COVID-19 and Conflict: Major Risks and Policy Responses.

The COVID-19 pandemic entails a medium- and long-run risk of heightened political conflict. In this short essay we distinguish four major consequences of COVID-19 that may fuel social tensions and political violence, namely i) spiking poverty, ii) education under stress, iii) potential for repression, and iv) reduced inter-dependence. After discussing them in turn, we will formulate policy recommendations on how to attenuate these risks

Knowledge is power: A theory of information, income and welfare spending

No voters cast their votes based on perfect information, but better educated and richer voters are on average better informed than others. We develop a model where the voting mistakes resulting from low political knowledge reduce the weight of poor voters, and cause parties to choose political platforms that are better aligned with the preferences of rich voters. In US election survey data, we find that income is more important in affecting voting behavior for more informed voters than for less informed voters, as predicted by the model. Further, in a panel of US states we find that when there is a strong correlation between income and political information, Congress representatives vote more conservatively, which is also in line with our theory.Political Economics

A low-loss, broadband antenna for efficient photon collection from a coherent spin in diamond

We report the creation of a low-loss, broadband optical antenna giving highly directed output from a coherent single spin in the solid-state. The device, the first solid-state realization of a dielectric antenna, is engineered for individual nitrogen vacancy (NV) electronic spins in diamond. We demonstrate a directionality close to 10. The photonic structure preserves the high spin coherence of single crystal diamond (T2>100us). The single photon count rate approaches a MHz facilitating efficient spin readout. We thus demonstrate a key enabling technology for quantum applications such as high-sensitivity magnetometry and long-distance spin entanglement.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures and supplementary information (5 pages, 8 figures). Comments welcome. Further information under http://www.quantum-sensing.physik.unibas.c

War Signals: A Theory of Trade, Trust and Conflict

We construct a dynamic theory of civil conflict hinging on inter-ethnic trust and trade. The model economy is inhabitated by two ethnic groups. Inter-ethnic trade requires imperfectly observed bilateral investments and one group has to form beliefs on the average propensity to trade of the other group. Since conflict disrupts trade, the onset of a conflict signals that the aggressor has a low propensity to trade. Agents observe the history of conflicts and update their beliefs over time, transmitting them to the next generation. The theory bears a set of testable predictions. First, war is a stochastic process whose frequency depends on the state of endogenous beliefs. Second, the probability of future conflicts increases after each conflict episode. Third, "accidental" conflicts that do not reflect economic fundamentals can lead to a permanent breakdown of trust, plunging a society into a vicious cycle of recurrent conflicts (a war trap). The incidence of conflict can be reduced by policies abating cultural barriers, fostering inter-ethnic trade and human capital, and shifting beliefs. Coercive peace policies such as peacekeeping forces or externally imposed regime changes have instead no persistent effects.human capital investment

Threat of taxation, stagnation and social unrest: Evidence from 19th century sicily

Taxation may trigger social unrest, as highlighted by historical examples. At the same time, tax income could boost state capacity which may, in turn, foster political stability. Under-standing the a priori ambiguous taxation-turmoil nexus is particularly relevant for low-income countries today - yet causal evidence on the topic is very scarce. Using a regres-sion discontinuity design, we exploit a unique policy experiment in 19th century Sicily to identify the effect of taxation on social unrest. It turns out that it is mostly the threat of taxation that may distort economic investment and ultimately result in greater political turmoil. (c) 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Networks in conflict: theory and evidence from the Great War of Africa

We study from both a theoretical and an empirical perspective how a network of military alliances and enmities affects the intensity of a conflict. The model combines elements from network theory and from the politico-economic theory of conflict. We obtain a closed-form characterization of the Nash equilibrium. Using the equilibrium conditions, we perform an empirical analysis using data on the Second Congo War, a conflict that involves many groups in a complex network of informal alliances and rivalries. The estimates of the fighting externalities are then used to infer the extent to which the conflict intensity can be reduced through (i) dismantling specific fighting groups involved in the conflict; (ii) weapon embargoes; (iii) interventions aimed at pacifying animosity among groups. Finally, with the aid of a random utility model, we study how policy shocks can induce a reshaping of the network structure

Successful Treatment of PulmonaryInvasive Aspergillosis with Voriconazole in Patients who FailedConventional Therapy

Abstract.: Background: The incidence of fungal infections, including those due to Aspergillosis species has continued to increase in recent years. Invasive aspergillosis remains an important cause of morbidity and mortality, despite therapeutics interventions. Patients and Methods: We reported five cases of invasive pulmonary aspergillosis treated with voriconazole failing to respond to conventional treatments. Results: The clinical and radiological resolution of pulmonary aspergillosis reported in these cases following therapy with voriconazole is remarkable, considering the infections had proved refractory to standard antifungal therapies. Long-term therapy (in two cases ≥ 1 year, in one case 6 months) was very well tolerated by patients who were unable to tolerate other antifungal agents. Conclusion: Therapy with voriconazole offers a new therapeutic option for otherwise difficult-to-treat infections and the potential to significantly improve the management of Aspergillosis infection

Detection of Pneumocystis jirovecii by Two Staining Methods and Two Quantitative PCR Assays

Abstract : Background: : Pneumocystis jirovecii is an opportunistic pathogen that causes pneumonia, particularly in immunodeficient hosts. Materials and Methods: : We retrospectively compared the results obtained by two staining methods (toluidine blue and calcofluor white) and two quantitative (q) real time PCR assays for the detection of P. jirovecii in bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) specimens. For the qPCR assays, we used newly selected probes and primers targeting the Kex-1 gene, which codes for a serine endoprotease, and compared the results to those from the published assay targeting the β-tubulin gene. Results: : A total of 1,843 BAL specimens were analyzed microscopically in parallel, and 74 (4.0%) were found to be positive with both stains, 23 (1.2%) were positive only with the toluidine blue stain, and six (0.3%) only with the calcofluor stain (p = 0.003). Of these, a selection of 186 consecutive BAL fluid samples were tested by qPCR using the respective different primer pairs. 21 of the 186 samples (11.3%) were microscopically positive with both stains as well as qPCR positive after 18-31 cycles (corresponding to 5.24 × 106 copies/ml to 640 copies/ml of native BAL) using the Kex-1 primer pair and between 21-33 cycles using the β-tubulin assay. A good correlation between semi-quantitative microscopy and the number of PCR cycles needed for a positive signal was noted. Of the remaining 165 samples, 153 (82%) were both microscopically and PCR negative (PCR with the two sets of primers); the remaining 12 samples (7%) were Kex-1-based PCR positive (from cycles 33 to 41, corresponding to 160 copies/ml of BAL or less) but microscopically negative. Of these latter samples, ten (6%) were also positive (from cycles 34 to 38) with the primers targeting the β-tubulin gene. Taking microscopy as a reference, the sensitivity of qPCR targeting the Kex-1 gene was 100%, and the specificity was 92.4%. Conclusion: : The sensitive qPCR analysis proved to be a rapid and reliable method to detect P. jirovecii in BA

Can power-sharing foster peace? Evidence from Northern Ireland*

In the absence of power-sharing, minority groups in opposition have powerful incentives to substitute the ballot with the bullet. In contrast, when power is shared among all major groups in society, the relative gains of sticking to electoral politics are larger for minority groups. After making the theoretical argument, we provide in the current paper an empirical analysis of the impact of power-sharing at the local level, making use of fine-grained data from Northern Ireland’s 26 local district councils over the 1973–2001 period. We find that power-sharing has a sizable and robust conflict-reducing impact