Tree-Ring-Reconstructed Summer Temperatures from Northwestern North America during the Last Nine Centuries*

Northwestern North America has one of the highest rates of recent temperature increase in the world, but the putative “divergence problem” in dendroclimatology potentially limits the ability of tree-ring proxy data at high latitudes to provide long-term context for current anthropogenic change. Here, summer temperatures are reconstructed from a Picea glauca maximum latewood density (MXD) chronology that shows a stable relationship to regional temperatures and spans most of the last millennium at the Firth River in northeastern Alaska. The warmest epoch in the last nine centuries is estimated to have occurred during the late twentieth century, with average temperatures over the last 30 yr of the reconstruction developed for this study [1973–2002 in the Common Era (CE)] approximately 1.3° ± 0.4°C warmer than the long-term preindustrial mean (1100–1850 CE), a change associated with rapid increases in greenhouse gases. Prior to the late twentieth century, multidecadal temperature fluctuations covary broadly with changes in natural radiative forcing. The findings presented here emphasize that tree-ring proxies can provide reliable indicators of temperature variability even in a rapidly warming climate

Tree-ring-reconstructed summer temperatures from northwestern North America during the last nine centuries

Northwestern North America has one of the highest rates of recent temperature increase in the world, but the putative “divergence problem” in dendroclimatology potentially limits the ability of tree-ring proxy data at high latitudes to provide long-term context for current anthropogenic change. Here, summer temperatures are reconstructed from a Picea glauca maximum latewood density (MXD) chronology that shows a stable relationship to regional temperatures and spans most of the last millennium at the Firth River in northeastern Alaska. The warmest epoch in the last nine centuries is estimated to have occurred during the late twentieth century, with average temperatures over the last 30 yr of the reconstruction developed for this study [1973–2002 in the Common Era (CE)] approximately 1.3° ± 0.4°C warmer than the long-term preindustrial mean (1100–1850 CE), a change associated with rapid increases in greenhouse gases. Prior to the late twentieth century, multidecadal temperature fluctuations covary broadly with changes in natural radiative forcing. The findings presented here emphasize that tree-ring proxies can provide reliable indicators of temperature variability even in a rapidly warming climate

Blue intensity from a tropical conifer’s annual rings for climate reconstruction : an ecophysiological perspective

This research was funded by the National Science Foundation of the USA research grants AGS 12-03818 and AGS 13-03976, with additional funding from the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory’s Climate Center and Climate and Life initiatives.We developed Blue Intensity (BI) measurements from the crossdated ring sequences of Fokienia hodginsii (of the family Cupressaceae) from central Vietnam. BI has been utilized primarily as an indirect proxy measurement of latewood (LW) density of conifers (i.e., LWBI) from high latitude, temperature-limited boreal forests. As such, BI closely approximates maximum latewood density (MXD) measurements made from soft x-ray. The less commonly used earlywood (EW) BI (EWBI) represents the minimum density of EW and is influenced by the lighter pixels from the vacuoles or lumens of cells. The correlation of our BI measurements with climate, strongest for EWBI, rivals that for total ring width (RW), and we demonstrate that it can be successfully employed as an independent predictor for reconstruction models. EWBI exhibits robust spatial correlations with winter and spring land temperature, sea surface temperature (SST) over the regional domain of ENSO, and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) over Indochina. However, in order to mitigate the effects of color changes at the heartwood – sapwood boundary we calculated ΔBI (EWBI-LWBI), and it too exhibits a significant (p < 0.05), temporally stable response to prior autumn (Oct-Nov) rainfall and winter (December to April) dry season temperature. We interpret this response as reflecting a potential cavitation defense by reducing lumen diameter as a means to safeguard hydraulic conductivity in the stem, and to prevent the xylem from imploding due to negative pressure. This study has wide implications for the further use of BI from the global tropics, though it is unclear how many tropical tree species will be appropriate for use. It seems very likely that other wood anatomical measurements can be combined with BI and RW for climate reconstruction.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Discrete seasonal hydroclimate reconstructions over northern Vietnam for the past three and a half centuries

We present a 350-year hydroclimatic year (HY) index for northern Vietnam derived from three discrete seasonal reconstructions from tree rings: an index of autumn rainfall from the earlywood widths of Chinese Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga sinensis), the first such record from this species, and two nearby published Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) reconstructions from cypress (Fokienia hodginsii) tree rings for spring and summer, respectively. Autumn rainfall over the study region constitutes only around 9% of the annual total, but its variability is strongly linked to the strength of the atmospheric gradient over Asia during the transition from the boreal summer to winter monsoons. Deficit or surplus of autumn rainfall enhances or mitigates, respectively, the impact of the annual winter dry season on trees growing on porous karst hillsides. The most protracted HY drought (dry across all seasons) occurred at the turn of the twentieth century at a time of relative quiet, but a mid-to-late eighteenth century multi-year HY drought coincided with a period of great societal turmoil across mainland Southeast Asia and the Tay Son Rebellion in northern Vietnam. A mid-nineteenth century uprising accompanied by a smallpox epidemic, crop failure and famine, occurred during the worst autumn drought of the past two and a half centuries but only moderate drought in spring and summer. The “Great Vietnamese Famine” of the mid-twentieth century was dry only in autumn, with a wet spring and an average summer

