Empirical Industrial Organization: A Progress Report

The field of Industrial Organization has made dramatic advances over the last few decades in developing empirical methods for analyzing imperfect competition and the organization of markets. We describe the motivation for these developments and some of the successes. We also discuss the relative emphasis that applied work in the field has placed on economic theory relative to statistical research design, and the possibility that a focus on methodological innovation has crowded out applications. We offer some suggestions about how the field may progress in coming years.

Learning from Seller Experiments in Online Markets

The internet has dramatically reduced the cost of varying prices, displays and information provided to consumers, facilitating both active and passive experimentation. We document the prevalence of targeted pricing and auction design variation on eBay, and identify hundreds of thousands of experiments conducted by sellers across a wide array of retail products. We show how this type of data can be used to address questions about consumer behavior and market outcomes, and provide illustrative results on price dispersion, the frequency of over-bidding, the choice of reserve prices, "buy now" options and other auction design parameters, and on consumer sensitivity to shipping fees. We argue that leveraging the experiments of market participants takes advantage of the scale and heterogeneity of online markets and can be a powerful approach for testing and measurement.

Search for the Production of Element 112 in the 48Ca + 238U Reaction

We have searched for the production of element 112 in the reaction of 231 MeV 48Ca with 238U. We have not observed any events with a "one event" upper limit cross section of 1.6 pb for EVR-fission events and 1.8 pb for EVR-alpha events.Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures, submitted to Phys. Rev.

Consistency of Social Interactions in Sooty Mangabeys and Chimpanzees

Predictability of social interactions can be an important measure for the social complexity of an animal group. Predictability is partially dependent on how consistent interaction patterns are over time: does the behavior on 1 day explain the behavior on another? We developed a consistency measure that serves two functions: detecting which interaction types in a dataset are so inconsistent that including them in further analyses risks introducing unexplained error; and comparatively quantifying differences in consistency within and between animal groups. We applied the consistency measure to simulated data and field data for one group of sooty mangabeys (Cercocebus atys atys) and to groups of Western chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes verus) in the Taï National Park, Côte d'Ivoire, to test its properties and compare consistency across groups. The consistency measures successfully identified interaction types whose low internal consistency would likely create analytical problems. Species-level differences in consistency were less pronounced than differences within groups: in all groups, aggression and dominance interactions were the most consistent, followed by grooming; spatial proximity at different levels was much less consistent than directed interactions. Our consistency measure can facilitate decision making of researchers wondering whether to include interaction types in their analyses or social networks and allows us to compare interaction types within and between species regarding their predictability.Peer Reviewe

Identification of pre-leukaemic haematopoietic stem cells in acute leukaemia.

In acute myeloid leukaemia (AML), the cell of origin, nature and biological consequences of initiating lesions, and order of subsequent mutations remain poorly understood, as AML is typically diagnosed without observation of a pre-leukaemic phase. Here, highly purified haematopoietic stem cells (HSCs), progenitor and mature cell fractions from the blood of AML patients were found to contain recurrent DNMT3A mutations (DNMT3A(mut)) at high allele frequency, but without coincident NPM1 mutations (NPM1c) present in AML blasts. DNMT3A(mut)-bearing HSCs showed a multilineage repopulation advantage over non-mutated HSCs in xenografts, establishing their identity as pre-leukaemic HSCs. Pre-leukaemic HSCs were found in remission samples, indicating that they survive chemotherapy. Therefore DNMT3A(mut) arises early in AML evolution, probably in HSCs, leading to a clonally expanded pool of pre-leukaemic HSCs from which AML evolves. Our findings provide a paradigm for the detection and treatment of pre-leukaemic clones before the acquisition of additional genetic lesions engenders greater therapeutic resistance

Shared community effects and the non-genetic maternal environment shape cortisol levels in wild chimpanzees

Mechanisms of inheritance remain poorly defined for many fitness-mediating traits, especially in long-lived animals with protracted development. Using 6,123 urinary samples from 170 wild chimpanzees, we examined the contributions of genetics, non-genetic maternal effects, and shared community effects on variation in cortisol levels, an established predictor of survival in long-lived primates. Despite evidence for consistent individual variation in cortisol levels across years, between-group effects were more influential and made an overwhelming contribution to variation in this trait. Focusing on within-group variation, non-genetic maternal effects accounted for 8% of the individual differences in average cortisol levels, significantly more than that attributable to genetic factors, which was indistinguishable from zero. These maternal effects are consistent with a primary role of a shared environment in shaping physiology. For chimpanzees, and perhaps other species with long life histories, community and maternal effects appear more relevant than genetic inheritance in shaping key physiological traits.Additional co-authors: Klaus Zuberbuehler, Linda Vigilant, Tobias Deschner, Roman M. Wittig & Catherine Crockfor

The scientific payload of the Ultraviolet Transient Astronomy Satellite (ULTRASAT)

The Ultraviolet Transient Astronomy Satellite (ULTRASAT) is a space-borne near UV telescope with an unprecedented large field of view (200 sq. deg.). The mission, led by the Weizmann Institute of Science and the Israel Space Agency in collaboration with DESY (Helmholtz association, Germany) and NASA (USA), is fully funded and expected to be launched to a geostationary transfer orbit in Q2/3 of 2025. With a grasp 300 times larger than GALEX, the most sensitive UV satellite to date, ULTRASAT will revolutionize our understanding of the hot transient universe, as well as of flaring galactic sources. We describe the mission payload, the optical design and the choice of materials allowing us to achieve a point spread function of ~10arcsec across the FoV, and the detector assembly. We detail the mitigation techniques implemented to suppress out-of-band flux and reduce stray light, detector properties including measured quantum efficiency of scout (prototype) detectors, and expected performance (limiting magnitude) for various objects.Comment: Presented in the SPIE Astronomical Telescopes + Instrumentation 202

Ashkenazi Jewish Centenarians Do Not Demonstrate Enrichment in Mitochondrial Haplogroup J

BACKGROUND: Association of mitochondrial haplogroup J with longevity has been reported in several population subgroups. While studies from northern Italy and Finland, have described a higher frequency of haplogroup J among centenarians in comparison to non-centenarian, several other studies could not replicate these results and suggested various explanations for the discrepancy. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We have evaluated haplogroup frequencies among Ashkenazi Jewish centenarians using two different sets of matched controls. No difference was observed in the haplogroup J frequencies between the centenarians or either matched control group, despite adequate statistical power to detect such a difference. Furthermore, the lack of association was robust to population substructure in the Ashkenazi Jewish population. Given this discrepancy with the previous reported associations in the northern Italian and the Finnish populations, we conducted re-analysis of these previously published data, which supported one of several possible explanations: i) inadequate matching of cases and controls; ii) inadequate adjustment for multiple comparison testing; iii) cryptic population stratification. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: There does not exist a universal association of mitochondrial haplogroup J with longevity across all population groups. Reported associations in specialized populations may reflect genetic or other interactions specific to those populations or else cryptic confounding influences, such as inadequate matching attributable to population substructure, which are of general relevance to all studies of the possible association of mitochondrial DNA haplogroups with common complex phenotypes