Taurek, numbers and probabilities

In his paper, “Should the Numbers Count?" John Taurek imagines that we are in a position such that we can either save a group of five people, or we can save one individual, David. We cannot save David and the five. This is because they each require a life-saving drug. However, David needs all of the drug if he is to survive, while the other five need only a fifth each.Typically, people have argued as if there was a choice to be made: either numbers matter, in which case we should save the greater number, or numbers don't matter, but rather there is moral value in giving each person an equal chance of survival, and therefore we should toss a coin. My claim is that we do not have to make a choice in this way. Rather, numbers do matter, but it doesn't follow that we should always save the greater number. And likewise, there is moral value in giving each person an equal chance of survival, but it doesn't follow that we should always toss a coin.In addition, I argue that a similar approach can be applied to situations in which we can save one person or another, but the chances of success are different

Clarification of the Bootstrap Percolation Paradox

We study the onset of the bootstrap percolation transition as a model of generalized dynamical arrest. We develop a new importance-sampling procedure in simulation, based on rare events around "holes", that enables us to access bootstrap lengths beyond those previously studied. By framing a new theory in terms of paths or processes that lead to emptying of the lattice we are able to develop systematic corrections to the existing theory, and compare them to simulations. Thereby, for the first time in the literature, it is possible to obtain credible comparisons between theory and simulation in the accessible density range.Comment: 4 pages with 3 figure

Physical activity is prospectively associated with adolescent nonalcoholic fatty liver disease

Objectives: The aim of the present study was to assess whether objectively measured physical activity at mean ages 12 and 14 years are prospectively associated with ultrasound scan liver fat and stiffness (alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase [AST], and [gamma]-glutamyl transferase [GGT]) assessed at mean age 17.8 years. Methods: Participants were from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. Total physical activity (counts per minute) and minutes of moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) were measured using ActiGraph accelerometers at mean ages 12 and 14 years. Results: Greater total physical activity and MVPA at ages 12 and 14 years were associated with lower odds of liver fat and lower GGT levels at mean age 17.8 years, such as per 15-minute increase in daily MVPA at age 12 years, the confounder adjusted odds ratio of liver fat was 0.47 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.27–0.84). Associations attenuated after additional adjustment for fat mass as a potential confounder (eg, per 15-minute increase in daily MVPA at age 12 years, the odds ratio of liver fat attenuated to 0.65 [95% CI 0.35–1.21]) or a potential mediator (eg, per 15-minute increase in daily MVPA at age 12 years the odds ratio of liver fat attenuated to 0.59 [95% CI 0.32–1.09]). Results did not further attenuate after additional adjustment for insulin resistance. There was some evidence that greater total physical activity and MVPA at age 12 years were associated with the higher AST levels. Conclusions: Adolescents who were more active in childhood have lower odds of fatty liver and lower GGT levels. These findings are likely to be, at least in part, explained by adiposity

Maternal thyroid function and child educational attainment: prospective cohort study

Objective: To determine if first trimester maternal thyroid dysfunction is a critical determinant of child scholastic performance and overall educational attainment. Design: Prospective cohort study. Setting: Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children cohort in the UK. Participants: 4615 mother-child pairs with an available first trimester sample (median 10 weeks gestation, interquartile range 8-12). Exposures: Free thyroxine, thyroid stimulating hormone, and thyroid peroxidase antibodies assessed as continuous measures and the seven clinical categories of maternal thyroid function. Main outcome measures: Five age-specific national curriculum assessments in 3580 children at entry stage assessment at 54 months, increasing up to 4461 children at their final school assessment at age 15. Results: No strong evidence of clinically meaningful associations of first trimester free thyroxine and thyroid stimulating hormone levels with entry stage assessment score or Standard Assessment Test scores at any of the key stages was found. Associations of maternal free thyroxine or thyroid stimulating hormone with the total number of General Certificates of Secondary Education (GCSEs) passed (range 0-16) were all close to the null: free thyroxine, rate ratio per pmol/L 1.00 (95% confidence interval 1.00 to 1.01); and thyroid stimulating hormone, rate ratio 0.98 (0.94 to 1.02). No important relationship was observed when more detailed capped scores of GCSEs allowing for both the number and grade of pass or when language, mathematics, and science performance were examined individually or when all educational assessments undertaken by an individual from school entry to leaving were considered. 200 (4.3%) mothers were newly identified as having hypothyroidism or subclinical hypothyroidism and 97 (2.1%) subclinical hyperthyroidism or hyperthyroidism. Children of mothers with thyroid dysfunction attained an equivalent number of GCSEs and equivalent grades as children of mothers with euthyroidism. Conclusions: Maternal thyroid dysfunction in early pregnancy does not have a clinically important association with impaired child performance at school or educational achievement

