Recalibration of the delirium prediction model for ICU patients (PRE-DELIRIC): a multinational observational study

Purpose Recalibration and determining discriminative power, internationally, of the existing delirium prediction model (PRE-DELIRIC) for intensive care patients. Methods A prospective multicenter cohort study was performed in eight intensive care units (ICUs) in six countries. The ten predictors (age, APACHE-II, urgent and admission category, infection, coma, sedation, morphine use, urea level, metabolic acidosis) were collected within 24 h after ICU admission. The confusion assessment method for the intensive care unit (CAM-ICU) was used to identify ICU delirium. CAM-ICU screening compliance and inter-rater reliability measurements were used to secure the quality of the data. Results A total of 2,852 adult ICU patients were screened of which 1,824 (64 %) were eligible for the study. Main reasons for exclusion were length of stay <1 day (19.1 %) and sustained coma (4.1 %). CAM-ICU compliance was mean (SD) 82 ± 16 % and inter-rater reliability 0.87 ± 0.17. The median delirium incidence was 22.5 % (IQR 12.8–36.6 %). Although the incidence of all ten predictors differed significantly between centers, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve of the eight participating centers remained good: 0.77 (95 % CI 0.74–0.79). The linear predictor and intercept of the prediction rule were adjusted and resulted in improved re-calibration of the PRE-DELIRIC model. Conclusions In this multinational study, we recalibrated the PRE-DELIRIC model. Despite differences in the incidence of predictors between the centers in the different countries, the performance of the PRE-DELIRIC-model remained good. Following validation of the PRE-DELIRIC model, it may facilitate implementation of strategies to prevent delirium and aid improvements in delirium management of ICU patients

GM and KM immunoglobulin allotypes in the Galician population: new insights into the peopling of the Iberian Peninsula

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The current genetic structure of Iberian populations has presumably been affected by the complex orography of its territory, the different people and civilizations that settled there, its ancient and complex history, the diverse and persistent sociocultural patterns in its different regions, and also by the effects of the Iberian Peninsula representing a refugium area after the last glacial maximum. This paper presents the first data on <it>GM </it>and <it>KM </it>immunoglobulin allotypes in the Galician population and, thus, provides further insights into the extent of genetic diversity in populations settled in the geographic extremes of the Cantabrian region of northern Spain. Furthermore, the genetic relationships of Galicians with other European populations have been investigated.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Galician population shows a genetic profile for <it>GM </it>haplotypes that is defined by the high presence of the European Mediterranean <it>GM</it>*<it>3 23 5* </it>haplotype, and the relatively high incidence of the African marker <it>GM*1,17 23' 5*</it>. Data based on comparisons between Galician and other Spanish populations (mainly from the north of the peninsula) reveal a poor correlation between geographic and genetic distances (<it>r </it>= 0.30, <it>P </it>= 0.105), a noticeable but variable genetic distances between Galician and Basque subpopulations, and a rather close genetic affinity between Galicia and Valencia, populations which are geographically separated by a long distance and have quite dissimilar cultures and histories. Interestingly, Galicia occupies a central position in the European genetic map, despite being geographically placed at one extreme of the European continent, while displaying a close genetic proximity to Portugal, a finding that is consistent with their shared histories over centuries.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>These findings suggest that the population of Galicia is the result of a relatively balanced mixture of European populations or of the ancestral populations that gave rise to them. This would support the importance of the migratory movements that have taken place in Europe over the course of recent human history and their effects on the European genetic landscape.</p

Prophylactic Melatonin for Delirium in Intensive Care (Pro-MEDIC): Study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

Background: Delirium is an acute state of brain dysfunction characterised by fluctuating inattention and cognitive disturbances, usually due to illness. It occurs commonly in the intensive care unit (ICU), and it is associated with greater morbidity and mortality. It is likely that disturbances of sleep and of the day-night cycle play a significant role. Melatonin is a naturally occurring, safe and cheap hormone that can be administered to improve sleep. The main aim of this trial will be to determine whether prophylactic melatonin administered to critically ill adults, when compared with placebo, decreases the rate of delirium. Methods: This trial will be a multi-centre, randomised, placebo-controlled study conducted in closed ICUs in Australia. Our aim is to enrol 850 adult patients with an expected ICU length of stay (LOS) of 72h or more. Eligible patients for whom there is consent will be randomised to receive melatonin 4mg enterally or placebo in a 1:1 ratio according to a computer-generated randomisation list, stratified by site. The study drug will be indistinguishable from placebo. Patients, doctors, nurses, investigators and statisticians will be blinded. Melatonin or placebo will be administered once per day at 21:00 until ICU discharge or 14days after enrolment, whichever occurs first. Trained staff will assess patients twice daily to determine the presence or absence of delirium using the Confusion Assessment Method for the ICU score. Data will also be collected on demographics, the overall prevalence of delirium, duration and severity of delirium, sleep quality, participation in physiotherapy sessions, ICU and hospital LOS, morbidity and mortality, and healthcare costs. A subgroup of 100 patients will undergo polysomnographic testing to further evaluate the quality of sleep. Discussion: Delirium is a significant issue in ICU because of its frequency and associated poorer outcomes. This trial will be the largest evaluation of melatonin as a prophylactic agent to prevent delirium in the critically ill population. This study will also provide one of the largest series of polysomnographic testing done in ICU. Trial registration: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trial Registry (ANZCTR) number: ACTRN12616000436471. Registered on 20 December 2015

Diagnostic Performance of Delirium Assessment Tools in Critically Ill Patients: A Systematic Review and Meta‐Analysis

Background Critical care nurses are in the best position to detect and monitor delirium in critically ill patients. Therefore, an optimum delirium assessment tool with strong evidence should be identified with critical care nurses to perform in the daily assessment. Aim To evaluate and compare the diagnostic performance of delirium assessment tools in diagnosing delirium in critically ill patients. Methods We searched five electronic databases including the Cochrane Library, PubMed, Embase, CINAHL, and a Chinese database for eligible diagnostic studies published in English or Mandarin up to December 2018. This diagnostic test accuracy meta‐analysis was limited to studies in intensive care unit (ICU) settings, using the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) as a standard reference to test the accuracy of delirium assessment tools. Eligible studies were critically appraised by two investigators independently. The summary of evidence was conducted for pooling and comparing diagnostic accuracy by a bivariate random effects meta‐analysis model. The pooled sensitivities and specificities, summary receiver operating characteristic curve (sROC), the area under the curve (AUC), and diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) were calculated and plotted. The possibility of publication bias was assessed by Deeks’ funnel plot. Data Synthesis We identified and evaluated 23 and 8 articles focused on CAM‐ICU and ICDSC, respectively. The summary sensitivities of 0.85 and 0.87, and summary specificities of 0.95 and 0.91 were found for CAM‐ICU and ICDSC, respectively. The AUC of the CAM‐ICU was 0.96 (95% CI, 0.94–0.98), with DOR at 99 (95% CI, 55–177). The AUC of the ICDSC was 0.95 (95% CI, 0.92–0.96), and the DOR was 65 (95% CI, 27–153). Linking Evidence to Action CAM‐ICU demonstrated higher diagnostic test accuracy and is recommended as the optimal delirium assessment tool. However, the results should be interpreted with caution due to the between‐study heterogeneity of this diagnostic test accuracy meta‐analysis