Meese-Rogoff Redux: Micro-Based Exchange Rate Forecasting

This paper compares the true, ex-ante forecasting performance of a micro-based model against both a standard macro model and a random walk. In contrast to existing literature, which is focused on longer horizon forecasting, we examine forecasting over horizons from one day to one month (the one-month horizon being where micro and macro analysis begin to overlap). Over our 3-year forecasting sample, we find that the micro-based model consistently out-performs both the random walk and the macro model. Micro-based forecasts account for almost 16 per cent of the sample variance in monthly spot rate changes. These results provide a level of empirical validation as yet unattained by other models. Though our micro-based model out-performs the macro model, this does not imply that past macro analysis has overlooked key fundamentals: our structural interpretation using a fundamentals-based model shows that our findings are consistent with exchange rates being driven by standard fundamentals.Exchange rates, forecasting, Meese and Rogoff, microstructure, order flow

Exchange Rate Fundamentals and Order Flow (July 2004)

This paper addresses the striking ability of transaction flows to explain exchange rate movements. Specifically, we examine whether this arises because transaction flows convey incremental information about fundamentals. If so, then these flows should affect price upon their realization and observation by price setters (marketmakers). Our model is a simple general equilibrium model of information aggregation that provides---in a setting of incomplete markets---a utility-based present-value representation for exchange rates. The model produces testable implications for the relationships between realized transaction flows, current and future exchange rate returns, and future fundamentals (e.g., money supplies). We then bring these implications to the data, making use of a new dataset covering over six years of transactions (which permits estimation at the monthly frequency). We find strong contemporanous effects of transaction flows on exchange rates, corroborating past findings. More importantly, we present four key findings that are both new to the literature and supportive of our model: (1) transaction flows forecast (Granger cause) future macroeconomic variables such as money growth, output growth, and inflation, (2) transaction flows forecast future exchange rates changes, and do so more effectively than forward discounts, (3) the future exchange rate components that current flows forecast are primarily the future non-flow-driven components, and (4) though flows convey new information about future fundamentals, much of this information is still not impounded in the exchange rate 9 months later. The slow pace of learning implies that abstracting from information aggregation---as is standard in exchange rate economics---is not innocuous.Exchange Rate Dynamics, Microstructure, Order Flow.

How is Macro News Transmitted to Exchange Rates? (December 2003)

This paper tests whether macroeconomic news is transmitted to exchange rates via the transactions process and if so, what share occurs via transactions versus the traditional direct channel. We identify the link between order flow and macro news using a heteroskedasticity-based approach, a la Rigobon and Sack (2002). In both daily and intra-daily data, order flow varies considerably with macro news flow. At least half of the effect of macro news on exchange rates is transmitted via order flow.

C, N, O Abundances in the Most Metal-Poor Damped Lyman alpha Systems

This study focuses on some of the most metal-poor damped Lyman alpha absorbers known in the spectra of high redshift QSOs, using new and archival observations obtained with UV-sensitive echelle spectrographs on the Keck and VLT telescopes. The weakness and simple velocity structure of the absorption lines in these systems allows us to measure the abundances of several elements, and in particular those of C, N, and O, a group that is difficult to study in DLAs of more typical metallicities. We find that when the oxygen abundance is less than about 1/100 of solar, the C/O ratio in high redshift DLAs and sub-DLAs matches that of halo stars of similar metallicity and shows higher values than expected from galactic chemical evolution models based on conventional stellar yields. Furthermore, there are indications that at these low metallicities the N/O ratio may also be above simple expectations and may exhibit a minimum value, as proposed by Centurion and her collaborators in 2003. Both results can be interpreted as evidence for enhanced production of C and N by massive stars in the first few episodes of star formation, in our Galaxy and in the distant proto-galaxies seen as QSO absorbers. The higher stellar yields implied may have an origin in stellar rotation which promotes mixing in the stars' interiors, as considered in some recent model calculations. We briefly discuss the relevance of these results to current ideas on the origin of metals in the intergalactic medium and the universality of the stellar initial mass function.Comment: 17 pages, 9 Figures, Accepted for publication in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Societ

