Asteroid Belt Meteoroid Hazard Study

Mathematical models for probability of successful traverse of asteroid belt or zero penetration of spacecraft shiel

War and the Reelection Motive: Examining the Effect of Term Limits

This article investigates the relationship between term limits and international conflict. Theories of political survival and diversionary war both imply term limits should play a role in international relations, whereas “permanent referendum theory,” largely motivated by work in American politics, suggests otherwise. Drawing on these theories, we formulate and test competing hypotheses regarding term limits and international crises. Using dyadic militarized interstate disputes data and information on forty-eight democracies with term limits, we uncover strong evidence to support the claim that leaders reaching final terms in office are more likely to initiate conflict than those still subject to reelection. Moreover, we find that the likelihood of conflict initiation is significantly higher during times of recession, but only in the absence of binding term limits. While binding electoral terms and economic downturns are both independently associated with increased levels of conflict initiation, in concert their conditional effects actually counteract each other

Swine flu: lessons we need to learn from our global experience

There are important lessons to be learnt from the recent ‘Swine Flu’ pandemic. Before we call it a pandemic, we need to have appropriate trigger points that involve not only the spread of the virus but also its level of virulence. This was not done for H1N1 (swine flu). We need to ensure that we improve the techniques used in trying to decrease the spread of infection—both in the community and within our hospitals. This means improved infection control and hygiene, and the use of masks, alcohol hand rubs and so on. We also need to have a different approach to vaccines. Effective vaccines were produced only after the epidemic had passed and therefore had relatively little impact in preventing many infections. Mass population strategies involving vaccines and antivirals also misused large amounts of scarce medical resources

Once is an Instance, Twice is a Hobby: Multiple Optical and Near-Infrared Changing-Look Events in NGC 5273

NGC 5273 is a known optical and X-ray variable AGN. We analyze new and archival IR, optical, UV, and X-ray data in order to characterize its long-term variability from 2000 to 2022. At least one changing-look event occurred between 2011 and 2014, when the AGN changed from a Type 1.8/1.9 Seyfert to a Type 1. It then faded considerably at all wavelengths, followed by a dramatic but slow increase in UV/optical brightness between 2021 and 2022. We propose that NGC 5273 underwent multiple changing-look events between 2000 and 2022 -- starting as a Type 1.8/1.9, NGC 5273 changes-look to a Type 1 only temporarily in 2002 and again in 2014, reverting back to a Type 1.8/1.9 by 2005 and 2017, respectively. In 2022, it is again a Type 1 Seyfert with optical and NIR broad emission lines. We characterize the changing-look events and their connection to the dynamic accretion and radiative processes in NGC 5273.Comment: 18 pages, 13 figures, 4 tables, submitting to MNRA

The blue supergiant progenitor of the Supernova Imposter at 2019krl

Extensive archival Hubble Space Telescope, Spitzer Space Telescope, and Large Binocular Telescope imaging of the recent intermediate-luminosity transient, AT 2019krl in M74, reveal a bright optical and mid-infrared progenitor star. While the optical peak of the event was missed, a peak was detected in the infrared with an absolute magnitude of M 4.5 μm = -18.4 mag, leading us to infer a visual-wavelength peak absolute magnitude of -13.5 to -14.5. The pre-discovery light curve indicated no outbursts over the previous 16 yr. The colors, magnitudes, and inferred temperatures of the progenitor best match a 13-14 M o˙ yellow or blue supergiant (BSG) if only foreground extinction is taken into account, or a hotter and more massive star if any additional local extinction is included. A pre-eruption spectrum of the star reveals strong Hα and [N ii] emission with wings extending to 2000 km s-1. The post-eruption spectrum is fairly flat and featureless with only Hα, Na i D, [Ca ii], and the Ca ii triplet in emission. As in many previous intermediate-luminosity transients, AT 2019krl shows remarkable observational similarities to luminous blue variable (LBV) giant eruptions, SN 2008S-like events, and massive-star mergers. However, the information about the pre-eruption star favors either a relatively unobscured BSG or a more extinguished LBV with M > 20 Mo˙ likely viewed pole-on.Fil: Andrews, Jennifer E.. University of Arizona; Estados UnidosFil: Jencson, Jacob E.. University of Arizona; Estados UnidosFil: Van Dyk, Schuyler D.. Spitzer Science Center; Estados UnidosFil: Smith, Nathan. University of Arizona; Estados UnidosFil: Neustadt, Jack M. M.. Ohio State University; Estados UnidosFil: Sand, David J.. University of Arizona; Estados UnidosFil: Kreckel, K.. Astronomisches Rechen-institut Heidelberg; AlemaniaFil: Kochanek, C.S.. Ohio State University; Estados UnidosFil: Valenti, S.. University of California at Davis; Estados UnidosFil: Strader, Jay. Michigan State University; Estados UnidosFil: Bersten, Melina Cecilia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata. Instituto de Astrofísica La Plata. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Astronómicas y Geofísicas. Instituto de Astrofísica La Plata; ArgentinaFil: Blanc, Guillermo A.. Universidad de Chile; ChileFil: Bostroem, K. Azalee. University of California at Davis; Estados UnidosFil: Brink, Thomas G.. University of California at Berkeley; Estados UnidosFil: Emsellem, Eric. European Southern Observatory; AlemaniaFil: Filippenko, Alexei V.. University of California at Berkeley; Estados UnidosFil: Folatelli, Gaston. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata. Instituto de Astrofísica La Plata. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Astronómicas y Geofísicas. Instituto de Astrofísica La Plata; ArgentinaFil: Kasliwal, Mansi. California Institute of Technology; Estados UnidosFil: Masci, Frank J.. Spitzer Science Center; Estados UnidosFil: McElroy, Rebecca. The University Of Sydney; AustraliaFil: Milisavljevic, Dan. Purdue University; Estados UnidosFil: Santoro, Francesco. Max Planck Institut für Astronomie; AlemaniaFil: Szalai, Tamás. University of Szeged; Hungrí