Tropical tree growth driven by dry-season climate variability

Interannual variability in the global land carbon sink is strongly related to variations in tropical temperature and rainfall. This association suggests an important role for moisture-driven fluctuations in tropical vegetation productivity, but empirical evidence to quantify the responsible ecological processes is missing. Such evidence can be obtained from tree-ring data that quantify variability in a major vegetation productivity component: woody biomass growth. Here we compile a pantropical tree-ring network to show that annual woody biomass growth increases primarily with dry-season precipitation and decreases with dry-season maximum temperature. The strength of these dry-season climate responses varies among sites, as reflected in four robust and distinct climate response groups of tropical tree growth derived from clustering. Using cluster and regression analyses, we find that dry-season climate responses are amplified in regions that are drier, hotter and more climatically variable. These amplification patterns suggest that projected global warming will probably aggravate drought-induced declines in annual tropical vegetation productivity. Our study reveals a previously underappreciated role of dry-season climate variability in driving the dynamics of tropical vegetation productivity and consequently in influencing the land carbon sink.We acknowledge financial support to the co-authors provided by Agencia Nacional de Promoción Científica y Tecnológica, Argentina (PICT 2014-2797) to M.E.F.; Alberta Mennega Stichting to P.G.; BBVA Foundation to H.A.M. and J.J.C.; Belspo BRAIN project: BR/143/A3/HERBAXYLAREDD to H.B.; Confederação da Agricultura e Pecuária do Brasil - CNA to C.F.; Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES, Brazil (PDSE 15011/13-5 to M.A.P.; 88881.135931/2016-01 to C.F.; 88887.199858/2018-00 to G.A.-P.; Finance Code 001 for all Brazilian collaborators); Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico - CNPq, Brazil (ENV 42 to O.D.; 1009/4785031-2 to G.C.; 311874/2017-7 to J.S.); CONACYT-CB-2016-283134 to J.V.-D.; CONICET to F.A.R.; CUOMO FOUNDATION (IPCC scholarship) to M.M.; Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft - DFG (BR 1895/15-1 to A.B.; BR 1895/23-1 to A.B.; BR 1895/29-1 to A.B.; BR 1895/24-1 to M.M.); DGD-RMCA PilotMAB to B.T.; Dirección General de Asuntos del Personal Académico of the UNAM (Mexico) to R.B.; Elsa-Neumann-Scholarship of the Federal State of Berlin to F.S.; EMBRAPA Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation to C.F.; Equatorian Dirección de Investigación UNL (21-DI-FARNR-2019) to D.P.-C.; São Paulo Research Foundation FAPESP (2009/53951-7 to M.T.-F.; 2012/50457-4 to G.C.; 2018/01847‐0 to P.G.; 2018/24514-7 to J.R.V.A.; 2019/08783-0 to G.M.L.; 2019/27110-7 to C.F.); FAPESP-NERC 18/50080-4 to G.C.; FAPITEC/SE/FUNTEC no. 01/2011 to M.A.P.; Fulbright Fellowship to B.J.E.; German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) to M.I. and M.R.; German Ministry of Education, Science, Research, and Technology (FRG 0339638) to O.D.; ICRAF through the Forests, Trees, and Agroforestry research programme of the CGIAR to M.M.; Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI-SGP-CRA 2047) to J.V.-D.; International Foundation for Science (D/5466-1) to M.I.; Lamont Climate Center to B.M.B.; Miquelfonds to P.G.; National Geographic Global Exploration Fund (GEFNE80-13) to I.R.; USA’s National Science Foundation NSF (IBN-9801287 to A.J.L.; GER 9553623 and a postdoctoral fellowship to B.J.E.); NSF P2C2 (AGS-1501321) to A.C.B., D.G.-S. and G.A.-P.; NSF-FAPESP PIRE 2017/50085-3 to M.T.-F., G.C. and G.M.L.; NUFFIC-NICHE programme (HEART project) to B.K., E.M., J.H.S., J.N. and R. Vinya; Peru ‘s CONCYTEC and World Bank (043-2019-FONDECYT-BM-INC.INV.) to J.G.I.; Peru’s Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Científico, Tecnológico y de Innovación Tecnológica (FONDECYT-BM-INC.INV 039-2019) to E.J.R.-R. and M.E.F.; Programa Bosques Andinos - HELVETAS Swiss Intercooperation to M.E.F.; Programa Nacional de Becas y Crédito Educativo - PRONABEC to J.G.I.; Schlumberger Foundation Faculty for the Future to J.N.; Sigma Xi to A.J.L.; Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute to R. Alfaro-Sánchez.; Spanish Ministry of Foreign Affairs AECID (11-CAP2-1730) to H.A.M. and J.J.C.; UK NERC grant NE/K01353X/1 to E.G.Peer reviewe

Thresholds for warming-induced growth decline at elevational tree line

[1] A few tree ring studies indicate recent growth declines at northern latitudes. The precise causes are not well understood. Here we identify a temperature threshold for decline in a tree ring record from a well-established temperature-sensitive site at elevational tree line in northwestern Canada. The positive ring width/temperature relationship has weakened such that a pre-1965 linear model systematically overpredicts tree ring widths from 1965 to 1999. A nonlinear model shows an inverted U-shaped relationship between this chronology and summer temperatures, with an optimal July– August average temperature of 11.3°C based on a nearby station. This optimal value has been consistently exceeded since the 1960s, and the concurrent decline demonstrates that even at tree line, trees can be negatively affected when temperatures warm beyond a physiological threshold. If warming continues without significant gains in effective precipitation, the large-scale greening of recent decades could be replaced by large-scale browning. Such browning could slow or reverse carbon uptake by norther