Local status and power in area-based health improvement partnerships

This is the authors' PDF version of an article published in Health© 2014. The definitive version is available at http://hea.sagepub.comArea-based initiatives (ABIs) have formed an important part of public policy towards more socio-economically deprived areas in many countries. Co-ordinating service provision within and across sectors has been a common feature of these initiatives. Despite sustained policy interest in ABIs, little empirical work has explored relations between ABI providers and partnership development within this context remains under-theorised. This paper addresses both of these gaps by exploring partnerships as a social and developmental process, drawing on concepts from figurational sociology to explain how provider relations develop within an ABI. Qualitative methods were used to explore, prospectively, the development of an ABI targeted at a town in the north west of England. A central finding was that, although effective delivery of ABIs is premised on a high level of coordination between service providers, the pattern of interdependencies between providers limits the frequency and effectiveness of cooperation. In particular, the interdependency of ABI providers with others in their organisation (what is termed here ‘organisational pull’) constrained the ways in which they worked with providers outside of their own organisations. ‘Local’ status, which could be earned over time, enabled some providers to exert greater control over the way in which provider relations developed during the course of the initiative. These findings demonstrate how historically constituted social networks, within which all providers are embedded, shape partnership development. The theoretical insight developed here suggests a need for more realistic expectations among policy makers about how and to what extent provider partnerships can be managed. Keywords: partnership, collaboration, community services, area-based initiatives, organisational pull, figurational sociologyNational Health Service (NHS

Relativistic MHD with Adaptive Mesh Refinement

This paper presents a new computer code to solve the general relativistic magnetohydrodynamics (GRMHD) equations using distributed parallel adaptive mesh refinement (AMR). The fluid equations are solved using a finite difference Convex ENO method (CENO) in 3+1 dimensions, and the AMR is Berger-Oliger. Hyperbolic divergence cleaning is used to control the $\nabla\cdot {\bf B}=0$ constraint. We present results from three flat space tests, and examine the accretion of a fluid onto a Schwarzschild black hole, reproducing the Michel solution. The AMR simulations substantially improve performance while reproducing the resolution equivalent unigrid simulation results. Finally, we discuss strong scaling results for parallel unigrid and AMR runs.Comment: 24 pages, 14 figures, 3 table

Blur discrimination and its relation to blur-mediated depth perception

Retinal images of three-dimensional scenes often contain regions that are spatially blurred by different amounts, owing to depth variation in the scene and depth-of-focus limitations in the eye. Variations in blur between regions in the retinal image therefore offer a cue to their relative physical depths. In the first experiment we investigated apparent depth ordering in images containing two regions of random texture separated by a vertical sinusoidal border. The texture was sharp on one side of the border, and blurred on the other side. In some presentations the border itself was also blurred. Results showed that blur variation alone is sufficient to determine the apparent depth ordering. A subsequent series of experiments measured blur-discrimination thresholds with stimuli similar to those used in the depth-ordering experiment. Weber fractions for blur discrimination ranged from 0.28 to 0.56. It is concluded that the utility of blur variation as a depth cue is constrained by the relatively mediocre ability of observers to discriminate different levels of blur. Blur is best viewed as a relatively coarse, qualitative depth cue

High-temperature ferromagnetism of spsp electrons in narrow impurity bands: Application to CaB6_6

Ferromagnetism with high Curie temperature $T_c$, well above room temperature, and very small saturation moment has been reported in various carbon and boron systems. It is argued that the magnetization must be very inhomogeneous with only a small fraction of the sample ferromagnetically ordered. It is shown that a possible source of high $T_c$ within the ferromagnetic regions is itinerant electrons occupying a narrow impurity band. Correlation effects do not reduce the effective interaction which enters the Stoner criterion in the same way as in a bulk band. It is also shown how, in the impurity band case, spin wave excitations may not be effective in lowering $T_c$ below its value given by Stoner theory. These ideas are applied to CaB$_6$ and a thorough review of the experimental situation in this material is given. It is suggested that the intrinsic magnetism of the B$_2$ and O$_2$ dimers might be exploited in suitable structures containing these elements.Comment: 26 pages, 2 figure