Forecasting for day-ahead offshore maintenance scheduling under uncertainty

Offshore wind farm maintenance operations are complex and dangerous, and as such are subject to strict safety constraints. In addition, crew and vessels must be scheduled in advance for both planned and reactive maintenance operations. Meteorological forecasts on many time-scales are used to inform scheduling decisions, but are imperfect. Short-term maintenance scheduling is therefore a problem of decision-making under uncertainty. This paper proposes a probabilistic approach to the short-term scheduling problem based on a cost-loss model for individual maintenance missions, and probabilistic forecasts of appropriate access windows. This approach is found to increase the utilisation of possible access windows compared to using deterministic decision rules. The impact of forecasting on the availability and operational costs of oshore wind is then examined using a Monte Carlo-based cost model. This has quantified the impact on availability and revenue performance under a range of site conditions

Cumulus cloud venting of mixed layer ozone

Observations are presented which substantiate the hypothesis that significant vertical exchange of ozone and aerosols occurs between the mixed layer and the free troposphere during cumulus cloud convective activity. The experiments utilized the airborne Ultra-Violet Differential Absorption Lidar (UV-DIAL) system. This system provides simultaneous range resolved ozone concentration and aerosol backscatter profiles with high spatial resolution. Evening transects were obtained in the downwind area where the air mass had been advected. Space-height analyses for the evening flight show the cloud debris as patterns of ozone typically in excess of the ambient free tropospheric background. This ozone excess was approximately the value of the concentration difference between the mixed layer and free troposphere determined from independent vertical soundings made by another aircraft in the afternoon

Development of a high-altitude airborne dial system: The Lidar Atmospheric Sensing Experiment (LASE)

The ability of a Differential Absorption Lidar (DIAL) system to measure vertical profiles of H2O in the lower atmosphere was demonstrated both in ground-based and airborne experiments. In these experiments, tunable lasers were used that required real-time experimenter control to locate and lock onto the atmospheric H2O absorption line for the DIAL measurements. The Lidar Atmospheric Sensing Experiment (LASE) is the first step in a long-range effort to develop and demonstrate an autonomous DIAL system for airborne and spaceborne flight experiments. The LASE instrument is being developed to measure H2O, aerosol, and cloud profiles from a high-altitude ER-2 (extended range U-2) aircraft. The science of the LASE program, the LASE system design, and the expected measurement capability of the system are discussed

Influence of mountain waves and NAT nucleation mechanisms on Polar Stratospheric Cloud formation at local and synoptic scales during the 1999?2000 Arctic winter

International audienceA scheme for introducing mountain wave-induced temperature pertubations in a microphysical PSC model has been developed. A data set of temperature fluctuations attributable to mountain waves as computed by the Mountain Wave Forecast Model (MWFM-2) has been used for the study. The PSC model has variable microphysics, enabling different nucleation mechanisms for nitric acid trihydrate, NAT, to be employed. In particular, the difference between the formation of NAT and ice particles in a scenario where NAT formation is not dependent on preexisting ice particles, allowing NAT to form at temperatures above the ice frost point, Tice, and a scenario, where NAT nucleation is dependent on preexisting ice particles, is examined. The performance of the microphysical model in the different microphysical scenarios and a number of temperature scenarios with and without the influence of mountain waves is tested through comparisons with lidar measurements of PSCs made from the NASA DC-8 on 23 and 25 January during the SOLVE/THESEO 2000 campaign in the 1999?2000 winter and the effect of mountain waves on local PSC production is evaluated in the different microphysical scenarios. Mountain wave-induced temperature fluctuations are introduced in vortex-covering model runs, extending the full 1999?2000 winter season, and the effect of mountain waves on large-scale PSC production is estimated in the different microphysical scenarios

