Modeling Uncertainty in Climate Change: A Multi-Model Comparison

The economics of climate change involves a vast array of uncertainties, complicating both the analysis and development of climate policy. This study presents the results of the first comprehensive study of uncertainty in climate change using multiple integrated assessment models. The study looks at model and parametric uncertainties for population, total factor productivity, and climate sensitivity. It estimates the pdfs of key output variables, including CO2 concentrations, temperature, damages, and the social cost of carbon (SCC). One key finding is that parametric uncertainty is more important than uncertainty in model structure. Our resulting pdfs also provide insights on tail events

Biological and environmental influences on the migration phenology of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar smolts in a chalk stream in southern England

1. Migration enables animals to access important resources throughout their lifetime but exists in a trade-off with elevated mortality risk. In spring, juvenile Atlantic salmon (smolts) migrate from their natal rivers for marine feeding grounds, with the timing of their marine entry a potentially important determinant of their long-term survival. However, there is relatively little known on how the interaction of biological and environmental factors affect smolt migration phenology at the individual level, and how these vary throughout the duration of the smolt seaward migration (run). 2. Using 15-year tag, recapture, and detection datasets of individual smolts (marked with passive integrated transponder tags) from a chalk stream in southern England, the influences of a range of biological and environmental variables were tested on the run timing of individual smolts, measured as the timing of their arrival in a lower river reach. 3. The probability of smolts arriving earlier in the lower river reach was elevated following winters that were relatively warm, and when there were larger positive daily changes in water temperature and discharge during the run. Early migrants tended to be larger individuals and from sites lower in the catchment, from where the smolts had to migrate relatively shorter distances. Later migrants were more likely to migrate in schools, but with schooling behaviour also more likely to occur during daylight than at night. 4. The relative influence of some of these variables altered throughout the run. Relative changes in daily water temperature were not important during the middle period of the smolt run but were important at the start and end of the run. Relative changes in daily discharge were most influential towards the end of the run, when even relatively small changes in discharge had a strong influence on migration. 5. These results reveal the importance of a wide range of biological and environmental variables on the phenology of smolt migrations, and how their influence can alter throughout the run. With predictions of annually increasing river temperatures, more frequent and intense discharge events, and associated shifts to earlier migration, these results emphasise that such changes in climate are likely to have substantial consequences on the future success of smolt migrations and thereby future numbers of returning adult spawners

The Science Case for PILOT I: Summary and Overview

Original article can be found at: http://www.publish.csiro.au/?nid=139&aid=108 DOI: 10.1071/AS08048 [Open access article]PILOT (the Pathfinder for an International Large Optical Telescope) is a proposed 2.5-m optical/infrared telescope to be located at Dome C on the Antarctic plateau. Conditions at Dome C are known to be exceptional for astronomy. The seeing (above ∼30 m height), coherence time, and isoplanatic angle are all twice as good as at typical mid-latitude sites, while the water-vapour column, and the atmosphere and telescope thermal emission are all an order of magnitude better. These conditions enable a unique scientific capability for PILOT, which is addressed in this series of papers. The current paper presents an overview of the optical and instrumentation suite for PILOT and its expected performance, a summary of the key science goals and observational approach for the facility, a discussion of the synergies between the science goals for PILOT and other telescopes, and a discussion of the future of Antarctic astronomy. Paper II and Paper III present details of the science projects divided, respectively, between the distant Universe (i.e. studies of first light, and the assembly and evolution of structure) and the nearby Universe (i.e. studies of Local Group galaxies, the Milky Way, and the Solar System).Peer reviewe

Induced innovation in energy technologies and systems: a review of evidence and potential implications for CO2 mitigation

We conduct a systematic, interdisciplinary review of empirical literature assessing evidence on induced innovation in energy and related technologies. We explore links between demand-drivers (both market-wide and targeted); indicators of innovation (principally, patents); and outcomes (cost reduction, efficiency, and multi-sector/macro consequences). We build on existing reviews in different fields and assess over 200 papers containing original data analysis. Papers linking drivers to patents, and indicators of cumulative capacity to cost reductions (experience curves), dominate the literature. The former does not directly link patents to outcomes; the latter does not directly test for the causal impact of on cost reductions). Diverse other literatures provide additional evidence concerning the links between deployment, innovation activities, and outcomes. We derive three main conclusions. (1) Demand-pull forces enhance patenting; econometric studies find positive impacts in industry, electricity and transport sectors in all but a few specific cases. This applies to all drivers - general energy prices, carbon prices, and targeted interventions that build markets. (2) Technology costs decline with cumulative investment for almost every technology studied across all time periods, when controlled for other factors. Numerous lines of evidence point to dominant causality from at-scale deployment (prior to self-sustaining diffusion) to cost reduction in this relationship. (3) Overall Innovation is cumulative, multi-faceted, and self-reinforcing in its direction (path-dependent). We conclude with brief observations on implications for modeling and policy. In interpreting these results, we suggest distinguishing the economics of active deployment, from more passive diffusion processes, and draw the following implications. There is a role for policy diversity and experimentation, with evaluation of potential gains from innovation in the broadest sense. Consequently, endogenising innovation in large-scale models is important for deriving policy-relevant conclusions. Finally, seeking to relate quantitative economic evaluation to the qualitative socio-technical transitions literatures could be a fruitful area for future research