Use of soil moisture information in yield models

There are no author-identified significant results in this report

Cohort profile: the avon longitudinal study of parents and children: ALSPAC mothers cohort

The Avon Longitudinal Study of Children and Parents (ALSPAC) was established to understand how genetic and environmental characteristics influence health and development in parents and children. All pregnant women resident in a defined area in the South West of England, with an expected date of delivery between 1st April 1991 and 31st December 1992, were eligible and 13 761 women (contributing 13 867 pregnancies) were recruited. These women have been followed over the last 19–22 years and have completed up to 20 questionnaires, have had detailed data abstracted from their medical records and have information on any cancer diagnoses and deaths through record linkage. A follow-up assessment was completed 17–18 years postnatal at which anthropometry, blood pressure, fat, lean and bone mass and carotid intima media thickness were assessed, and a fasting blood sample taken. The second follow-up clinic, which additionally measures cognitive function, physical capability, physical activity (with accelerometer) and wrist bone architecture, is underway and two further assessments with similar measurements will take place over the next 5 years. There is a detailed biobank that includes DNA, with genome-wide data available on >10 000, stored serum and plasma taken repeatedly since pregnancy and other samples; a wide range of data on completed biospecimen assays are available. Details of how to access these data are provided in this cohort profile

An effective long-range attraction between protein molecules in solutions studied by small angle neutron scattering

Small angle neutron scattering intensity distributions taken from cytochrome C and lysozyme protein solutions show a rising intensity at very small wave vector, Q, which can be interpreted in terms of the presence of a weak long-range attraction between protein molecules. This interaction has a range several times that of the diameter of the protein molecule, much greater than the range of the screened electrostatic repulsion. We show evidence that this long-range attraction is closely related to the type of anion present and ion concentration in the solution

Intrauterine Growth and Intelligence Within Sibling Pairs: Findings From the Mater-University Study of Pregnancy and its Outcomes

Objective: To examine the association between intrauterine growth and intelligence. Design: Population based birth cohort study of sibling pairs born within a maximum of three years of each other. Setting: Mater-University women and children's hospital, Brisbane, Australia. Participants: 235 (470 children) sibling pairs. Results: Among one randomly selected sibling from each pair verbal comprehension at age 5, general intelligence at age 14, and reading ability at age 14 increased linearly with increasing gestational age and sex standardised birth weight z scores. With adjustment for maternal age, race, and smoking during pregnancy, birth order, family income, and parental education the associations with verbal comprehension at age 5 and general intelligence at age 14 remained, whereas the association with reading ability at age 14 was attenuated to the null. Within sibling pairs, differences in intrauterine growth were positively associated with differences in verbal comprehension at age 5 (test score difference per one unit difference in birth weight z score = 1.52 (0.11 to 3.26)) and general intelligence at age 14 (1.09 (0.01 to 2.18)), but not with reading ability at age 14. Conclusions: Socioeconomic position or other fixed maternal characteristics do not seem to explain the positive association between intrauterine growth and childhood intelligence

The importance of both setting and intensity of physical activity in relation to non-clinical anxiety and depression

Physical activity is associated with good physical and mental health. Current recommendations suggest that people should achieve 30 minutes of moderate-intensity activity most days of the week to gain health benefits. This activity may be accumulated in leisure time, in active commuting, at work or in the home. Here we look at the cross-sectional relationship between physical activity and mental health as measured by the HADS anxiety and depression scores in a sample of 1,742 participants from a Scottish general population survey. The participants were men and women in three age cohorts aged around 24, 44 and 64 years who, in 1995, were interviewed face to face and also self-completed the HADS depression and anxiety scale. Respondents reported their levels of physical activity at work, in the home and in leisure time; the intensities of activity were also determined. Physical activity was related to depression scores but not to anxiety scores. There was no relationship between work physical activity and depression score. Among women, depression score increased with each additional episode of vigorous home activity. In both sexes, depression score decreased with each additional episode of vigorous leisure activity, but among men the decrease in depression score with moderate leisure activity was reversed if a lot of moderate activity was undertaken. We have found a variable relationship between depression scores and various settings for physical activity. Researchers, policymakers and practitioners who are interested in the relationship between physical activity and mental health should take into account the setting for activity as well as frequency, duration and intensity of activity