Evaluating potential policies for the UK perennial energy crop market to achieve carbon abatement and deliver a source of low carbon electricity

The electricity infrastructure in many developed countries requires significant investment to meet ambitious carbon emissions reduction targets, and to bridge the gap between future supply and demand. Perennial energy crops have the potential to deliver electricity generation capacity while reducing carbon emissions, leading to polices supporting the adoption of these crops. In the UK, for example, support has been in place over the past decade, although uptake and the market development have so far been relatively modest. This paper combines biophysical and socio-economic process representations within an agent-based model (ABM), to offer insights into the dynamics of the development of the perennial energy crop market. Against a changing policy landscape, several potential policy scenarios are developed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the market in providing a source of low carbon renewable electricity, and to achieve carbon emissions abatement. The results demonstrate the key role of both energy and agricultural policies in stimulating the rate and level of uptake; consequently influencing the cost-effectiveness of these measures. The UK example shows that energy crops have the potential to deliver significant emissions abatement (up to 24 Mt carbon dioxide equivalent year-1, 4% of 2013 UK total emissions), and renewable electricity (up to 29 TWh year-1, 8% of UK electricity or 3% of primary energy demand), but a holistic assessment of related policies is needed to ensure that support is cost-effective. However, recent policy developments suggest that domestically grown perennial energy crops will only play a niche role (<0.2%) of the UK energy balance

Toward quantification of the feasible potential of land-based carbon dioxide removal

Global climate-change overshoot scenarios, where warming exceeds Paris Agreement limits before being brought back down, are highly dependent on land-based carbon dioxide removal (CDR). In the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), such scenarios are supported by optimistic global assessments of the technical and economic potential for land-based CDR. However, a further type of potential—the ‘‘feasible’’ potential, which includes socio-cultural, environmental, and institutional factors—is noted in the AR6 but not quantified. Here, we set out research frameworks to work toward quantification of this feasible potential. We first argue that quantifying the feasible potential will substantiallyreduce current assessed CDR potential. Second, we demonstrate how transdisciplinary methods are improving understanding of feasibility constraints on land-based CDR. Third, we explore frameworks for synthesizing these advances during the next IPCC assessment process. We conclude that the research community should carefully consider the use of techno-economic CDR assessments in evidence for policymaker

The relative importance of subjective and structural factors for individual adaptation to climate change by forest owners in Sweden

A growing body of literature argues that subjective factors can more accurately explain individual adaptation to climate change than objective measurers of adaptive capacity. Recent studies have shown that personal belief in climate change and affect are much better in explaining climate awareness and action than income, education or gender. This study focuses on the process of individual adaptation to climate change. It assesses and compares the influence of cognitive, experiential and structural factors on individuals’ views and intentions regarding climate change adaptation. Data from this study comes from a survey with 836 forest owners in Sweden. Ordinal and binary logistic regression was used to test hypotheses about the different factors. Results show that cognitive factors—namely personal level of trust in climate science, belief in the salience of climate change and risk assessment—are the only statistically significant factors that can directly explain individuals’ intention to adapt to climate change and their sense of urgency. Findings also suggest that structural or socio-demographic factors do not have a statistically significant influence on adaptation decision-making among Swedish forest owners. The study also offers valuable insights for communication interventions to promote adaptation. Findings strongly suggest that communication interventions should focus more strongly on building trust and addressing stakeholders’ individual needs and experiences

Restoring Degraded Lands

Land degradation continues to be an enormous challenge to human societies, reducing food security, emitting greenhouse gases and aerosols, driving the loss of biodiversity, polluting water, and undermining a wide range of ecosystem services beyond food supply and water and climate regulation. Climate change will exacerbate several degradation processes. Investment in diverse restoration efforts, including sustainable agricultural and forest land management, as well as land set aside for conservation wherever possible, will generate co-benefits for climate change mitigation and adaptation and morebroadly for human and societal well-being and the economy. This review highlights the magnitude of the degradation problem and some of the key challenges for ecological restoration. There are biophysical as well as societal limits to restoration. Better integrating policies to jointly address poverty, land degradation, and greenhouse gas emissions and removals is fundamental to reducing many existing barriers and contributing to climate-resilient sustainable development

Effects of climate-induced changes in isoprene emissions after the eruption of Mount Pinatubo

In the 1990s the rates of increase of greenhouse gas concentrations, most notably of methane, were observed to change, for reasons that have yet to be fully determined. This period included the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo and an El Nino warm event, both of which affect biogeochemical processes, by changes in temperature, precipitation and radiation. We examine the impact of these changes in climate on global isoprene emissions and the effect these climate dependent emissions have on the hydroxy radical, OH, the dominant sink for methane. We model a reduction of isoprene emissions in the early 1990s, with a maximum decrease of 40 Tg(C)/yr in late 1992 and early 1993, a change of 9%. This reduction is caused by the cooler, drier conditions following the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo. Isoprene emissions are reduced both directly, by changes in temperature and a soil moisture dependent suppression factor, and indirectly, through reductions in the total biomass. The reduction in isoprene emissions causes increases of tropospheric OH which lead to an increased sink for methane of up to 5 Tg(CH4)/year, comparable to estimated source changes over the time period studied. There remain many uncertainties in the emission and oxidation of isoprene which may affect the exact size of this effect, but its magnitude is large enough that it should remain important