SIMULATING OZONE EFFECTS ON FOREST PRODUCTIVITY: INTERACTIONS AMONG LEAF‐, CANOPY‐, AND STAND‐LEVEL PROCESSES

Ozone pollution in the lower atmosphere is known to have adverse effects on forest vegetation, but the degree to which mature forests are impacted has been very difficult to assess directly. In this study, we combined leaf‐level ozone response data from independent ozone fumigation studies with a forest ecosystem model in order simulate the effects of ambient ozone on mature hardwood forests. Reductions in leaf carbon gain were determined as a linear function of ozone flux to the leaf interior, calculated as the product of ozone concentration and leaf stomatal conductance. This relationship was applied to individual canopy layers within the model in order to allow interaction with stand‐ and canopy‐level factors such as light attenuation, leaf morphology, soil water limitations, and vertical ozone gradients. The resulting model was applied to 64 locations across the northeastern United States using ambient ozone data from 1987 to 1992. Predicted declines in annual net primary production ranged from 3 to 16% with greatest reductions in southern portions of the region where ozone levels were highest, and on soils with high water‐holding capacity where drought stress was absent. Reductions in predicted wood growth were slightly greater (3–22%) because wood is a lower carbon allocation priority in the model than leaf and root growth. Interannual variation in predicted ozone effects was small due to concurrent fluctuations in ozone and climate. Periods of high ozone often coincided with hot, dry weather conditions, causing reduced stomatal conductance and ozone uptake. Within‐canopy ozone concentration gradients had little effect on predicted growth reductions because concentrations remained high through upper canopy layers where net carbon assimilation and ozone uptake were greatest. Sensitivity analyses indicate a trade‐off between model sensitivity to available soil water and foliar nitrogen and demonstrate uncertainties regarding several assumptions used in the model. Uncertainties surrounding ozone effects on stomatal function and plant water use efficiency were found to have important implications on current predictions. Field measurements of ozone effects on mature forests will be needed before the accuracy of model predictions can be fully assessed

Near-surface remote sensing of spatial and temporal variation in canopy phenology

There is a need to document how plant phenology is responding to global change factors, particularly warming trends. “Near-surface” remote sensing, using radiometric instruments or imaging sensors, has great potential to improve phenological monitoring because automated observations can be made at high temporal frequency. Here we build on previous work and show how inexpensive, networked digital cameras (“webcams”) can be used to document spatial and temporal variation in the spring and autumn phenology of forest canopies. We use two years of imagery from a deciduous, northern hardwood site, and one year of imagery from a coniferous, boreal transition site. A quantitative signal is obtained by splitting images into separate red, green, and blue color channels and calculating the relative brightness of each channel for “regions of interest” within each image. We put the observed phenological signal in context by relating it to seasonal patterns of gross primary productivity, inferred from eddy covariance measurements of surface–atmosphere CO2 exchange. We show that spring increases, and autumn decreases, in canopy greenness can be detected in both deciduous and coniferous stands. In deciduous stands, an autumn red peak is also observed. The timing and rate of spring development and autumn senescence varies across the canopy, with greater variability in autumn than spring. Interannual variation in phenology can be detected both visually and quantitatively; delayed spring onset in 2007 compared to 2006 is related to a prolonged cold spell from day 85 to day 110. This work lays the foundation for regional- to continental-scale camera-based monitoring of phenology at network observatory sites, e.g., National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) or AmeriFlux

Modeling physical and chemical climate of the northeastern United States for a geographic information system

A model of physical and chemical climate was developed for New York and New England that can be used in a GIs for integration with ecosystem models. The variables included are monthly average maximum and minimum daily temperatures, precipitation, humidity, and solar radiation, as well as annual atmospheric deposition of sulfur and nitrogen. Equations generated from regional data bases were combined with a digital elevation model of the region to generate digital coverages of each variable

Nitrogen cycling, forest canopy reflectance, and emergent properties of ecosystems

In Ollinger et al. (1), we reported that mass-based concentrations of nitrogen in forest canopies (%N) are positively associated with whole-canopy photosynthetic capacity and canopy shortwave albedo in temperate and boreal forests, the latter result stemming from a positive correlation between %N and canopy near infrared (NIR) reflectance. This finding is intriguing because a functional link between %N and NIR reflectance could indicate an influence of nitrogen cycling on surface energy exchange, and could provide a means for estimating %N using broad-band satellite sensors

DIRECT ESTIMATION OF ABOVEGROUND FOREST PRODUCTIVITY THROUGH HYPERSPECTRAL REMOTE SENSING OF CANOPY NITROGEN

The concentration of nitrogen in foliage has been related to rates of net photosynthesis across a wide range of plant species and functional groups and thus represents a simple and biologically meaningful link between terrestrial cycles of carbon and nitrogen. Although foliar N is used by ecosystem models to predict rates of leaf‐level photosynthesis, it has rarely been examined as a direct scalar to stand‐level carbon gain. Establishment of such relationships would greatly simplify the nature of forest C and N linkages, enhancing our ability to derive estimates of forest productivity at landscape to regional scales. Here, we report on a highly predictive relationship between whole‐canopy nitrogen concentration and aboveground forest productivity in diverse forested stands of varying age and species composition across the 360 000‐ha White Mountain National Forest, New Hampshire, USA. We also demonstrate that hyperspectral remote sensing can be used to estimate foliar N concentration, and hence forest production across a large number of contiguous images. Together these data suggest that canopy‐level N concentration is an important correlate of productivity in these forested systems, and that imaging spectrometry of canopy N can provide direct estimates of forest productivity across large landscapes