Visualisation of probabilistic access forecasts for offshore operations

Access forecasting aims to predict the quality of transfer of maintenance technicians to/from vessels and the constituent offshore structures at the wind farm. This is highly dependent on sea state conditions as well as other environmental factors such as visibility. Typically, scheduling or dispatch decisions are made on the basis of deterministic forecasts of significant wave height, often coupled with service contracts where transfers are expected to be attempted below a threshold significant wave height. However, there is always uncertainty in a weather prediction which can be accounted for by probabilistic forecasts. The aim of this work is to explore visualisation ideas for transforming vessel specific access forecasts into an interpretable and intuitive decision-support tool. Three simple methods are proposed based on a score out of 10, classification of transfer conditions, and a threshold score. Methods for summarising access conditions for 2-5 days ahead are also developed. This new forecasting and visualisation capability has significant implications for marine coordinators and skippers who will be able to make better informed safety-critical decisions, with the potential for reductions in the cost-of-energy offshore

In situ measurements of tropospheric volcanic plumes in Ecuador and Colombia during TC

A NASA DC‐8 research aircraft penetrated tropospheric gas and aerosol plumes sourced from active volcanoes in Ecuador and Colombia during the Tropical Composition, Cloud and Climate Coupling (TC4 ) mission in July–August 2007. The likely source volcanoes were Tungurahua (Ecuador) and Nevado del Huila (Colombia). The TC4 data provide rare insight into the chemistry of volcanic plumes in the tropical troposphere and permit a comparison of SO2 column amounts measured by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on the Aura satellite with in situ SO2 measurements. Elevated concentrations of SO2, sulfate aerosol, and particles were measured by DC‐8 instrumentation in volcanic outflow at altitudes of 3–6 km. Estimated plume ages range from ∼2 h at Huila to ∼22–48 h downwind of Ecuador. The plumes contained sulfate‐rich accumulation mode particles that were variably neutralized and often highly acidic. A significant fraction of supermicron volcanic ash was evident in one plume. In‐plume O3 concentrations were ∼70%–80% of ambient levels downwind of Ecuador, but data are insufficient to ascribe this to O3 depletion via reactive halogen chemistry. The TC4 data record rapid cloud processing of the Huila volcanic plume involving aqueous‐phase oxidation of SO2 by H2O2, but overall the data suggest average in‐plume SO2 to sulfate conversion rates of ∼1%–2% h−1 . SO2 column amounts measured in the Tungurahua plume (∼0.1–0.2 Dobson units) are commensurate with average SO2 columns retrieved from OMI measurements in the volcanic outflow region in July 2007. The TC4 data set provides further evidence of the impact of volcanic emissions on tropospheric acidity and oxidizing capacit

An assessment of ozone photochemistry in the extratropical western North Pacific: Impact of continental outflow during the late winter/early spring

This study examines the influence of photochemical processes on tropospheric ozone distributions over the extratropical western North Pacific. The analysis presented ere is based on data collected during the Pacific Exploratory Mission-West Phase B (PEM-West B) field study conducted in February-March 1994. Sampling in the study region involved altitudes of 0-12 km and latitudes of 10°S to 50°N. The extratropical component of the data set (i.e., 20-50°N) was defined by markedly different photochemical environments north and south of 30°N. This separation was clearly defined by an abrupt decrease in the tropopause height near 30°N and a concomitant increase in total O3 column density. This shift in overhead O3 led to highly reduced rates of O3 formation and destruction for the 30-50°N latitude regime. Both latitude ranges, however, stili exhibited net O3 production at all altitudes. Of special significance was the finding that net O3 production prevailed even at boundary layer and lower free tropospheric altitudes (e.g., < 4 km), a condition uncommon to Pacific marine environments. These results reflect the strong impact of continental outflow of O3 precursors (e.g., NO and NMHCs) into the northwestern Pacific Basin. Comparisons with PEM-West A, which sampled the same region in a different season (September-October), revealed major differences at altitudes below 4 km, the altitude range most influenced by continental outflow. The resulting net rate of increase in the tropospheric O3 column for PEM-West B was 1-3% per day, while for PEM-West A it was approximately zero. Unique to the PEM-West B study is the finding that even under wintertime conditions substantial column production of tropospheric O3 can occur at subtropical and mid-latitudes. While such impacts may not be totally unexpected at near coast locations, the present study suggests that the impact from continental outflow on the marine BL could extend out to distances of more than 2000 km from the Asian Pacific Rim