP6 BiodivERsA Eranet; by the Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR) through the open call INDHET and 6th extinction MOBIGEN to V. M. Stevens, M. Baguette, and A. Coulon, and young researcher GEMS (ANR-13-JSV7-0010-01) to V. M. Stevens and M. Baguette; and by a VLIR-VLADOC scholarship awarded to J. Aben. L. Lens, J. Aben, D. Strubbe, and E. Matthysen are grateful to the Research Foundation Flanders (FWO) for financial support of fieldwork and genetic analysis (grant G.0308.13). V. M. Stevens and M. Baguette are members of the “Laboratoire d'Excellence” (LABEX) entitled TULIP (ANR-10-LABX-41). J. M. J. Travis and S. C. F. Palmer also acknowledge the support of NERC. A. Coulon and J. Aben contributed equally to the work.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Detected changes in precipitation extremes at their native scales derived from in situ measurements

The gridding of daily accumulated precipitation -- especially extremes -- from ground-based station observations is problematic due to the fractal nature of precipitation, and therefore estimates of long period return values and their changes based on such gridded daily data sets are generally underestimated. In this paper, we characterize high-resolution changes in observed extreme precipitation from 1950 to 2017 for the contiguous United States (CONUS) based on in situ measurements only. Our analysis utilizes spatial statistical methods that allow us to derive gridded estimates that do not smooth extreme daily measurements and are consistent with statistics from the original station data while increasing the resulting signal to noise ratio. Furthermore, we use a robust statistical technique to identify significant pointwise changes in the climatology of extreme precipitation while carefully controlling the rate of false positives. We present and discuss seasonal changes in the statistics of extreme precipitation: the largest and most spatially-coherent pointwise changes are in fall (SON), with approximately 33% of CONUS exhibiting significant changes (in an absolute sense). Other seasons display very few meaningful pointwise changes (in either a relative or absolute sense), illustrating the difficulty in detecting pointwise changes in extreme precipitation based on in situ measurements. While our main result involves seasonal changes, we also present and discuss annual changes in the statistics of extreme precipitation. In this paper we only seek to detect changes over time and leave attribution of the underlying causes of these changes for future work

Geoacoustic inversion by mode amplitude perturbation

Author Posting. © Acoustical Society of America, 2008. This article is posted here by permission of Acoustical Society of America for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of the Acoustical Society of America 123 (2008): 667-678, doi:10.1121/1.2821975.This paper introduces a perturbative inversion algorithm for determining sea floor acoustic properties, which uses modal amplitudes as input data. Perturbative inverse methods have been used in the past to estimate bottom acoustic properties in sediments, but up to this point these methods have used only the modal eigenvalues as input data. As with previous perturbative inversion methods, the one developed in this paper solves the nonlinear inverse problem using a series of approximate, linear steps. Examples of the method applied to synthetic and experimental data are provided to demonstrate the method's feasibility. Finally, it is shown that modal eigenvalue and amplitude perturbation can be combined into a single inversion algorithm that uses all of the potentially available modal data.Funding for the research presented here was provided by the Office of Naval Research, and the WHOI Academic Programs Office

Mitigation of Double-crested Cormorant Impacts on Lake Ontario: From Planning and Practice to Product Delivery

The New York State Department of Environmental Conservation initiated a Double-crested Cormorant (Phalacrocorax auritus) control program in the eastern basin of Lake Ontario to mitigate cormorant impacts in 1999. Key objectives included improving the quality of Smallmouth Bass (Micropterus dolomieu) and other fisheries, restoring the structure and function of the warmwater fish community and reducing cormorant impacts to nesting habitats of other colonial waterbird species. In eight years of intensive control, cormorant numbers declined, with a corresponding reduction in estimated fish consumption. Diversity and numbers of co-occurring waterbirds either increased or have not been shown to be negatively impacted by management. Woody vegetation favorable to Black-crowned Night-Herons (Nycticorax nycticorax) has been maintained. A ca. 2.5-fold increase in the abundance of Smallmouth Bass abundance in assessment nets over the last seven years is a sign of improved recruitment to the fishery. Since the target population level of 4,500 to 6,000 cormorants has essentially been achieved, the eastern Lake Ontario cormorant program is expected to shift in 2007 from a population reduction focus towards a less intensive program intended to prevent population resurgence

Benchmarking treewidth as a practical component of tensor-network--based quantum simulation

Tensor networks are powerful factorization techniques which reduce resource requirements for numerically simulating principal quantum many-body systems and algorithms. The computational complexity of a tensor network simulation depends on the tensor ranks and the order in which they are contracted. Unfortunately, computing optimal contraction sequences (orderings) in general is known to be a computationally difficult (NP-complete) task. In 2005, Markov and Shi showed that optimal contraction sequences correspond to optimal (minimum width) tree decompositions of a tensor network's line graph, relating the contraction sequence problem to a rich literature in structural graph theory. While treewidth-based methods have largely been ignored in favor of dataset-specific algorithms in the prior tensor networks literature, we demonstrate their practical relevance for problems arising from two distinct methods used in quantum simulation: multi-scale entanglement renormalization ansatz (MERA) datasets and quantum circuits generated by the quantum approximate optimization algorithm (QAOA). We exhibit multiple regimes where treewidth-based algorithms outperform domain-specific algorithms, while demonstrating that the optimal choice of algorithm has a complex dependence on the network density, expected contraction complexity, and user run time requirements. We further provide an open source software framework designed with an emphasis on accessibility and extendability, enabling replicable experimental evaluations and future exploration of competing methods by practitioners.Comment: Open source code availabl

Mitigation of Double-crested Cormorant Impacts on Lake Ontario: From Planning and Practice to Product Delivery

The New York State Department of Environmental Conservation initiated a Double-crested Cormorant (Phalacrocorax auritus) control program in the eastern basin of Lake Ontario to mitigate cormorant impacts in 1999. Key objectives included improving the quality of Smallmouth Bass (Micropterus dolomieu) and other fisheries, restoring the structure and function of the warmwater fish community and reducing cormorant impacts to nesting habitats of other colonial waterbird species. In eight years of intensive control, cormorant numbers declined, with a corresponding reduction in estimated fish consumption. Diversity and numbers of co-occurring waterbirds either increased or have not been shown to be negatively impacted by management. Woody vegetation favorable to Black-crowned Night-Herons (Nycticorax nycticorax) has been maintained. A ca. 2.5-fold increase in the abundance of Smallmouth Bass abundance in assessment nets over the last seven years is a sign of improved recruitment to the fishery. Since the target population level of 4,500 to 6,000 cormorants has essentially been achieved, the eastern Lake Ontario cormorant program is expected to shift in 2007 from a population reduction focus towards a less intensive program intended to prevent population resurgence