Development of scenarios for land cover, population density, impervious cover, and conservation in New Hampshire, 2010–2100

Future changes in ecosystem services will depend heavily on changes in land cover and land use, which, in turn, are shaped by human activities. Given the challenges of predicting long-term changes in human behaviors and activities, scenarios provide a framework for simulating the long-term consequences of land-cover change on ecosystem function. As input for process-based models of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystem function, we developed scenarios for land cover, population density, and impervious cover for the state of New Hampshire for 2020–2100. Key drivers of change were identified through information gathered from six sources: historical trends, existing plans relating to New Hampshire’s land-cover future, surveys, existing population scenarios, key informant interviews with diverse stakeholders, and input from subject-matter experts. Scenarios were developed in parallel with information gathering, with details added iteratively as new questions emerged. The final scenarios span a continuum from spatially dispersed development with a low value placed on ecosystem services (Backyard Amenities) to concentrated development with a high value placed on ecosystem services (the Community Amenities family). The Community family includes two population scenarios (Large Community and Small Community), to be combined with two scenarios for land cover (Protection of Wildlands and Promotion of Local Food), producing combinations that bring the total number of scenarios to six. Between Backyard Amenities and Community Amenities is a scenario based on linear extrapolations of current trends (Linear Trends). Custom models were used to simulate decadal change in land cover, population density, and impervious cover. We present raster maps and proportion of impervious cover for HUC10 watersheds under each scenario and discuss the trade-offs of our translation and modeling approach within the context of contemporary scenario projects

Algal culture studies related to a Closed Ecological Life Support System (CELSS)

In many respects, algae would be the ideal plant component for a biologically based controlled life support system, since they are eminently suited to the closely coupled functions of atmosphere regeneration and food production. Scenedesmus obliquus and Spirulina platensis were grown in three continuous culture apparatuses. Culture vessels their operation and relative merits are described. Both light and nitrogen utilization efficiency are examined. Long term culture issues are detailed and a discussion of a plasmid search in Spirulina is included

An Optimal Algorithm for Tiling the Plane with a Translated Polyomino

We give a $O(n)$-time algorithm for determining whether translations of a polyomino with $n$ edges can tile the plane. The algorithm is also a $O(n)$-time algorithm for enumerating all such tilings that are also regular, and we prove that at most $\Theta(n)$ such tilings exist.Comment: In proceedings of ISAAC 201

Predicting the effects of climate change on water yield and forest production in the northeastern United States

Rapid and simultaneous changes in temperature, precipitation and the atmospheric concentration of CO2 are predicted to occur over the next century. Simple, well-validated models of ecosystem function are required to predict the effects of these changes. This paper describes an improved version of a forest carbon and water balance model (PnET-II) and the application of the model to predict stand- and regional-level effects of changes in temperature, precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentration. PnET-II is a simple, generalized, monthly time-step model of water and carbon balances (gross and net) driven by nitrogen availability as expressed through foliar N concentration. Improvements from the original model include a complete carbon balance and improvements in the prediction of canopy phenology, as well as in the computation of canopy structure and photosynthesis. The model was parameterized and run for 4 forest/site combinations and validated against available data for water yield, gross and net carbon exchange and biomass production. The validation exercise suggests that the determination of actual water availability to stands and the occurrence or non-occurrence of soil-based water stress are critical to accurate modeling of forest net primary production (NPP) and net ecosystem production (NEP). The model was then run for the entire NewEngland/New York (USA) region using a 1 km resolution geographic information system. Predicted long-term NEP ranged from -85 to +275 g C m-2 yr-1 for the 4 forest/site combinations, and from -150 to 350 g C m-2 yr-1 for the region, with a regional average of 76 g C m-2 yr-1. A combination of increased temperature (+6*C), decreased precipitation (-15%) and increased water use efficiency (2x, due to doubling of CO2) resulted generally in increases in NPP and decreases in water yield over the region

Quasiperiodicity and non-computability in tilings

We study tilings of the plane that combine strong properties of different nature: combinatorial and algorithmic. We prove existence of a tile set that accepts only quasiperiodic and non-recursive tilings. Our construction is based on the fixed point construction; we improve this general technique and make it enforce the property of local regularity of tilings needed for quasiperiodicity. We prove also a stronger result: any effectively closed set can be recursively transformed into a tile set so that the Turing degrees of the resulted tilings consists exactly of the upper cone based on the Turing degrees of the later.Comment: v3: the version accepted to MFCS 201