Harold Jeffreys's Theory of Probability Revisited

Published exactly seventy years ago, Jeffreys's Theory of Probability (1939) has had a unique impact on the Bayesian community and is now considered to be one of the main classics in Bayesian Statistics as well as the initiator of the objective Bayes school. In particular, its advances on the derivation of noninformative priors as well as on the scaling of Bayes factors have had a lasting impact on the field. However, the book reflects the characteristics of the time, especially in terms of mathematical rigor. In this paper we point out the fundamental aspects of this reference work, especially the thorough coverage of testing problems and the construction of both estimation and testing noninformative priors based on functional divergences. Our major aim here is to help modern readers in navigating in this difficult text and in concentrating on passages that are still relevant today.Comment: This paper commented in: [arXiv:1001.2967], [arXiv:1001.2968], [arXiv:1001.2970], [arXiv:1001.2975], [arXiv:1001.2985], [arXiv:1001.3073]. Rejoinder in [arXiv:0909.1008]. Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/09-STS284 the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Quantum Gravity and Inflation

Using the Ashtekar-Sen variables of loop quantum gravity, a new class of exact solutions to the equations of quantum cosmology is found for gravity coupled to a scalar field, that corresponds to inflating universes. The scalar field, which has an arbitrary potential, is treated as a time variable, reducing the hamiltonian constraint to a time-dependent Schroedinger equation. When reduced to the homogeneous and isotropic case, this is solved exactly by a set of solutions that extend the Kodama state, taking into account the time dependence of the vacuum energy. Each quantum state corresponds to a classical solution of the Hamiltonian-Jacobi equation. The study of the latter shows evidence for an attractor, suggesting a universality in the phenomena of inflation. Finally, wavepackets can be constructed by superposing solutions with different ratios of kinetic to potential scalar field energy, resolving, at least in this case, the issue of normalizability of the Kodama state.Comment: 18 Pages, 2 Figures; major corrections to equations but prior results still hold, updated reference

Parameterized Inapproximability of Target Set Selection and Generalizations

In this paper, we consider the Target Set Selection problem: given a graph and a threshold value $thr(v)$ for any vertex $v$ of the graph, find a minimum size vertex-subset to "activate" s.t. all the vertices of the graph are activated at the end of the propagation process. A vertex $v$ is activated during the propagation process if at least $thr(v)$ of its neighbors are activated. This problem models several practical issues like faults in distributed networks or word-to-mouth recommendations in social networks. We show that for any functions $f$ and $\rho$ this problem cannot be approximated within a factor of $\rho(k)$ in $f(k) \cdot n^{O(1)}$ time, unless FPT = W[P], even for restricted thresholds (namely constant and majority thresholds). We also study the cardinality constraint maximization and minimization versions of the problem for which we prove similar hardness results

Production of electricity from energy cane in small tropical islands: an ex ante agro-environmental, economic and industrial

Interest in renewable energy from agricultural biomass has increased in recent years. Among renewable energy sources, biomass is considered indeed as an attractive option for sustainable energy production. This is particularly true in the case of small tropical island states, where energy demand is increasing and the energy mix currently heavily relies on fossil imported resources. Diversifying and orientating the energy mix toward locally grown energy crops could therefore be a promising sustainable option. However, the introduction of such bioenergy systems under existing conditions and current agricultural models is still rather uncertain and requires achieving several sustainable goals. In order to build new sustainable energy systems, assessing the conditions for a sustainable and profitable biomass supply is a critical step prior to industrial investment. In this paper we present the results of an interdisciplinary research program aimed at identifying the agro-environmental, economic and industrial conditions for producing electricity from energy cane in Guadeloupe

Convergence of the SMC implementation of the PHD filter

The probability hypothesis density (PHD) filter is a first moment approximation to the evolution of a dynamic point process which can be used to approximate the optimal filtering equations of the multiple-object tracking problem. We show that, under reasonable assumptions, a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) approximation of the PHD filter converges in mean of order p ≥ 1, and hence almost surely, to the true PHD filter. We also present a central limit theorem for the SMC approximation, show that the variance is finite under similar assumptions and establish a recursion for the asymptotic variance. This provides a theoretical justification for this implementation of a tractable multiple-object filtering methodology and generalises some results from sequential Monte Carlo theory

