TOPMELT 1.0: a topography-based distribution function approach to snowmelt simulation for hydrological modelling at basin scale

Abstract. Enhanced temperature-index distributed models for snowpack simulation, incorporating air temperature and a term for clear sky potential solar radiation, are increasingly used to simulate the spatial variability of the snow water equivalent. This paper presents a new snowpack model (termed TOPMELT) which integrates an enhanced temperature-index model into the ICHYMOD semi-distributed basin-scale hydrological model by exploiting a statistical representation of the distribution of clear sky potential solar radiation. This is obtained by discretizing the full spatial distribution of clear sky potential solar radiation into a number of radiation classes. The computation required to generate a spatially distributed water equivalent reduces to a single calculation for each radiation class. This turns into a potentially significant advantage when parameter sensitivity and uncertainty estimation procedures are carried out. The radiation index may be also averaged in time over given time periods. Thus, the model resembles a classical temperature-index model when only one radiation class for each elevation band and a temporal aggregation of 1 year is used, whereas it approximates a fully distributed model by increasing the number of the radiation classes and decreasing the temporal aggregation. TOPMELT is integrated within the semi-distributed ICHYMOD model and is applied at an hourly time step over the Aurino Basin (also known as the Ahr River) at San Giorgio (San Giorgio Aurino), a 614 km2 catchment in the Upper Adige River basin (eastern Alps, Italy) to examine the sensitivity of the snowpack and runoff model results to the spatial and temporal aggregation of the radiation fluxes. It is shown that the spatial simulation of the snow water equivalent is strongly affected by the aggregation scales. However, limited degradation of the snow simulations is achieved when using 10 radiation classes and 4 weeks as spatial and temporal aggregation scales respectively. Results highlight that the effects of space–time aggregation of the solar radiation patterns on the runoff response are scale dependent. They are minimal at the scale of the whole Aurino Basin, while considerable impact is seen at a basin scale of 5 km2

Spatial moments of catchment rainfall: rainfall spatial organisation, basin morphology, and flood response

Abstract. This paper describes a set of spatial rainfall statistics (termed "spatial moments of catchment rainfall") quantifying the dependence existing between spatial rainfall organisation, basin morphology and runoff response. These statistics describe the spatial rainfall organisation in terms of concentration and dispersion statistics as a function of the distance measured along the flow routing coordinate. The introduction of these statistics permits derivation of a simple relationship for the quantification of catchment-scale storm velocity. The concept of the catchment-scale storm velocity takes into account the role of relative catchment orientation and morphology with respect to storm motion and kinematics. The paper illustrates the derivation of the statistics from an analytical framework recently proposed in literature and explains the conceptual meaning of the statistics by applying them to five extreme flash floods occurred in various European regions in the period 2002–2007. High resolution radar rainfall fields and a distributed hydrologic model are employed to examine how effective are these statistics in describing the degree of spatial rainfall organisation which is important for runoff modelling. This is obtained by quantifying the effects of neglecting the spatial rainfall variability on flood modelling, with a focus on runoff timing. The size of the study catchments ranges between 36 to 982 km2. The analysis reported here shows that the spatial moments of catchment rainfall can be effectively employed to isolate and describe the features of rainfall spatial organization which have significant impact on runoff simulation. These statistics provide useful information on what space-time scales rainfall has to be monitored, given certain catchment and flood characteristics, and what are the effects of space-time aggregation on flood response modeling

Corrigendum to "Spatial moments of catchment rainfall: rainfall spatial organisation, basin morphology, and flood response" published in Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 3767–3783, 2011

No abstract available

Extreme flood response to short-duration convective rainfall in South-West Germany