The ethics of uncertainty for data subjects

Modern health data practices come with many practical uncertainties. In this paper, I argue that data subjects’ trust in the institutions and organizations that control their data, and their ability to know their own moral obligations in relation to their data, are undermined by significant uncertainties regarding the what, how, and who of mass data collection and analysis. I conclude by considering how proposals for managing situations of high uncertainty might be applied to this problem. These emphasize increasing organizational flexibility, knowledge, and capacity, and reducing hazard

A Tunable Lyot Filter at Prime Focus: a Method for Tracing Supercluster Scales at z ~ 1

Tunable narrow-band, emission-line surveys have begun to show the ease with which star forming galaxies can be identified in restricted redshift intervals to z ~ 5 with a 4m class telescope. These surveys have been carried out with imaging systems at the Cassegrain or Nasmyth focus and are therefore restricted to fields smaller than 10 arcmin. We now show that tunable narrowband imaging is possible over a 30 arcmin field with a high-performance Lyot filter placed directly in front of a CCD mosaic at the prime focus. Our design is intended for the f/3.3 prime focus of the AAT 3.9m, although similar devices can be envisaged for the Subaru 8m (f/2), Palomar 5m (f/3.4), VISTA 4m (f/6), Mayall 4m (f/2.6) or CFHT 3.6m (f/4). A modified Wynne doublet ensures sub-arcsecond performance over the field. In combination with the new Wide-Field Imaging 8K x 8K mosaic (WFI) at the AAT, the overall throughput (35%) of the system to unpolarised light is expected to be comparable to the TAURUS Tunable Filter (TTF). Unlike the TTF, the field is fully monochromatic and the instrumental profile has much better wing suppression. For targetted surveys of emission-line sources at z ~ 1, a low-resolution (R ~ 150 at 550nm) Lyot filter on a 4m telescope is expected to be comparable or superior to current instruments on 8-10m class telescopes. We demonstrate that the 30 arcmin field is well matched to superclusters at these redshifts such that large-scale structure should be directly observable.Comment: Astrophysical Journal, accepted. 53 pages, 16 figures, aaste

The effectiveness of protected areas in the conservation of species with changing geographical ranges

A cornerstone of conservation is the designation and management of protected areas (PAs): locations often under conservation management containing species of conservation concern, where some development and other detrimental influences are prevented or mitigated. However, the value of PAs for conserving biodiversity in the long term has been questioned given that species are changing their distributions in response to climatic change. There is a concern that PAs may become climatically unsuitable for those species that they were designated to protect, and may not be located appropriately to receive newly-colonizing species for which the climate is improving. In the present study, we analyze fine-scale distribution data from detailed resurveys of seven butterfly and 11 bird species in Great Britain aiming to examine any effect of PA designation in preventing extinctions and promoting colonizations. We found a positive effect of PA designation on species' persistence at trailing-edge warm range margins, although with a decreased magnitude at higher latitudes and altitudes. In addition, colonizations by range expanding species were more likely to occur on PAs even after altitude and latitude were taken into account. PAs will therefore remain an important strategy for conservation. The potential for PA management to mitigate the effects of climatic change for retracting species deserves further investigation

An increase in food production in Europe could dramatically affect farmland biodiversity

Conversion of semi-natural habitats, such as field margins, fallows, hedgerows, grassland, woodlots and forests, to agricultural land could increase agricultural production and help meet rising global food demand. Yet, the extent to which such habitat loss would impact biodiversity and wild species is unknown. Here we survey species richness for four taxa (vascular plants, earthworms, spiders, wild bees) and agricultural yield across a range of arable, grassland, mixed, horticulture, permanent crop, for organic and non-organic agricultural land on 169 farms across 10 European regions. We find that semi-natural habitats currently constitute 23% of land area with 49% of species unique to these habitats. We estimate that conversion of semi-natural land that achieves a 10% increase in agricultural production will have the greatest impact on biodiversity in arable systems and the least impact in grassland systems, with organic practices having better species retention than non-organic practices. Our findings will help inform sustainable agricultural development