Influence Diffusion in Social Networks under Time Window Constraints

We study a combinatorial model of the spread of influence in networks that generalizes existing schemata recently proposed in the literature. In our model, agents change behaviors/opinions on the basis of information collected from their neighbors in a time interval of bounded size whereas agents are assumed to have unbounded memory in previously studied scenarios. In our mathematical framework, one is given a network $G=(V,E)$, an integer value $t(v)$ for each node $v\in V$, and a time window size $\lambda$. The goal is to determine a small set of nodes (target set) that influences the whole graph. The spread of influence proceeds in rounds as follows: initially all nodes in the target set are influenced; subsequently, in each round, any uninfluenced node $v$ becomes influenced if the number of its neighbors that have been influenced in the previous $\lambda$ rounds is greater than or equal to $t(v)$. We prove that the problem of finding a minimum cardinality target set that influences the whole network $G$ is hard to approximate within a polylogarithmic factor. On the positive side, we design exact polynomial time algorithms for paths, rings, trees, and complete graphs.Comment: An extended abstract of a preliminary version of this paper appeared in: Proceedings of 20th International Colloquium on Structural Information and Communication Complexity (Sirocco 2013), Lectures Notes in Computer Science vol. 8179, T. Moscibroda and A.A. Rescigno (Eds.), pp. 141-152, 201

Using item response theory to explore the psychometric properties of extended matching questions examination in undergraduate medical education

BACKGROUND: As assessment has been shown to direct learning, it is critical that the examinations developed to test clinical competence in medical undergraduates are valid and reliable. The use of extended matching questions (EMQ) has been advocated to overcome some of the criticisms of using multiple-choice questions to test factual and applied knowledge. METHODS: We analysed the results from the Extended Matching Questions Examination taken by 4th year undergraduate medical students in the academic year 2001 to 2002. Rasch analysis was used to examine whether the set of questions used in the examination mapped on to a unidimensional scale, the degree of difficulty of questions within and between the various medical and surgical specialties and the pattern of responses within individual questions to assess the impact of the distractor options. RESULTS: Analysis of a subset of items and of the full examination demonstrated internal construct validity and the absence of bias on the majority of questions. Three main patterns of response selection were identified. CONCLUSION: Modern psychometric methods based upon the work of Rasch provide a useful approach to the calibration and analysis of EMQ undergraduate medical assessments. The approach allows for a formal test of the unidimensionality of the questions and thus the validity of the summed score. Given the metric calibration which follows fit to the model, it also allows for the establishment of items banks to facilitate continuity and equity in exam standards

Brst Cohomology and Invariants of 4D Gravity in Ashtekar Variables

We discuss the BRST cohomologies of the invariants associated with the description of classical and quantum gravity in four dimensions, using the Ashtekar variables. These invariants are constructed from several BRST cohomology sequences. They provide a systematic and clear characterization of non-local observables in general relativity with unbroken diffeomorphism invariance, and could yield further differential invariants for four-manifolds. The theory includes fluctuations of the vierbein fields, but there exits a non-trivial phase which can be expressed in terms of Witten's topological quantum field theory. In this phase, the descent sequences are degenerate, and the corresponding classical solutions can be identified with the conformally self-dual sector of Einstein manifolds. The full theory includes fluctuations which bring the system out of this sector while preserving diffeomorphism invariance.Comment: 15 page

Phage inducible islands in the gram-positive cocci

The SaPIs are a cohesive subfamily of extremely common phage-inducible chromosomal islands (PICIs) that reside quiescently at specific att sites in the staphylococcal chromosome and are induced by helper phages to excise and replicate. They are usually packaged in small capsids composed of phage virion proteins, giving rise to very high transfer frequencies, which they enhance by interfering with helper phage reproduction. As the SaPIs represent a highly successful biological strategy, with many natural Staphylococcus aureus strains containing two or more, we assumed that similar elements would be widespread in the Gram-positive cocci. On the basis of resemblance to the paradigmatic SaPI genome, we have readily identified large cohesive families of similar elements in the lactococci and pneumococci/streptococci plus a few such elements in Enterococcus faecalis. Based on extensive ortholog analyses, we found that the PICI elements in the four different genera all represent distinct but parallel lineages, suggesting that they represent convergent evolution towards a highly successful lifestyle. We have characterized in depth the enterococcal element, EfCIV583, and have shown that it very closely resembles the SaPIs in functionality as well as in genome organization, setting the stage for expansion of the study of elements of this type. In summary, our findings greatly broaden the PICI family to include elements from at least three genera of cocci