The 2 June 2008 flood-producing storm on the Starzel river basin in South-West Germany is examined as a prototype for organized convective systems that dominate the upper tail of the precipitation frequency distribution and are likely responsible for the flash flood peaks in Central Europe. The availability of high-resolution rainfall estimates from radar observations and a rain gauge network, together with indirect peak discharge estimates from a detailed post-event survey, provided the opportunity to study in detail the hydrometeorological and hydrological mechanisms associated with this extreme storm and the ensuing flood. Radar-derived rainfall, streamgauge data and indirect estimates of peak discharges are used along with a distributed hydrologic model to reconstruct hydrographs at multiple locations. Observations and model results are combined to examine two main questions, (i) assessment of the distribution of the runoff ratio for the 2008 flash flood and how it compares with other less severe floods; and (ii) analysis of how the spatial and temporal distribution of the extreme rainfall, and more specifically storm motion, controls the flood response. It is shown that small runoff ratios (less than 20 %) characterized the runoff response and that these values are in the range of other, less extreme, flood events. The influence of storm structure, evolution and motion on the modeled flood hydrograph is examined by using the “spatial moments of catchment rainfall”. It is shown that downbasin storm motion (in the range of 0.7–0.9ms−1) had a noticeable impact on flood response by increasing the modeled flood peak by 13 %

Corrigendum to "Spatial moments of catchment rainfall: rainfall spatial organisation, basin morphology, and flood response" published in Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 3767–3783, 2011

No abstract available

Organisational strategies and practices to improve care using patient experience data in acute NHS hospital trusts: an ethnographic study

The NHS collects a lot of information about patients’ experiences of care; however, it is not clear how this information is used to achieve quality improvements. This study had two main aims: one was to explore how this information, also called patient experience data, translates into quality improvements in NHS hospitals, and the other was to understand the role of nurses in collecting, making sense of and using these data for improving care. The study had two phases. In phase 1, we observed practices in five NHS hospitals in England and interviewed key participants (including NHS staff and patient/carer representatives) to study what happened to patient experience data, especially in the areas of cancer and dementia care. In phase 2, we held a series of workshops (the first with participants from all five trusts and policy-makers, and then one workshop at each trust) to discuss how the early findings from our research may be relevant to NHS trusts. We found that (1) each type of data, for example a survey, goes through several transformations – from a paper questionnaire, to an electronic database, to a report – which can lead to care improvements at different stages of this transformation process; (2) when data are part of interactions – either with members of staff or with certain processes in the organisation – characterised by authority and autonomy, and context-awareness, it often leads to care improvements; (3) nurses are largely responsible for how data are collected, made sense of and used to improve care, but other roles – including those of clerical staff and other clinicians – are also important and may need more attention; (4) official quality improvement work may not take into account the less documented ‘everyday quality improvement’ work that happens in the organisation; and (5) holding workshops with participants can help organisational learning

Fermions Tunnelling from Black Holes

We investigate the tunnelling of spin 1/2 particles through event horizons. We first apply the tunnelling method to Rindler spacetime and obtain the Unruh temperature. We then apply fermion tunnelling to a general non-rotating black hole metric and show that the Hawking temperature is recovered.Comment: 22 pages, v2: added references, v3: fixed minor typos, v4: added a new section applying fermion tunnelling method to Kruskal-Szekers coordinates, fixed minor typo, and added references, v5: modified introduction and conclusion, fixed typo

A multi-element psychosocial intervention for early psychosis (GET UP PIANO TRIAL) conducted in a catchment area of 10 million inhabitants: study protocol for a pragmatic cluster randomized controlled trial

Multi-element interventions for first-episode psychosis (FEP) are promising, but have mostly been conducted in non-epidemiologically representative samples, thereby raising the risk of underestimating the complexities involved in treating FEP in 'real-world' services

Impact of rainfall spatial aggregation on the identification of debris flow occurrence thresholds

The systematic underestimation observed in debris flow early warning thresholds has been associated with the use of sparse rain gauge networks to represent highly non-stationary rainfall fields. Remote sensing products permit concurrent estimates of debris-flow-triggering rainfall for areas poorly covered by rain gauges, but the impact of using coarse spatial resolutions to represent such rainfall fields is still to be assessed. This study uses fine-resolution radar data for ∼  100 debris flows in the eastern Italian Alps to (i) quantify the effect of spatial aggregation (1–20 km grid size) on the estimation of debris-flow-triggering rainfall and on the identification of early warning thresholds and (ii) compare thresholds derived from aggregated estimates and rain gauge networks of different densities. The impact of spatial aggregation is influenced by the spatial organization of rainfall and by its dependence on the severity of the triggering rainfall. Thresholds from aggregated estimates show 8–21 % variation in the parameters whereas 10–25 % systematic variation results from the use of rain gauge networks, even for densities as high as 1∕10 km−2