Robustness of systems with uncertainties in the input

In B. R. Barmish (IEEE Trans. Automat. ControlAC-22, No. 7 (1977) 123, 124; AC-24, No. 6 (1979), 921-926) and B. R. Barmish and Y. H. Lin ("Proceedings of the 7th IFAC World Congress, Helsinki 1978") a new notion of "robustness" was defined for a class of dynamical systems having uncertainty in the input-output relationship. This paper generalizes the results in the above-mentioned references in two fundamental ways: (i) We make significantly less restrictive hypotheses about the manner in which the uncertain parameters enter the system model. Unlike the multiplicative structure assumed in previous work, we study a far more general class of nonlinear integral flows, (ii) We remove the restriction that the admissible input set be compact. The appropriate notion to investigate in this framework is seen to be that of approximate robustness. Roughly speaking, an approximately robust system is one for which the output can be guaranteed to lie "[var epsilon]-close" to a prespecified set at some future time T > 0. This guarantee must hold for all admissible (possibly time-varying) variations in the values of the uncertain parameters. The principal result of this paper is a necessary and sufficient condition for approximate robustness. To "test" this condition, one must solve a finite-dimensional optimization problem over a compact domain, the unit simplex. Such a result is tantamount to a major reduction in the complexity of the problem; i.e., the original robustness problem which is infinite-dimensional admits a finite-dimensional parameterization. It is also shown how this theory specializes to the existing theory of Barmish and Barmish and Lin under the imposition of additional assumptions. A number of illustrative examples and special cases are presented. A detailed computer implementation of the theory is also discussed.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/24205/1/0000464.pd

Type-Ia Supernova Rates to Redshift 2.4 from Clash: The Cluster Lensing and Supernova Survey with Hubble

We present the supernova (SN) sample and Type-Ia SN (SN Ia) rates from the Cluster Lensing And Supernova survey with Hubble (CLASH). Using the Advanced Camera for Surveys and the Wide Field Camera 3 on the Hubble Space Telescope (HST), we have imaged 25 galaxy-cluster fields and parallel fields of non-cluster galaxies. We report a sample of 27 SNe discovered in the parallel fields. Of these SNe, approximately 13 are classified as SN Ia candidates, including four SN Ia candidates at redshifts z greater than 1.2.We measure volumetric SN Ia rates to redshift 1.8 and add the first upper limit on the SN Ia rate in the range z greater than 1.8 and less than 2.4. The results are consistent with the rates measured by the HST/ GOODS and Subaru Deep Field SN surveys.We model these results together with previous measurements at z less than 1 from the literature. The best-fitting SN Ia delay-time distribution (DTD; the distribution of times that elapse between a short burst of star formation and subsequent SN Ia explosions) is a power law with an index of 1.00 (+0.06(0.09))/(-0.06(0.10)) (statistical) (+0.12/0.08) (systematic), where the statistical uncertainty is a result of the 68% and 95% (in parentheses) statistical uncertainties reported for the various SN Ia rates (from this work and from the literature), and the systematic uncertainty reflects the range of possible cosmic star-formation histories. We also test DTD models produced by an assortment of published binary population synthesis (BPS) simulations. The shapes of all BPS double-degenerate DTDs are consistent with the volumetric SN Ia measurements, when the DTD models are scaled up by factors of 3-9. In contrast, all BPS single-degenerate DTDs are ruled out by the measurements at greater than 99% significance level